18th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, and Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Sun 29 July

SUN 29 JULY

Conference Registration

1

Opening Reception with Conference Overview (Cash Bar)

Mon 30 July

MON 30 JULY

1

Conference Registration Continues through Thursday, 2 August

Conference registration continues through Thursday 2 August

Welcoming Remarks and Joint Session Overview

Organizers: Cliff F. Mass, Univ. of Washington; William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology & Oceanography Command

Joint Session 1

Mesoscale Models

Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )

Organizers: Cliff F. Mass, Univ. of Washington; William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command

Papers:

9:10 AM

J1.1

Operational overview of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)

Ed Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. Wegiel, S. Applequist, and S. Hausman

9:30 AM

J1.2

The next version of the Canadian operational GEM regional mesoscale model

Jocelyn Mailhot, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and S. Bélair, A. Tremblay, A. Méthot, B. Bilodeau, L. -. P. Crevier, and A. Glazer

9:50 AM

J1.3

Recent and Planned Changes to the NCEP Eta Analysis and Forecast System

Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, G. J. DiMego, Y. Lin, K. E. Mitchell, D. Parrish, M. B. Ek, and B. Ferrier

10:10 AM

J1.4

Recent developments of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

Teddy R. Holt, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt, S. Chen, J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, D. Westphal, X. Hong, J. Pullen, M. Liu, J. Cummings, A. Mirin, and G. A. Sugiyama

Poster PDF (87.7 kB)

1

Coffee Break

Joint Session 1

Mesoscale Models: Continued

Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )

Papers:

11:00 AM

J1.5

Prototypes for the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) Model

William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Klemp and J. Dudhia

Poster PDF (703.9 kB)

11:20 AM

J1.6

Current Status of the ARPS Modeling System

Kelvin K. Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

11:40 AM

J1.6a

Discussion

1

Lunch Break

1

Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO

1

Numerical Data Assimilation Techniques

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Edward Barker, NRL

Papers:

1:00 PM

1.1

DAO's next generation physical-space/finite-volume data assimilation system: Formulation and initial evaluation

Arlindo M. da Silva, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. -. J. Lin, J. Joiner, and D. P. Dee

1:20 PM

1.2

Recent developments of the Met Office 3D-Var system

N. Bruce Ingleby, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. P. Ballard, R. S. Bell, A. Berney, B. Candy, S. English, D. Li, A. C. Lorenc, R. J. Renshaw, and J. K. Ridley

Poster PDF (46.8 kB)

1:40 PM

1.3

Implementation of the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System

Edward Barker, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Daley and J. Goerss

Poster PDF (107.1 kB)

2:00 PM

1.4

The operational 4D-Var data assimilation system of Meteo-France: specific characteristics and behaviour in the special case of the 99 Xmas storms over France

Jean-François Geleyn, Météo France, Toulouse, France; and D. Banciu, M. Bellus, R. El Khatib, P. Moll, P. Saez, and J. N. Thépaut

Poster PDF (203.3 kB)

1

Improving Understanding of Physical Processes and their Parameterizations

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: Brian A. Colle, SUNY

Papers:

1:00 PM

1.1

On the importance of saturation effects in the turbulence scheme of a mesoscale model

David R. Stauffer, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. C. Muñoz and N. L. Seaman

1:15 PM

1.2

Recent improvements for surface and microphysical schemes in the MesoNH mesoscale model

Patrick Jabouille, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Pinty, V. Masson, and F. Solmon

Poster PDF (983.0 kB)

1:30 PM

1.3

Preliminary Results from IMPROVE: A Field Study to Verify and Improve Bulk Microphysical Parameterizations in Mesoscale Models

Mark T. Stoelinga, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. V. Hobbs, J. D. Locatelli, and C. F. Mass

Poster PDF (143.8 kB)

1:45 PM

1.4

Weather Research and Forecast model physics: Status, crucial issues and plans

John M. Brown, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. Black, S. H. Chen, J. Dudhia, S. Y. Hong, J. S. Kain, X. Z. Liang, M. Sinclair, W. K. Tao, and M. Xue

2:00 PM

1.5

Parameterized convection with ensemble closure/feedback assumptions

Georg A. Grell, NOAA/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. Dévényi

Poster PDF (141.0 kB)

1.6

Improving bulk microphysics parameterization using satellite observations

2:15 PM

1.6A

Modeling the interaction between boundary layer and shallow clouds using a TKE and a shallow convection parameterization (formerly paper P1.5)

Ricardo C. Muñoz, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and N. L. Seaman, D. R. Stauffer, and A. Deng

1

Poster Session Overview

Coffee Break

Poster Session 1

Improving physical parameterizations in mesoscale models—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Papers:

P1.1

Mesoscale cloud scheme assessment using satellite observations

Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Laboratoire d'Aerologie, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Pinty, J. P. Cammas, P. J. Mascart, and J. P. Lafore

http://www.aero.obs-mip.fr/chajp/

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

P1.2

Evaluation of a Turbulent Mixing Length Parameterization Applied to the Case of an Approaching Upper-Tropospheric Trough

Douglas K. Miller, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Walters and A. Slavin

Poster PDF (234.9 kB)

P1.3

Performance of the updated explicit microphysics in the 20km RUC

P1.4

On the development of a comprehensive land surface model

Vince C. Wong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Y. Kong

P1.5

Paper has been moved to Session 1, new paper number 1.6A

P1.6

Model sensitivity to wildfire-induced changes in soil albedo, vegetation cover, and soil moisture

P1.7

Response of Convection to Dry Layers: Simulation and Parameterization Tests

James A. Ridout, NRL, Monterey, CA

Poster PDF (120.6 kB)

P1.8

Paper has been moved to session 3, new paper number 3.7

P1.9

Storm Initialization of Hurricane Bonnie Using SSM/I Brightness Temperatures: Preliminary Results

C. Amerault, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and K. Park, X. Zou, G. -. S. Liu, and J. Hawkins

Poster PDF (588.6 kB)

P1.10

Spring 2001 changes to NCEP Eta analysis and forecast system: NOAH land-surface model

Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR Visiting Scientist, Suitland, MD; and K. E. Mitchell, E. Rogers, V. I. Koren, J. C. Schaake, D. Tarpley, D. Lohmann, P. Grunmann, Q. Duan, and C. Peters-Lidard

P1.11

Mesoscale numerical simulations of the 7 June 1997 severe weather outbreak in southern New Mexico and far west Texas

P1.12

Application of the PSU shallow-convection parameterization scheme in 3-D environments

Aijun Deng, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and N. L. Seaman, D. R. Stauffer, and R. C. Muñoz

P1.13

A Comparison of Bulk Aerodynamic Methods for Calculating Air-sea Fluxes

Qing Wang, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. P. Eleuterio

P1.14

Evaluating convective momentum fluxes using remotely sensed data

John R. Mecikalski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

P1.15

Low-level jet dynamics and parameterization of surface fluxes in the stable boundary layer

Robert M. Banta, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. K. Newsom and J. K. Lundquist

P1.16

Effects of convectively generated gravity wave drag on a numerically predicted heavy rainfall event occurred near the Jiri mountain, Korea

Hye-Yeong Chun, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and S. H. Sohn

Poster PDF (568.5 kB)

P1.17

Paper has been moved to oral session 2, number 2.5A

P1.17a

Parameterizing boundary layer clouds using PDF methods (Formerly paper 2.5)

Vincent E. Larson, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and J. C. Golaz and W. R. Cotton

Poster PDF (64.3 kB)

P1.18

A Photosynthesis-based Gas-Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) coupled with a Land Surface Scheme for Mesoscale Applications

Dev dutta S. Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. Alapaty and S. Raman

Poster PDF (34.9 kB)

P1.19

Towards development of a new Level 2.5 turbulence parameterization for predicting non-equilibrium ABL-driven mesoscale flows

Frank R. Freedman, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and M. Z. Jacobson

P1.20

Impacts of parameterized convection on the numerical simulation of heavy rain over East Asia

Young-Youn Park, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and T. Y. Lee

P1.21

Implementation of an Urban Canopy Parameterization in MM5 for Meso-Gamma-Scale Air Quality Modeling Applications

Tanya L. Otte, NOAA/ARL and U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and A. Lacser

P1.22

Boundary Layer Turbulence and Surface Flux Parameterizations in a Mesoscale Model—verification with Aircraft Measurements

Qing Wang, NPS, Monterey, CA; and K. Rados, J. Kalogiros, H. Zuo, S. Wang, C. Friehe, D. Khelif, and H. Jonsson

P1.23

Grid resolution and surface flux and boundary layer parameterizations in high-resolution mesoscale models (formerly paper 3.1)

Michelle Whisenhant, NPS, Monterey, CA; and Q. Wang, S. Wang, and J. D. Doyle

Poster Session 1

Poster Session - Numerical Data Assimilation Techniques—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC

Papers:

P1.1

Regional studies and applications with a variable-resolution stretched-grid data assimilation system

Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, College Park, MD

P1.2

Assimilation and forecast of Hurricane Floyd with the DAO Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System

Jiun-Dar Chern, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. J. Lin and A. M. da Silva

P1.3

A finite-volume “shaving” method for interfacing NASA/DAO’s Physical Space Statistical Analysis System to the finite-volume GCM with a Lagrangian control-volume vertical coordinate

