Extended Abstract (136K)8.3
Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm Assessment
Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and C. Fidalgo and D. Sims
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program has sponsored research and development activities aimed at improving the detection and forecasting of Clear Air Turbulence (CAT). The National Center for Atmospheric Research has developed the Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm (ITFA) as a result of these efforts. ITFA is composed of numerous CAT indices that are calculated using the forecasted fields of the Rapid Update Cycle and assigned weighting factors based on turbulence observations obtained from pilot reports. The output and weighing factors are integrated, with the resulting final output displayed as graphical forecasts of CAT.
In support of ITFA's development in 2002, the FAA William J. Hughes Technical Center (WJHTC) Weather Branch (ACT-320) is performing a user assessment of the ITFA. The assessment is examining the utility and benefit of ITFA to airline dispatchers and meteorologists. As part of the assessment, ACT-320 meteorologists are reviewing ITFA on a daily basis identifying trends in model output and performance. In addition, the user feedback is providing indication of conditions where ITFA performs well, along with conditions where it does not perform as well. Any trends identified will be further examined in regards to the underlying meteorological conditions. Results of the assessment will be used in making enhancements to ITFA and will be used in considerations of ITFA becoming an operational product.
Session 8, Phenomenological Forecasting II
Wednesday, 14 August 2002, 1:30 PM-3:00 PM
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