18th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, and Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Tuesday, 31 July 2001
Mesoscale StochasticóDynamic Weather Prediction for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games
Andrew J. Siffert, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. J. Onton and W. J. Steenburgh
Poster PDF (37.1 kB)
During 8-24 Feb 2002 an estimated 1.5 million people will converge on the Salt Lake City area for the Winter Olympics. Approximately 3,500 of the world's best athletes will compete at venues in and around the complex terrain of the Wasatch Mountains and adjoining region. With more than 100,000 spectators and athletes attending and traveling to Olympic events each day, accurate weather forecasts are critical for public safety and Winter Games logistics.

This talk will describe a mesoscale stochastic-dynamic modeling system that provides point-specific forecasts for Olympic outdoor venues and weather-sensitive locations along major transportation corridors. The point-specific forecasts of temperature, dew point, relative humidity, and wind speed and direction are based on MOS-type equations developed using three years of cool-season observations and 12-km grid-spacing forecasts by the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Reseach Mesoscale Model (MM5). The modeling system thus provides objective guidance at many sites not covered by NGM or AVN MOS. The accuracy of the MM5-based MOS system will be compared to the direct model output and the typical errors produced by NGM and AVN MOS. The strengths and weaknesses of using high-resolution model forecasts to develop MOS-type equations for point-specific forecasts in regions of complex terrain will also be discussed.

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