Shian-Jiann Lin, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva

P1.4

Moisture analysis in the DAO physical-space/finite-volume data assimilation system

Dick P. Dee, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva

P1.5

Model bias correction in the DAO physical-space/finite-volume data assimilation system

Banglin Zhang, General Sciences Corp., Beltsville and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. P. Dee, A. M. da Silva, and R. Todling

P1.6

A Tendency-Correction Procedure for Assimilating Rainfall Data in the Presence of Model Errors

Sara Zhang, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva and A. Y. Hou

P1.7

Global 3D variational analysis on physical space

Wan-Shu Wu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and R. J. Purser

Poster PDF (65.5 kB)

P1.8

The Met Office 3D-Var stratosphere-troposphere data assimilation system

Richard Swinbank, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and N. B. Ingleby, P. M. Boorman, and R. J. Renshaw

Poster PDF (101.3 kB)

P1.9

Evaluation of a bogus vortex technique using four-dimensional variational data assimilation

Zhao-Xia Pu, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Braun

P1.10

Impact of Diabatic Processes on 4-Dimensional Variation with the Global Spectral Model at NCEP/NOAA

S. Zhang, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and X. Zou and J. E. Ahlquist

P1.11

On providing a cloud-balanced initial condition for diabatic initialization

John A. McGinley, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Smart

P1.12

Adaptive tuning of observation error parameters in a variational data assimilation

Gerald Desroziers, Meteo France, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and B. Chapnik, S. Ivanov, and F. Rabier

Poster PDF (98.4 kB)

P1.13

Estimation of model and data biases using the variational data assimilation method

Chungu Lu, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and O. Talagrand

Joint Poster Session 1

Poster Session - Mesoscale Models—with Coffee Break

Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )

Organizer: Ed Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency

Papers:

JP1.1

On the concept of relative buoyancy

Charles A. Doswell III, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. M. Markowski

JP1.2

Foretell: An operational forecasting system designed for the surface transportation community

John S. Snook, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder, CO

JP1.3

Regional scale modeling for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games

Daryl J. Onton, CIRP, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and A. J. Siffert, L. Cheng, W. J. Steenburgh, and B. Haymore

Poster PDF (50.7 kB)

JP1.4

Commercial Application of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS)

Richard L. Carpenter Jr., Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Norman, OK; and G. M. Bassett

Poster PDF (433.8 kB)

JP1.5

Development of A coupled air-lake mesoscale model for operational marine forecasting in the Great Lakes region

Peter J. Sousounis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and G. E. Mann, D. J. Schwab, and R. B. Wagenmaker

Poster PDF (247.8 kB)

JP1.6

An objective evaluation and regime classification of RAMS forecast errors during the 2000 Florida warm season

Jonathan L. Case, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied Meteorology Unit/ENSCO Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco, A. V. Dianic, D. E. Harms, and P. N. Rosati

Poster PDF (93.1 kB)

JP1.7

Comparison Between the Performance of Eta and Sigma Modes in the NCEP Meso Eta Model

Hui-Ya Chuang, General Sciences Corp., Camp Springs, MD; and G. J. DiMego and T. Black

Poster PDF (3.7 MB)

JP1.8

Event-based verification of mesoscale model wind forecasts using SSM/I

Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA

JP1.9

A quantitative comparison of MM5 cloud forecasts and GOES cloud analyses

Michael A. Kelly, Litton-TASC, Chantilly, VA; and R. J. Alliss, M. E. Loftus, and J. C. Lefever

Poster PDF (102.2 kB)

JP1.10

Mesoscale numerical modeling: comparative analysis of convective initiation between dissimilar mesoscale numerical models

Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and W. Shulz and A. J. Reiss

Poster PDF (103.4 kB)

JP1.11

High-resolution simulations of Hurricane Floyd using MM5 with vortex-following mesh refinement

Joseph E. Tenerelli, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Poster PDF (716.0 kB)

JP1.12

Uses Of High-resolution Mesoscale Modeling To Support Army Research and Development, Testing, and Evaluation

Scott Swerdlin, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, T. Warner, and J. F. Bowers

Poster PDF (159.0 kB)

JP1.13

Extratropical Transitions: Forecasted vs. Observed Evolution

Eyad H. Atallah, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (4.1 MB)

JP1.14

A numerical simulation of a rare lake-effect snowfall in Western Nevada

Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/NWS, Reno, NV; and J. Corey and D. R. Koracin

JP1.15

The construction of the numerical schemes in the Hermitian finite elements spaces

Ireneusz A. Winnicki, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland

http://

Poster PDF (31.1 kB)

JP1.16

Ageostrophic Forcing in a height tendency equation: two case studies.

Anthony R. Lupo, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO

Poster PDF (63.4 kB)

1

Numerical Data Assimilation Techniques: Continued

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

4:00 PM

1.5

An overview of the DAO Terra GEOS Data Assimilation System

Ricardo Todling, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. L. Takacs

4:20 PM

1.6

The Canadian 3D-Var Analysis Scheme on model vertical coordinate

Clément Chouinard, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and C. Charette, J. Hallé, P. Gauthier, J. Morneau, and R. Sarrazin

Poster PDF (283.4 kB)

4:40 PM

1.7

Data Assimilation at the Air Force Weather Agency

Richard L. Ritz, Affiliated Computer Services, Inc., Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and M. D. McAtee and R. T. Swanson Jr.

2

Moist Processes

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland

Papers:

4:00 PM

2.1

The theoretical foundation for models of moist convection

Peter R. Bannon, Penn State University, University Park, PA

4:15 PM

2.2

Utilizing the Eta model with two different convective parameterizations to predict convective initiation and evolution at the SPC

John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, P. R. Janish, and S. J. Weiss

Poster PDF (297.5 kB)

4:30 PM

2.3

The handling of return moisture flow in the Eta model

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. E. Mitchell and S. J. Weiss

4:45 PM

2.4

A comparison study of cumulus parameterization schemes for precipitating systems in the Taiwan area

Ming-Jen Yang, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Q. C. Tung

Poster PDF (62.5 kB)

5:00 PM

2.5

Paper Has been moved to poster session P1, number P1.17A

5:01 PM

2.5a

Development of a new parameterization for representing boundary layer clouds in mesoscale models (formerly paper P1.17)

Jean-Christophe Golaz, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and V. E. Larson and W. R. Cotton

Poster PDF (233.0 kB)

5:15 PM

2.5b

Discussion

Panel Discussion 1

Joint Panel and Group Discussion: How will the role of humans in mesoscale weather prediction change during the next few decades?

Sponsors: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Moderator: William Burnett, Naval Meteorology & Oceanography Command

Panelists: Paul Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin; John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ.; Neil Stuart, NOAA/NWS; Kim Curry, NPMOC

Tues 31 July

TUE 31 JULY

Joint Session 2

Mesoscale Data Assimilation (Parallel with Session 3)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )

Organizers: Cliff F. Mass, Univ. of Washington; William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology & Oceanography Command

Papers:

8:00 AM

J2.1

A Three-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Scheme For a Storm Scale Model

Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. Brewster, F. H. Carr, and K. K. Droegemeier

Poster PDF (514.6 kB)

J2.2

Preliminary results with the nested version of NAVDAS data assimilation system for COAMPS

8:15 AM

J2.3

The 20-km version of the RUC

Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Grell, S. S. Weygandt, T. L. Smith, T. G. Smirnova, B. E. Schwartz, D. Kim, D. Devenyi, K. J. Brundage, J. M. Brown, and G. S. Manikin

Poster PDF (235.7 kB)

8:55 AM

J2.2A

Assimilating Single-Doppler Radar Observations into Mesoscale Models (Formerly Mesoscale paper 4.4)

Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and W. Gu and J. Gong

8:30 AM

J2.0a

Potential Applications of 4D-Var for Mesoscale Data Assimilation (invited presentation) (Formerly Paper J2.13)

Xiaolei Zou, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

9:10 AM

J2.3a

Discussion

9:25 AM

J2.0b

Discussion

3

Boundary layer processses (Parallel with session J2)

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: James D. Doyle, NRL

Papers:

8:00 AM

3.1

Paper has been moved to Poster Sesison 1, new paper number P1.23)

8:01 AM

3.2

Mesoscale variability in boundary layer development over the southern Great Plains

Ankur R. Desai, Pen State Univ., Universtiy Park, PA; and K. J. Davis, D. R. Stauffer, B. P. Reen, R. J. Dobosy, and S. Ismail

Poster PDF (80.4 kB)

8:15 AM

3.3

Validation of boundary-layer parameterizations in a maritime storm using aircraft data

P. Ola G. Persson, CIRES and NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and B. Walter, J. W. Bao, and S. A. Michelson

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

8:30 AM

3.4

Improving Surface Flux Parameterization at Low Wind Speeds in the Navy COAMPS

Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and Q. Wang

8:45 AM

3.5

Mesoscale variability in coastal marine atmospheric boundary layers

Tracy Haack, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. D. Burk and R. M. Hodur

9:00 AM

3.6

Horizontal scale selection and the role of gravity waves in the convective boundary layer (formrerly paper 10.7)

Todd P. Lane, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Clark

9:15 AM

3.7

The effect of boundary layer parameterizations on mesoscale model simulations (formerly paper P1.8)

Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA

9:30 AM

3.7a

Coffee Break

1

Coffee Break

4

Assimilating Mesoscale data (Please note all papers in this session have been moved. See below for new paper numbers)

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Papers:

10:00 AM

4.1

Paper has been moved to Session 11, new paper number 11.4A

10:01 AM

4.2

Paper moved to session 10, new paper number 10.3A

10:02 AM

4.3

Paper has been moved to Joint Session J2, new paper number J2.12

10:03 AM

4.4

Paper has been moved to Joint Session J2, new paper number J2.2A

5

Numerics and model structure (Parallel with session J2)

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin

Papers:

10:00 AM

5.1

The Effects of Nonhydrostatic Dynamics in High Resolution Numerical Forecasts

Zavisa I. Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

Poster PDF (259.0 kB)

10:15 AM

5.2

The influence of numerical algorithms on explicitly simulated coherent cloud structures

Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

10:30 AM

5.3

A semi-lagrangian dynamical core for the non-hydrostatic wrf model

R. James Purser, General Sciences Corporation, Beltville, MD; and T. Fujita, S. K. Kar, and J. G. Michalakes

Poster PDF (904.5 kB)

10:45 AM

5.4

Application of the equivalent geopotential to the Penn/NCAR mesoscale model(MM5) for improving precipitation prediction over mountainous regions

Qiu-Shi Chen, Byrd Polar Research Center and Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and L. Bai and D. H. Bromwich

Poster PDF (2.8 MB)

11:00 AM

5.5

Forecast guidance from high resolution nests in the NCEP Meso Eta Model

Thomas J. Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and E. Rogers and G. J. DiMego

Joint Session 2

Mesoscale Data Assimilation: Continued (Parallel with session 5)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )

Papers:

10:00 AM

J2.4

Initial Verification Of The MM5 3DVAR Data Assimilation System

Dale M. Barker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Huang, Y. R. Guo, and F. C. Vandenberghe

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/3dvar/

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

10:15 AM

J2.5

The WRF 3D-Var analysis system

W.-S. Wu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Xue, T. W. Schlatter, R. J. Purser, M. D. McAtee, J. Gao, D. Devenyi, J. C. Derber, D. M. Barker, S. G. Benjamin, and R. Aune

Poster PDF (582.4 kB)

10:29 AM

J2.6

Paper has been moved to Joint Poster Session JP2, Paper Number JP2.5A

10:30 AM

J2.7

Spring 2001 changes to NCEP Eta analysis and forecast system: assimilation of observed precipitation data

Ying Lin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. E. Baldwin, K. E. Mitchell, E. Rogers, and G. J. DiMego

10:45 AM

J2.8

The four-dimensional variational data assimilation system for the JMA mesoscale model

Ko Koizumi, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

Poster PDF (320.6 kB)

J2.9

An integrated three-dimensional objective analysis scheme in use at the Storm Prediction Center

11:00 AM

J2.10

3DVAR analysis in the Rapid Update Cycle

Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. Weygandt

Poster PDF (212.5 kB)

11:15 AM

J2.11

An operational mesoscale RT-FDDA analysis and forecast system

Jennifer M. Cram, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, S. Low-Nam, R. S. Sheu, L. Carson, C. A. Davis, T. Warner, and J. F. Bowers

http://atec-server.rap.ucar.edu/model/fddad22.html

Poster PDF (76.1 kB)

J2.12

Adjusting Soil temperature and Moisture using Surface Observations: intial results from a single column model (Formerly Mesoscale Paper 4.3)

11:30 AM

J2.6a

EXPLICIT INITIALIZATION OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN MESOSCALE FORECAST MODELS (Formerly Paper JP2.5)

Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. A. McGinley and P. Schultz

Poster PDF (58.6 kB)

11:45 AM

J2.9a

Data assimilation & forecast tests of a new integration scheme for the Met Office Unified Model (Formerly WAF/NWP paper P2.15)

Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. Davies, R. S. Bell, and A. M. Clayton

Poster PDF (115.2 kB)

6

Mesoscale Coastal Circulations (Parallel with session J2)

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ.

Papers:

11:15 AM

6.1

The Santa Cruz Eddy: observations and numerical simulations

Cristina L. Archer, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and M. Z. Jacobson

Poster PDF (428.4 kB)

11:30 AM

6.2

Numerical simulations of a landfalling cold front observed during COAST: Rapid evolution and responsible mechanisms

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. F. Smull and M. J. Yang

Poster PDF (764.6 kB)

11:45 AM

6.3

The impact of California's coastal mountains on the observed frontal evolution during a major land-falling winter storm

Paul J. Neiman, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and P. O. G. Persson, F. M. Ralph, and D. P. Jorgensen

12:00 PM

6.3a

Lunch Break

1

Lunch Break

1

Joint Weather Briefing By Miami NWS WFO

Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO

6

Mesoscale Coastal Circulations: Continued

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Papers:

1:00 PM

6.4

Comparisons between lidar measurements and model simulations of the sea breeze at Monterey Bay

Lisa S. Darby, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Banta and R. A. Pielke Sr.

Poster PDF (2.1 MB)

1:15 PM

6.5

The subtropical sea breeze

John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

Poster PDF (60.2 kB)

1:30 PM

6.6

Vertical pollutant transport by the sea-breeze front at Galveston Bay in opposing synoptic flow

Robert M. Banta, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and C. J. Senff, L. S. Darby, and R. J. Alvarez

2

Winter 2000–2001 Storm Events

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Papers:

1:00 PM

2.1

Sensitivity to initial state and grid resolution in the prediction of the January 2000 East Coast snowstorm

Fuqing Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno

1:20 PM

2.2

AFWA MM5 Performance During the "Millenium Storm" and the Winter 2000–2001 Storm Season

Gordon R. Brooks, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and R. J. Swanson Jr., R. J. Craig, R. B. Telfeyan, J. J. Wesely, C. Stock, and R. Nielsen

Poster PDF (87.1 kB)

1:40 PM

2.3

Impact of initial conditions on local modeling

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and G. Bryan

Poster PDF (77.8 kB)

2:00 PM

2.4

Experiments with the NCEP Eta model for the 30–31 December 2000 East Coast Snowstorm : sensitivity to initial conditions and sea surface temperature

Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. S. Manikin and K. Brill

7

Orographic Systems

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State

Papers:

1:45 PM

7.1

Mesoscale precipitation structures during the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment

David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

2:00 PM

7.2

The Dynamics of Mountain-Induced Rotors

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Durran

2:15 PM

7.3

The mesoscale meteorology of the Columbia River Gorge

Justin Sharp, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

Poster PDF (530.5 kB)

1

Poster Session Overview

Poster Session 2

Mesoscale Data Assimilation for numerical weather prediction and research applications—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Papers:

P2.1

Assimilation of multi-sensor Rainfall Observations for Improved Quantitative Prediction Forecasts

S. Q. Peng, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou

Poster PDF (402.6 kB)

P2.2

Mesoscale numerical models and field observation platforms to evaluate airborne transport of hazardous substances in the boundary layer

Arthur L. Doggett IV, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and T. E. Gill, C. B. Chang, and R. E. Peterson

Poster PDF (12.4 kB)

P2.3

Using improved background error covariances from an ensemble Kalman filter for targeted observations

Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/ERL/CDC and CIRES, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder

Poster PDF (257.8 kB)

P2.4

Mesoscale Stochastic—Dynamic Weather Prediction for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games

Andrew J. Siffert, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. J. Onton and W. J. Steenburgh

Poster PDF (37.1 kB)

P2.5

Numerical simulations of hurricane Bret (21-23 August 1999) observed by TRMM

Olivier Nuissier, CNRS, Toulouse, France; and F. Roux and N. Viltard

Poster PDF (3.3 MB)

P2.6

Preliminary results of the GPS PW assimilation in to a limited-area model: A case study for IOP8 MAP/SOP

Claudia Faccani, Univ. of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; and R. Ferretti, C. Scairretta, R. Pacione, F. Vespe, and G. Visconti

P2.7

Simulation of Hurricane Bret fluxes and impact of high resolution satellite-derived SSTs

Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. S. Reddy and R. Miller

P2.8

The impact of initial data and analysis methods on MM5 forecasts of convective systems

James F. Bresch, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. C. Vandenberghe

P2.9

Analysis of the mesoscale precipitation band associated with the 24-25 January 2000 storm

Daryl T. Kleist, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and H. M. Kim and M. C. Morgan

Poster PDF (731.6 kB)

P2.10

Ensemble Based Error Covariance Matrices for Mesoscale Variational Data Assimilation

P2.11

Assimilation of rain rates using satellite data by a regional spectral model

Ana Maria Bueno Nunes, Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil

P2.12

Comparison of the SSM/I Satellite Observations with MM5 simulations

S.-H. Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. C. Vandenberghe, G. Petty, W. Huang, and J. F. Bresch

P2.13

Influence of surface heterogeneities on boundary layer dynamics and secondary coherent circulations

Adrian Marroquin, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Pielke Sr.

