The THOR Project Improved thunderstorm forecasts for aviation and the general public

This paper describes a proposal for a multi-year operational field test called the THunderstorm Operational Research Project. The project involves using the National Weather Service's (NWS's) System for Convection Analysis and Nowcasting (SCAN) to establish a baseline accuracy for short-term thunderstorm forecasting. Experiments will be conducted to quantify the human-forecaster's skill in improving upon automated thunderstorm forecasts. NWS forecasters will prepare and issue new digital/graphical thunderstorm forecasts for external users including FAA terminal and in route air traffic controllers as well as local emergency managers. The proposed test areas include Central Florida and Northeast Texas. Both regions experience a high frequency of spring and summertime thunderstorms that have a large impact on commercial aviation operations. The THOR project will allow the NWS to accelerate its efforts to provide digital products to better support the Nation's aviation weather system.