Poster Session 2

Poster Session - Numerical Data Assimilation or Analysis: Case Studies and Validation—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command

Papers:

P2.1

Experiences from SCRAPE2000—Summer Convective Rainfall in Alabama Prediction Experiment

John T. Bradshaw, NOAA/NWS, Calera, AL; and R. E. Kilduff, R. E. McNeil, K. J. Pence, P. Hart, and W. M. Lapenta

P2.2

Sensitivity of short-term forecasts from the Navy COAMPS to grid configuration and data assimilation

Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur

P2.3

Evaluation of Local-Scale Forecasts for Severe Weather of July 20, 2000

Daniel Birkenheuer, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L. Shaw, S. Albers, and E. J. Szoke

Poster PDF (200.3 kB)

P2.4

Comparisons of RUC 20-km and 40-km forecasts for 24 May 2000

Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. E. Schwartz and J. M. Brown

Poster PDF (148.7 kB)

P2.5

Short-term forecasting at Kennedy Space Center using the ARPS Data Analysis System

Timothy D. Oram, NASA/Spaceflight Meteorology Group, Houston, TX; and T. Garner and J. L. Case

Poster PDF (158.7 kB)

P2.6

Operational Use of Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation at Dugway Proving Ground

Susan E. Krippner, U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT; and S. F. Halvorson, J. M. Cram, Y. Liu, and S. Low-Nam

Poster PDF (121.8 kB)

P2.7

A Quantitative Evaluation On The Performance Of A Real-Time Mesoscale FDDA And Forecasting System Under Different Synoptic Situations

Rong-Shyang Sheu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Cram, Y. Liu, and S. Low-Nam

Poster PDF (51.2 kB)

P2.8

Remarks on Northern Hemisphere forecast error sensitivity from 1996 to 2000

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Gelaro

P2.9

A Meteorological Reanalysis for 1991 Persian Gulf War

J. J. Shi, SAIC, McLean, VA; and S. W. Chang, T. R. Holt, and T. F. Hogan

Poster PDF (42.1 kB)

P2.10

A study on forecasting two cases of severe convection: implications for forecast guidance

Milton S. Speer, BOM, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and L. Qi

P2.11

Interesting issues regarding precipitation verification

P2.12

Effects of NCEP/DOE Reanalysis Soil Moisture on Forecast Skill

P2.13

The effect of using LAPS in the mesoscale numerical prediction for heavy rainfall

Seung-On Hwang, MRI, Seoul, Korea; and Y. -. S. Kim and J. -. W. Seo

Poster PDF (340.0 kB)

P2.14

Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation for MM5 and COAMPS

Duanjun Lu, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and P. J. Croft, P. J. Fitzpatrick, and S. Reddy

Poster PDF (166.8 kB)

P2.15

Paper has been move to Joint Session J2, Paper Number J2.9A

P2.16

Comparison of SSM/I derived sea surface winds with NWP model analysis

R. M. Khaladkar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; and P. N. Mahajan and P. K. Pal

P2.17

Verification of RAMS forecast sea breezes and thunderstorm initiation over east-central Florida

Jonathan L. Case, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied Meteorology Unit/ENSCO Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco, A. V. Dianic, D. E. Harms, and P. N. Rosati

Poster PDF (110.3 kB)

P2.18

Toward a surface data time continuum: use of the Kalman Filter to Create a Continuous, Quality Controlled Surface Data Set (Formerly Paper Number 6.3)

John A. McGinley, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (415.8 kB)

Poster Session 3

The development of the mesoscale prediction models—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Papers:

P3.1

Operational fire weather support through the use of a mesoscale forecast model

Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWSFO, Grand Junction, CO; and E. M. Page, R. L. McAnelly, and W. R. Cotton

P3.2

The sensitivity of nesting strategy of the NCEP regional spectral model

Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Y. Hong

Poster PDF (79.7 kB)

P3.3

An upper boundary condition for nonhydrostatic models absorbing both gravity and acoustic waves

R. James Purser, General Sciences Corporation, Beltsville, MD; and S. K. Kar

Poster PDF (675.0 kB)

P3.4

A Mesoscale Model for Global Medium-Range Weather Forecasting in Canada

Stéphane Bélair, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Mailhot, A. Tremblay, A. M. Leduc, A. Méthot, M. Roch, and P. Vaillancourt

P3.5

Mesoscale model evaluation of a new integration scheme for the Met Office Unified Model

Andrew J. Malcolm, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. Davies, H. Lean, and P. Clark

Poster PDF (139.8 kB)

Joint Poster Session 2

Poster Session - Mesoscale Data Assimilation—with Coffee Break

Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )

Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ.

Papers:

JP2.1

Impact of model error and precipitation observations in mesoscale 4DVAR data assimilation

JP2.2

Cloud/hydrometeor initialization for the 20-km RUC using satellite and radar data

Dongsoo Kim, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin

Poster PDF (79.6 kB)

JP2.3

A Real-time, Three-dimensional Cloud Analysis System at the Naval Research Laboratory

Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Cook, K. Sashegyi, Q. Xu, and L. Wei

JP2.4

Expanding the Variational Methods in the LAPS Moisture Analysis

Daniel Birkenheuer, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (162.1 kB)

JP2.5

Paper Number JP2.5 has been moved to Joint Session J2, Paper Number J2.6A

JP2.5a

The use of three-dimensional analyses of cloud attributes for diabatic initialization of mesoscale models (Formerly Paper J2.6)

Paul Schultz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Albers

JP2.6

NIDS-Based Intermittent Diabatic Assimilation and Application to Storm-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction

Donghai Wang, Hampton Univ. and NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and K. K. Droegemeier, D. Jahn, K. -. M. Xu, M. Xue, and J. Zhang

Poster PDF (759.9 kB)

JP2.7

On the Added Value of High-Resolution Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Data in a Mesoscale Model

Brian P. Reen, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, K. J. Davis, A. R. Desai, and R. J. Dobosy

Poster PDF (162.7 kB)

JP2.8

The introduction of a local objective analysis module in the numerical forecast system at the Brazilian national weather service

Ligia R. Bernardet, Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Brasilia, Brazil; and R. B. Silveira, J. P. Edwards, J. M. D. Mol, and A. F. M. Falcão

Poster PDF (9.6 kB)

JP2.9

An operational Local Data Integration System (LDIS) at NWS Melbourne

Peter F. Blottman, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt, D. W. Sharp, A. J. Cristaldi III, J. L. Case, and J. Manobianco

JP2.10

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data into Mesoscale Models

William M. Lapenta, NASA/MSFC NSSTC, Huntsville, AL; and R. Suggs, R. T. McNider, G. Jedlovec, and S. R. Dembek

JP2.11

Application of the Bratseth Scheme for High Latitude Intermittent Data Assimilation Using the PSU/NCAR MM5 Mesoscale Model

Xingang Fan, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and J. S. Tilley

Poster PDF (306.1 kB)

JP2.12

Revisiting the utility of Newtonian nudging for four dimensional data assimilation in high latitude mesoscale forecasts

Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and X. Fan

Poster PDF (410.4 kB)

JP2.13

Use of a Snow Prediction Scheme in a Mesoscale Realtime FDDA System

Simon Low-Nam, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, J. M. Cram, Y. Liu, R. S. Sheu, and J. Dudhia

Poster PDF (165.3 kB)

JP2.14

Impact of Continuous Real-Time FDDA on Short-Term (0-12 hour) Forecasts

Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Cram, C. A. Davis, T. Warner, S. Low-Nam, and R. S. Sheu

Poster PDF (259.0 kB)

JP2.15

New sea-surface temperature analysis implemented at NCEP

Jean Thiebaux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Katz and W. Wang

JP2.16

Operational evaluation of the new sea-surface temperature analysis implemented at NCEP

JP2.17

Refractivity Data Assimilation

Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Nai, T. Rogers, T. Haack, and S. Burk

JP2.18

A MM5-based four-dimensional variational analysis system developed for distributed memory multiprocessor computers

Frank H. Ruggiero, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA; and G. D. Modica, T. Nehrkorn, M. Cerniglia, J. G. Michalakes, and X. Zou

Poster PDF (77.7 kB)

Coffee Break

2

Winter 2000-2001 Storm Events: Continued

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

4:00 PM

2.5

Verification and Evaluation of NOGAPS and COAMPS Analyses and Forecasts for the 24–26 January 2000 East Coast Cyclone

Carlyle H. Wash, NPS, Monterey, CA; and G. Schmeiser and P. M. Pauley

http://www.met.nps.navy.mil/~wash/WAF/paper.doc

Poster PDF (12.5 kB)

4:20 PM

2.6

Observation Sensitivity and the Mix of Observing Systems

Nancy L. Baker, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. H. Langland

Poster PDF (135.8 kB)

4:40 PM

2.7

Using lagged average forecasts to identify initialization errors

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. E. Hart

Poster PDF (163.2 kB)

7

Orographic Systems: Continued

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Papers:

4:00 PM

7.4

Microphysical timescales and orographic precipitation

Qingfang Jiang, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and R. B. Smith

4:15 PM

7.5

Stratified flows past 3D ridges at intermediate Rossby number

Craig C Epifanio, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Muraki and R. Rotunno

4:30 PM

7.6

Essential Ingredients for heavy Orographic Rainfall and their Potential Application for Prediction

Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Chiao, J. A. Thurman, M. L. Kaplan, and T. -. A. Wang

Poster PDF (160.5 kB)

4:45 PM

7.7

Orographic precipitation and airmass drying over the Alps: Preliminary results from MAP IOP2B

Ronald B. Smith, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and Q. Jiang, M. G. Fearon, J. D. Doyle, and R. Benoit

5:00 PM

7.8

Orographic precipitation processes associated with the Wasatch Mountains during IPEX IOP3

Justin A. W. Cox, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh, D. E. Kingsmill, and B. A. Colle

Poster PDF (176.4 kB)

5:15 PM

7.3A

Structure of wake north of the Alps: Study of PV banners during an episode of deep South Foehn

Vanda Grubišic, DRI, Reno, NV

Poster PDF (191.5 kB)

5:30 PM

7.8a

Discussion

Panel Discussion 2

Joint Panel and Group Discussion: Has Mesoscale modeling outpaced our undersatnding of basic physical processes?

Sponsors: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Moderator: Charles Doswell III, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma

Panelists: Cliff Mass, Univ. of Washington; Kelvin Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma; Jimy Dudhia, NCAR; Richard Hodur, NRL

1

Wed 1 Aug

WED 1 AUG

3

Numerical Data Assimilation or Analysis: Case Studies and Validation

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO

Papers:

8:00 AM

3.1

Recent Development Activities in Weather, Water and Climate Forecast System Development at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center

Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Petersen, G. J. DiMego, H. L. Pan, D. B. Rao, M. Ji, K. E. Mitchell, J. C. Derber, and N. Surgi

8:20 AM

3.2

On 4D-Var and the use of pressure tendency data to analyse the intensification-rate of baroclinic storms

Erik H. Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

8:40 AM

3.3

Studies with the DAO Retrospective Analysis System

Ricardo Todling, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and Y. Zhu

Poster PDF (207.3 kB)

9:00 AM

3.4

Verification of 20-km RUC surface and precipitation forecasts

Barry E. Schwartz, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin

Poster PDF (284.9 kB)

9:20 AM

3.5

Assimilation and Forecasting Experiments on Supercell Storms: Part I: Experiments with Simulated Data

Juanzhen Sun, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook

9:40 AM

3.6

Assimilation and forecasting experiments on supercell storms. Part II: Experiments with WSR-88D data

N. Andrew Crook, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun

8

Mesoscale Model Verification

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: W. James Steenburgh, NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Regional Prediction and Univ. of Utah

Papers:

8:15 AM

8.1

A Preliminary Study of Surface Temperature Cold Bias in COAMPS

Hung-Neng S. Chin, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and M. J. Leach, G. A. Sugiyama, and F. J. Aluzzi

Poster PDF (246.4 kB)

8:30 AM

8.2

Does Increasing Horizontal Resolution Produce Better Forecasts? The Results of Two Years of Real-Time Numerical Weather Prediction in the Pacific Northwest

Cliff F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Ovens, K. Westrick, and B. A. Colle

8:45 AM

8.3

Verification of mesoscale features in NWP models

Michael E. Baldwin, NOAA/NWS/SPC and NOAA/NSSL/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and S. Lakshmivarahan and J. S. Kain

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/etakf/verf/

Poster PDF (93.7 kB)

9:00 AM

8.4

Evaluation of the Timing and Strength of MM5 and Eta Surface Trough Passages over the Eastern Pacific (formerly paper P4.11)

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and C. F. Mass and D. Ovens

9:15 AM

8.4a

Discussion

9

Mesoscale predictability and ensembles

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Papers:

9:30 AM

9.1

Short Term Mesoscale Ensembles over the Southwest United States during the Monsoon

David R. Bright, NOAA/NWSFO, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen and D. J. Stensrud

9:45 AM

9.2

Predictability studies with the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system

M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du

10:00 AM

9.3

Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest

Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

10:15 AM

9.4

Sensitivity of the 3-4 May 1999 Tornadic Outbreak to Synoptic Scale Initial Conditions

Paul J. Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and D. M. Schultz and R. Romero

10:30 AM

9.5

Status report on the predictability of mesoscale gravity waves with numerical weather prediction models

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO

9.6

The influence of moist convection on the predictability of large scales

10:45 AM

9.7

Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction of Mid-latitude Cyclones

Mohan K. Ramamurthy, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. Cui

11:00 AM

9.8

A Comparison of Mesoscale Model Forecast Accuracy Using Random and a Simplified Targetting Approach

Wendell A. Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. K. Miller

Poster PDF (110.9 kB)

11:14 AM

9.9

Inferences of predictability associated with warm season precipitation episodes

R. E. Carbone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Tuttle, D. A. Ahijevych, and S. B. Trier

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/episodes

Poster PDF (334.9 kB)

11:29 AM

9.10

Forecast evaluation of a mixed-physics ensemble

Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen, D. J. Stensrud, and H. E. Brooks

Poster PDF (665.5 kB)

11:44 AM

9.2a

Coffee Break

12:14 PM

9.6a

Tests of an ensemble Kalman filter at convective scales (formerly paper P6.1 in 18WAF/14NWP)

C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun, N. A. Crook, and F. Zhang

Poster PDF (39.9 kB)

12:29 PM

9.7a

Discussion

12:44 PM

9.7b

Lunch Break (12:00–1:00 p.m.)

1:14 PM

9.7c

Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO (12:30-1:00 p.m.)

1:44 PM

9.7d

Session 9: Continued

1

Coffee Break

3

Numerical Data Assimilation or Analysis: Case Studies and Validation: Continued

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

10:30 AM

3.7

Verification of cloud forecasts with in-situ aircraft measurements

Hong Guan, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and S. G. Cober and G. A. Isaac

10:50 AM

3.8

Extreme Rainfall Prediction for a Watershed on the East Coast of Australia

Lance M. Leslie, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and M. S. Speer and L. Qi

11:10 AM

3.9

OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE LAPS-MM5 "HOT START" LOCAL FORECAST MODEL

Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and E. R. Thaler and E. J. Szoke

Poster PDF (363.3 kB)

11:30 AM

3.10

On the relative importance of operational aircraft winds and satellite-derived winds in the depiction of atmospheric flow in the North Pacific

Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. Barker

Poster PDF (25.3 kB)

1

Lunch Break

1

Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO

4

Instruments and Data Collection

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

Papers:

1:00 PM

4.1

Observing System Simulation Experiments for NPOESS

Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Masutani, J. S. Woollen, J. C. Derber, R. Atlas, J. Terry, G. D. Emmitt, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, and T. J. Kleespies

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/nwp2001/index.html

1:20 PM

4.2

The Impact of QuikScat on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. C. Bloom, J. Ardizzone, E. Brin, J. Terry, and T. -. W. Yu

Poster PDF (412.5 kB)

1:40 PM

4.3

Satellite data assimilation: impact on tropical cyclone forecast

J.-M. Willemet, Météo France, Ste Clotilde, La Réunion, France; and A. Lasserre-Bigorry

Poster PDF (36.2 kB)

2:00 PM

4.4

observations and numerical simulations of tropopause PV trough filamentation and "Cut-Off" Low development over the North Pacific Ocean

Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/OAR/ETL, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang, C. S. Velden, D. Parrish, and Z. Toth

10

Convective Systems

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: Morris L. Weisman, NCAR

Papers:

1:45 PM

10.1

Simple numerical simulations of convective lines with leading stratiform precipitation

Matthew D. Parker, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

2:00 PM

10.2

On adequate resolution for the simulation of deep moist convection: theory and preliminary simulations

George H. Bryan, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

http://www.ems.psu.edu/~bryan/mpc2001/

Poster PDF (182.8 kB)

2:15 PM

10.3

The sensitivity of modeled supercell storm dynamics to several cloud microphysical parameters

Susan C. Van den Heever, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

Poster PDF (106.1 kB)

2:30 PM

10.3A

Fine scale initialization and prediction of convective systems over French mountainous areas (formerly paper 4.2)

Didier Ricard, CNRM and Météo France, Toulouse, France; and V. Ducrocq and J. P. Lafore

Poster PDF (2.0 MB)

1

Poster Session Overview

Coffee Break

Poster Session 3

Poster Session - Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Carlyle H. Wash, NPS

Papers:

P3.1

Development of MOS Thunderstorm and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast Equations with Multiple Data Sources

Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

P3.2

A statistical system for short-term probabilistic forecasts of thunderstorms using high-resolution datasets

Joby L. Hilliker, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

P3.3

Wildfire outbreak and suppression: Cases from 1998 Florida Wildfires

Charles H. Paxton, NOAA/NWS, Ruskin, FL; and A. G. Laing, S. L. Goodrick, and C. Maxwell

Poster PDF (438.7 kB)

P3.4

On the formation of a strong snowfall gradient in a Midwestern snowstorm: Wave synergy, deformation, and the TROWAL

Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and D. Cissell and C. E. Halcomb

P3.5

Left-moving thunderstorms in a high plains, weakly-sheared environment

John F. Weaver, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. F. Dostalek and L. Phillips

Poster PDF (354.1 kB)

P3.6

Poster has been moved to Poster Session P5, number P5.17

P3.7

APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES TO ANALYSIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AND FRONTOLYSIS PROCESSES

Dariusz Chaladyniak, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and I. A. Winnicki

P3.8

Numerical models results application to mesoscale weather forecasting

Slawomir A. Pietrek, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and J. M. Jasinski

P3.9

Improving forecasts of dense fog over north Florida

Mark R. Jarvis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg, P. H. Ruscher, and A. I. Watson

P3.10

Multi-dimensional analysis of an extreme thundersnow event during the 30 December 2000 snowstorm

Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA

Poster PDF (856.2 kB)

P3.11

Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm 2001 Meteorological Evaluation

Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and D. Sims and V. Passetti

Poster PDF (101.6 kB)

P3.12

Model Trends and Satellite Imagery in Forecasting

Brian Motta, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Grumm and A. Mostek

Poster PDF (184.7 kB)

P3.13

Mesoscale Meteorology "Primer": Training for the Operational Forecaster

Wendell A. Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA; and W. T. Curry

Poster PDF (404.0 kB)

P3.14

An Extensive Set of NWP Training Materials on the Web

Richard E. Cianflone, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and W. Schreiber-Abshire, W. Bua, and S. Jascourt

P3.15

Cold front or baroclinic trough?

P3.16

An Evaluation of the National Weather Service Severe Weather Warning Performance in Florida Based on the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 (WSR-88D)

Fred R. Johnson, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and P. T. Welsh and C. Herbster

P3.17

Advancing Operational Forecasting Through Collaborative Applied Research Programs at the Storm Prediction Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory

Paul R. Janish, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin

Poster PDF (107.0 kB)

P3.18

A discovery of high efficient summer drought and flood forecast field with eddy energy hysteresis phenomena existence in fact

Poster Session 4

Mesoscale Predictability and Ensembles—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Papers:

P4.1

Evaluation of RAMS surface wind forecasts for the Chesapeake Bay during the Coastal Marine Demonstration Project

Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Aikman III and J. G. W. Kelley

Poster PDF (90.9 kB)

P4.2

Gauging mesoscale predictability of an unusual high latitude snow event via a multi-model intercomparison

Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and R. Thoman

Poster PDF (270.0 kB)

P4.3

The behavior of low-level vorticity and circulation surges of a modeled supercell

Brian J. Gaudet, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

Poster PDF (91.0 kB)

P4.4

Eta model forecasts for the millennium snowstorm of 30-31 December 2000

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs and SAIC/GSC, Beltsville, MD; and K. F. Brill

P4.5

Impact of soil moisture initialization on a simulated flash flood

C. Travis Ashby, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

Poster PDF (425.1 kB)

P4.6

Wind energy forecasts and ensemble uncertainty from the RUC

Kevin J. Brundage, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and M. N. Schwartz

Poster PDF (45.4 kB)

P4.7

Balanced initialization procedures and mesoscale predictability

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang

P4.8

Quantifying the impact of observations using ensembles

P4.9

Implementation of a Real-Time Short Range Ensemble Forecasting System at NCEP: An Update

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Tracton

http://lnx48.wwb.noaa.gov/SREF/SREF.html

Poster PDF (56.0 kB)

P4.10

Evaluation of high resolution MM5 and Eta forecasts over the Northeast U.S

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. S. Tongue and J. B. Olson

Poster PDF (962.6 kB)

P4.11

Paper has been moved to session 8, new paper number 8.4

P4.12

Quantifying the predictability and uncertainty of models to improve aviation forecasts

Steven R. Silberberg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Kansas City, MO

P4.13

Dynamic selection from among an ensemble of lateral boundary conditions for limited-area models

Paul A. Nutter, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (80.5 kB)

P4.14

Predictability of convection at 24-48h forecast range using a very-high resolution (6 km) NWP model

Michael A. Fowle, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

P4.15

Numerical simulation of a right-moving storm over France

Katia Chancibault, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and V. Ducrocq and J. P. Lafore

Poster PDF (2.8 MB)

P4.16

Variability in warm-season MCS rainfall predictability

Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

P4.17

Inertial instability: Climatology and possible relationship to severe weather predictability

Russ S. Schumacher, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and D. M. Schultz

P4.18

The use of a 10km ensemble to improve warm season MCS rainfall prediction

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov

P4.19

24-48h predictability of lake-enhanced snowbands in the 2-3 January 1999 Midwest blizzard

James E. Sieveking, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

P4.20

An Evaluation of Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) During the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX)

P4.21

An examination of the operational predictability of mesoscale terrain-induced features in eastern Colorado from several models

Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L. Shaw

http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/szoke/mesoconf/cases_homepage.html

Poster PDF (134.1 kB)

Poster Session 5

New insights regarding mesoscale structure based on recent field experiments and new observing platforms—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Papers:

P5.1

Lake Michigan Surface Temperature Variations and Impacts on Convective Intensity

David A. R. Kristovich, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, M. C. Peters, and M. S. Timlin

Poster PDF (113.2 kB)

P5.2

Tropopause fold and cyclogenesis: a case study from FASTEX

P5.3

Vertical structure and characteristics of two leading stratiform mesoscale convective systems

Crystalyne R. Pettet, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

Poster PDF (3.8 MB)

P5.4

Precipitation efficiency of Midwestern mesoscale convective systems deduced from GOES soundings

Stacy N. Allen, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market and R. Scofield

P5.5

Profiler Observations of Boundary Layer Convergence Zones

Kevin R. Knupp, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Walters

P5.6

Scale-discriminating vorticity budget for a mesoscale convective vortex

Jason C. Knievel, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

Poster PDF (189.7 kB)

P5.7

Observational analyses of the fine-scale wind and moisture characteristics in MAP IOP-2B and IOP-8

P5.8

The death of a mid-level cloud

Vincent E. Larson, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and R. P. Fleishauer, J. A. Kankiewicz, D. L. Reinke, and T. H. Vonder Haar

Poster PDF (164.4 kB)

P5.9

Paper has been moved to session 13, new paper number 13.11

P5.10

Use of Lower Atmospheric Profilers and Automated Surface Measurements to Investigate Mesoscale Structure and Predictability

E. G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Dugway, UT

Poster PDF (129.1 kB)

P5.11

Topographic distortion of a cold front over the Snake River Plain and Central Idaho Mountains

W. James Steenburgh, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and T. R. Blazek

Poster PDF (166.8 kB)

P5.12

Kinematics of a mesoscale convective system and its mesoscale convective vortex

Jason C. Knievel, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

Poster PDF (207.5 kB)

P5.13

The value of realtime upper tropospheric inertial stability measurements on tropical convection forecasts

John R. Mecikalski, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

P5.14

The use of GPS integrated precipitable water measurements to supplement WSR-88D parameters in determining the potential for flash flood producing rainfall

Stephen J. Keighton, NOAA/NWS, Blacksburg, VA; and M. Gillen, G. V. Loganathan, S. Gorugantula, and T. Eisenberger

Poster PDF (68.9 kB)

P5.15

Lee Waves over Complex Topography during MAP

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. B. Smith and G. S. Poulos

Poster PDF (3.1 MB)

P5.16

A case study of a severe Midwestern pulse thunderstorm event

Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo and R. W. Przybylinski

P5.17

Paper has been moved to session 13, new paper number 13.7A

P5.18

Comparison of 9-km wind forecasts versus 27-km wind forecasts during the Northern Gulf of Mexico Littoral Initiative

Gueorgui V. Mostovoi, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and P. J. Fitzpatrick and Y. Li

Poster PDF (17.8 kB)

P5.19

Analysis of warm-season morning convection across the southern Great Plains

John A. Haynes, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. E. Hane, D. L. Andra, E. Berry, F. H. Carr, and R. M. Rabin

Poster PDF (49.6 kB)

P5.20

AN OBSERVATIONAL STUDY ON ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR FORMATION OF CLOSED CONVECTION CELLS

Yuichi Miura, Science University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

P5.21

Paper has been moved to session 14, new paper number 14.5

P5.22

Mesoscale processes and impact of FASTEX cyclones through momentum, heat, and water budgets (IOPs 11, 12, 16, 17)

A. Protat, CETP, Velizy, France; and D. Bouniol and Y. Lemaître

Poster PDF (264.3 kB)

P5.23

Observations of the Great Plains Dryline Utilizing Mobile Mesonet Data

Albert E. Pietrycha, NOAA/NSSL, Boulder, CO and Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and E. N. Rasmussen

http://mrd3.nssl.ucar.edu/~pietrych/www/vortex/990610/990610.html

Poster PDF (346.7 kB)

P5.24

Observations of the DCVZ Using Mobile Mesonets Data

Albert E. Pietrycha, NOAA/NSSL, Boulder, CO and Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and E. N. Rasmussen

http://mrd3.nssl.ucar.edu/~pietrych/www/vortex/dcvz/980716dcvz.html

Poster PDF (264.3 kB)

P5.25

Numerical simulations of heavy rainfall during the Mesoscale Alpine Program (MAP)

James A. Thurman, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. -. L. Lin and J. J. Charney

Poster PDF (408.4 kB)

Poster Session 4

Poster Session - Instruments and Data Collection—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: John McGinley, NOAA/ERL/FSL

Papers:

P4.1

Developments in the correction of radiosonde relative humidity biases at The Met Office

Martin C. Sharpe, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and B. Macpherson

Poster PDF (72.6 kB)

P4.2

Assimilating satellite wind, moisture, and temperature for numerical forecast improvements during the PACific landfalling JETs (PACJET) experiment

John R. Mecikalski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, M. C. Morgan, D. Kleist, D. Stettner, K. Goodstein, H. M. Kim, and B. Baum

Poster PDF (997.4 kB)

P4.3

Assimilation of GOES rapid-Scan winds into an experimental ETA model during Hurricane Keith

Howard I. Berger, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Poster PDF (72.4 kB)

P4.4

GWINDEX—GOES rapid-scan WINDs EXperiment: Applications for west coast forecasting

Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. Stettner

Poster PDF (309.7 kB)

P4.5

Assimilation of rapid-scan satellite cloud motion vectors into the RUC model in support of the PACJET experiment

Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and C. S. Velden

Poster PDF (407.3 kB)

P4.6

Impact of GMS-5 and GOES-9 Satellite-Derived Winds on the Prediction of a NORPEX Extratropical Cyclone

Qingnong Xiao, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou, M. Pondeca, M. A. Shapiro, and C. S. Velden

Poster PDF (1005.3 kB)

P4.7

Use/impact of NESDIS GOES wind data within an operational mesoscale FDDA system

Jennifer M. Cram, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Daniels, W. Bresky, Y. Liu, S. Low-Nam, and R. S. Sheu

http://atec-server.rap.ucar.edu/model/fddad22.html

Poster PDF (155.2 kB)

P4.8

Utilization of satellite scatterometer wind measurements and NEXRAD precipitation data to improve regional ocean forecasts

David E. Weissman, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY; and J. S. Tongue, M. A. Bourassa, and L. A. Bliven

Poster PDF (772.6 kB)

P4.9

Assimilation of QuikScat winds in MM5 model for track and intensity prediction of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones

P4.10

Assimilation of radar data for 1–4 hour snowband forecasting using a mesoscale model

Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook, J. Sun, and R. Rasmussen

P4.11

Initialization of a hurricane vortex with single-Doppler radar data

Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald and W. C. Lee

P4.12

A modeling study of Hurricane Danny (1997) using an artificial initial vortex

Sytske K. Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL

P4.13

Assimilation of Cloud- and Land-Affected TOVS/ATOVS Level 1B Radiances in DAO's Next Generation Finite-volume Data Assimilation System

Joanna Joiner, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva

P4.14

A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH OF THE CLOUD COVER BY THERMIC INFRARED MEASUREMENTS

Didier Gillotay, Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium; and T. Besnard and F. Zanghi

Poster PDF (157.3 kB)

P4.15

Lightning Analysis And Forecasting

Jean Souviron, AES, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and D. Jacob, V. Turcotte, R. Frenette, and M. Nadeau

Poster PDF (2.1 MB)

P4.16

Lightning Watch and Warning Support to Spacelift Operations

Johnny W. Weems, Air Force Weather Agency, Patrick AFB, FL; and C. S. Pinder, W. P. Roeder, and B. F. Boyd

Poster PDF (133.8 kB)

P4.17

Considerations in providing a natural dataset for lidar OSSE studies

Adrian Marroquin, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Smart and L. S. Wharton

P4.18

Impact of Lidar Wind Sounding on Mesoscale Forecast

Shih-Hung Chou, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and T. L. Miller

P4.19

Comparison of SSM/I Derived Sea surface Winds with NWP Model Analysis

R. M. Khaladkar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; and P. N. Mahajan and P. K. Pal

4

Instruments and Data Collection

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: William Burnett, CNMOC

Papers:

4:00 PM

4.5

Impact of lost Russian RAOBs on numerical weather prediction skill

M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Kistler, Y. Zhu, and J. Giraytys

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/projects/naos/naos.html

Poster PDF (49.8 kB)

4:20 PM

4.6

Toward improved use of GOES satellite derived winds at the NCEP environmental modelling center (EMC)

Xiujuan Su, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Derber, S. J. Lord, C. S. Velden, and J. Daniels

Poster PDF (27.9 kB)

4:40 PM

4.7

Physical and Computational Considerations for the Use of GPS Occultation Observations in NWP

X. Zou, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. Liu, H. Shao, F. C. Vandenberghe, R. A. Anthes, and B. Wang

Poster PDF (143.5 kB)

10

Convection Systems: Continued

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Papers:

4:00 PM

10.4

The role of low-level vertical wind shear in promoting strong, long-lived squall lines

Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno

4:15 PM

10.5

Effects of ambient shear on lifting produced by cold pools

Richard Rotunno, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. L. Weisman

4:30 PM

10.6

Observations and numerical simulations of a long-lived convectively generated mesoscale vortex

Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis

4:59 PM

10.7

Paper has been moved to session 3, new paper number 3.6

5:00 PM

10.8

Favored regions of convective initiation in the Rocky Mountains

Donna F. Tucker, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and N. A. Crook

Poster PDF (405.6 kB)

5:15 PM

10.9

Mesoscale convective systems over the United States during 1999–2000

Christopher J. Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. W. Arritt and L. Strehlow

Poster PDF (108.9 kB)

1

Conference Cruise and Dinner

Dinner Cruise

Thur 2 Aug

THUR 2 AUG

11

Hurricane Dynamics and modeling

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: Christipher A. Davis, NCAR

Papers:

8:00 AM

11.2

Warm-core intensification through horizontal eddy heat transports into the eye

Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. T. Montgomery, J. Fulton, and D. S. Nolan

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/912/braun/index.htm

Poster PDF (842.3 kB)

8:15 AM

11.3

Toward a Fully Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Hurricane Prediction Model

Shuyi S. Chen, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and W. Zhao, J. E. Tenerelli, and M. Donelan

11.4

Numerical Simulation of the Genesis of Hurricane Danny

8:30 AM

11.1A

A Numerical Study of the Impact of Vertical Shear on the Distribution of Rainfall in Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

Robert Rogers, RSMAS/Cooperative Inst. for Marine and Atmospheric Studies/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, J. E. Tenerelli, and H. E. Willoughby

8:45 AM

11.4A

The impact of TRMM data on mesoscale numerical simulations of Super Typhoon Paka (formerly paper 4.1)

Zhao-Xia Pu, University of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao, Y. Jia, J. Simpson, S. A. Braun, J. Halverson, A. Hou, and W. Olson

9:00 AM

11.1B

Numerical simulations of the Genesis of Hurricane Diana (1984)

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. G. Powers and L. F. Bosart

5

Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Kim Curry, Naval Pacific METOC Center

Papers:

8:00 AM

5.1

The THOR project-Reducing the impact of thunderstorms on aviation and the general public through a multi-agency effort

Stephan B. Smith, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Pace, S. J. Goodman, D. W. Burgess, D. Smarsh, R. D. Roberts, and M. M. Wolfson

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

8:20 AM

5.2

Operational surface mesoanalysis

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. M. Saleeby

8:40 AM

5.3

Observational data and MOS: the challenges in creating high-quality guidance

Rebecca L. Allen, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD

9:00 AM

5.4

A comparison of current and proposed surface analysis techniques

Eric G. Hoffman, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and F. Sanders

9:20 AM

5.5

A lake effect snowfall in Western Nevada—Part I: Synoptic setting and observations

Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/NWS, Reno, NV; and R. Collins, T. Cylke, M. Deutschendorf, and D. Mercer

9:40 AM

5.6

A lake effect snowfall in western Nevada—part II: radar characteristics and quantitative precipitation estimates

Arlen W. Huggins, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. E. Kingsmill and M. M. Cairns

12

Invited Presentation

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: Cliff F. Mass, Univ. of Washington

Papers:

9:15 AM

12.1

The future of mesoscale observation systems and data assimilation

Frederick H. Carr, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

1

Coffee Break

5

Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development: Continued

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

10:30 AM

5.7

A preliminary investigation of the genesis of Atlantic tropical storms in the 2000 Hurricane season using the Operational Global data

V. Mohan Karyampudi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Davison

10:50 AM

5.8

Evolution of Hurricane Michael (2000) from cold- to warm- to cold-core over a 5-day period: Observations and modeling

Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. F. Bosart, J. Molinari, C. S. Velden, and J. L. Evans

11:10 AM

5.9

Overview of 2 difficult forecast scenarios for the mid atlantic U.S. during the 2000–2001 winter season—lessons from data analysis

Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

11:30 AM

5.10

Detection and Evaluation of the Effects of Split Fronts on the Evolution of Appalachian Cold Air Damming

Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Koch and G. M. Lackmann

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

13

Mesoscale Dynamics

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: F. Martin Ralph, NOAA/ERL/ETL

Papers:

10:30 AM

13.1

The role of latent heat release in the formation of a warm occluded thermal structure in an intense continental cyclone

Derek J. Posselt, Univ.of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

10:45 AM

13.2

Dynamical overview of the two European storms of december 1999 using generalized potential vorticity inversion

P. Arbogast, Meteo-France and CNRM, Toulouse, France; and G. Hello and A. Joly

Poster PDF (177.4 kB)

11:00 AM

13.3

Mesoscale dynamics and life cycle of the 24-26 January 2000 East-Coast snowstorm

Melvyn A. Shapiro, NCAR and NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang

11:15 AM

13.4

Aggregate effects of the Great Lakes on the intensity and propagation of fronts during the warm season

Peter J. Sousounis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

11:30 AM

13.5

Incorporating TOMS Ozone Data into the Prediction of a Winter Snow Storm

Kun-Il Jang, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou, Q. Zhao, A. Kruger, and M. A. Shapiro

Poster PDF (3.7 MB)

11:45 AM

13.6

The role of evaporative Processes in gravity wave genesis

Brian F. Jewett, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy and R. M. Rauber

Poster PDF (383.3 kB)

12:00 PM

13.7

Paper has been moved to Poster session 6, new paper number 6.22

12:01 PM

13.8

Simulations of Winter Mesoscale Circulations Associated with an Axisymmetric Isolated Heat and Moisture Sources

Neil F. Laird, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and D. A. R. Kristovich and J. E. Walsh

Poster PDF (27.9 kB)

12:16 PM

13.9

The mesoscale evolution of the early cyclogenesis of the March 1993 Storm of the Century

Karl D. Pfeiffer, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. L. Kaplan, Y. L. Lin, A. J. Riordan, G. M. Lackmann, K. T. Waight III, and D. B. Ensley

Poster PDF (4.6 MB)

12:31 PM

13.10

Cloud-resolving numerical simulation of a polar low over Japan Sea

Wataru Yanase, Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and H. Niino and K. Saito

Poster PDF (660.0 kB)

12:46 PM

13.11

Regimes for a Conditionally Unstable Flow over an Idealised Three-Dimensional Mesoscale Mountain (formerly paper P5.9)

Shu-hua Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. L. Lin

Poster PDF (335.8 kB)

1:31 PM

13.7A

Factors Influencing Atmospheric Internal Bore Formation Resultiing from Colliding Boundaries (formerly paper P5.17)

David E. Kingsmill, DRI, Reno, NV

1:01 PM

13.6a

Lunch Break (12:00-1:00 p.m.)

1:45 PM

13.11a

Discussion

2:00 PM

13.6b

Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO (12:30-1:00 p.m.)

2:30 PM

13.11b

Coffee Break

1

Lunch Break

1

Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO

6

Ensembles (Please note that the paper numbering for this session has changed since it was originally published)

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Thomas Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC

Papers:

1:00 PM

6.1

An overview of ensemble forecasting and data assimilation

Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (142.9 kB)

1:20 PM

6.2

Data Assimilation with an Unstable Shallow Water System Using A Cycling Representer Algorithm

Liang Xu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Daley

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

1:39 PM

6.3

Paper 6.3 has been moved to Poster Session P2, Number P2.18

1:40 PM

6.4

Ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation

Milija Zupanski, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD

2:00 PM

6.5

Forecast sensitivity of extratropical transition intensification to downstream synoptic-scale perturbations

John R. Gyakum, McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ, Canada; and R. J. McTaggart-Cowan

Poster PDF (86.5 kB)

1

Poster Session Overview

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Poster Session 5

Poster Session - Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Jeff Tongue, NOAA/NWSFO

Papers:

P5.1

Mid-Level Dry Intrusions as a Factor in Tornadogenesis Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Central and Western Gulf Area

Lon Curtis, KWTX-TV, Waco, TX

P5.2

Short-Term Forecasting of Cloud Ceiling Categories at Kennedy Space Center for the Space Shuttle Program

Winifred C. Lambert, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied Meteorology Unit/ENSCO, Inc, Cocoa Beach, FL

Poster PDF (45.6 kB)

P5.3

Utilizing the Warning Decision Support System for Detecting Tornadoes Associated with Tropical Storm Helene

Thomas J. Turnage, NOAA/NWS, Tallahassee, FL

P5.4

High resolution precipitation climatologies from radar data

Henry E. Fuelberg, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and G. S. Quina, B. A. Mroczka, R. J. Lanier, J. Bradberry, and J. P. Breidenbach

P5.5

A 20-Year Synoptic Climatology of the South Plains Dewpoint / Dryline

Mark R. Conder, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and A. L. Doggett and R. E. Peterson

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/conder/publications/presentations.htm

Poster PDF (590.5 kB)

P5.6

A 30-year climatology of convective snow events for the contiguous United States

Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and C. E. Halcomb and R. L. Ebert

P5.7

A Comprehensive Climatology of Appalachian Cold Air Damming

Christopher M. Bailey, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann, G. Hartfield, and K. Keeter

Poster PDF (126.0 kB)

P5.8

An objective climatology of Carolina coastal fronts

Wyat K. Appel, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. J. Riordan

Poster PDF (49.3 kB)

P5.9

A River and Flash Flood Climatology of Southern New England: Results from 1994–2000

David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and J. DelliCarpini

P5.10

A team-based forecast process using medium range model consistency loops

Eric F. Grelson, U.S. Air Force, Barksdale AFB, LA; and C. J. Lee

Poster PDF (133.2 kB)

P5.11

Development of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensification Index

Gabriel S. Rothman, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH

P5.12

A case study of a windstorm in the Brazilian Amazon

Mamedes L. Melo, Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Brasilia, Brazil; and F. Lacerda, L. R. Bernardet, and R. B. da Silveira

http://www.inmet.gov.br

Poster PDF (182.7 kB)

P5.13

A method concept of weather forecasting along an aircraft route based on numerical model data

Slawomir A. Pietrek, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and K. Kroszczynski

P5.14

Instability and forcing in 4 cases of convective snow from the 1999–2000 winter season

Christopher E. Halcomb, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

P5.15

Remote Weather Assessment Using Fused Data and Knowledge Discovery from Databases

Richard L. Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Hadjimichael, A. P. Kuciauskas, W. T. Thompson, and K. L. Richardson

P5.16

Satellite Applications for Tropical Wave/Tropical Cyclone Tracking

Jason P. Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. S. Velden and J. R. Rhome

P5.17

Synoptic and mesoscale analysis of the 9 August 2000 Appalachian-crossing derechos (formerly poster P3.6)

Stephen J. Keighton, NOAA/NWS, Blacksburg, VA; and S. Nogueira and N. Belk

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/rnk/research.html

Poster PDF (462.3 kB)

Poster Session 6

Mesoscale Circulations—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Papers:

P6.1

Mixing Processes and the Interaction among 3 Atmospheric Regimes in the Salt Lake City Basin

Gregory S. Poulos, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder, CO; and R. Hertenstein

http://www.colorado-research.com/~gsp/VTMX

Poster PDF (308.0 kB)

P6.2

The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System: development and case examination

Jordan G. Powers, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. H. Kuo, J. F. Bresch, D. H. Bromwich, J. J. Cassano, and A. Cayette

P6.3

The influence of electrification on microphysical and dynamical processes inside thunderstorms

Anping Sun, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and H. Y. Chun

Poster PDF (101.6 kB)

P6.4

Simulated gravity waves produced by MCS-like heating profiles: MCS geometry and its effects on the environment

Matthew D. Parker, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (783.3 kB)

P6.5

Parallel implementation of compact numerical schemes

Tsukasa Fujita, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser

Poster PDF (806.6 kB)

P6.6

The Role of Upper Tropospheric Inertial Stability in Hurricane Intensification

Eric D. Rappin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan

Poster PDF (15.1 kB)

P6.7

The mesoscale environment and lightning distribution during the 1998 Florida Wildfires

Arlene G. Laing, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL; and C. H. Paxton, S. L. Goodrick, D. W. Sharp, and P. F. Blottman

Poster PDF (252.3 kB)

P6.8

Numerical Simulations of an Orographic Rainfall Event Associated with the Passage of a Tropical Storm over a Mesoscale Mountain

Sen Chiao, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. L. Lin

Poster PDF (541.7 kB)

P6.9

Diagnosis of a rapid surface cyclolysis event in the Bering Sea

P6.10

A numerical study on characteristics of internal gravity waves in the stratosphere induced by mesoscale convective system

In-Sun Song, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and H. Y. Chun

Poster PDF (975.6 kB)

P6.11

A mixed layer model of the diurnal dryline

Patrick A. Jones, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and P. R. Bannon

P6.12

The role of mesoscale dry intrusion in the Washington, D.C. snowstorm of March 9, 1999

Richard P. James, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. H. E. Clark and R. H. Grumm

P6.13

Improvement of horizontal pressure gradient computation in a terrain following coordinate

Sang-Hun Park, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and T. Y. Lee, H. Y. Chun, and S. Y. Hong

http://

P6.14

Evaluation of the MM5 and Workstation ETA Models near Tallahassee, Florida

Todd P. Lericos, NOAA/NWS, Tallahassee, FL; and T. J. Turnage, A. I. Watson, H. E. Fuelberg, and S. L. Goodrick

P6.15

Vortex-Lines and Airflow Structure near a Tornado-like Vortex in a Simulated Mini-Supercell

Akira Noda, Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and H. Niino

Poster PDF (5.9 MB)

P6.16

Paper has been moved to session 14, new paper number 14.3A

P6.17

Sensitivity to Lower-Tropospheric Potential Vorticity Maxima to Model Physics

C. Michael Trexler, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Poster PDF (209.4 kB)

P6.18

FINE-SCALE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF A HEAVY SNOWBAND

Robert M. Rauber, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy, B. F. Jewett, and M. Han

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

P6.19

Radar characteristics of severe wind-producing convective systems over the Northern High Plains

Brian A. Klimowski, NOAA/NWSFO, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt

P6.20

Numerical Study of a mesoscale convection system over the Taiwan Strait

Qinghong Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. H. Lau, Y. H. Kuo, and S. J. Chen

P6.21

Sensitivity of orographic precipitation to changing ambient conditions: An idealized modeling perspective

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY

P6.22

Mesoscale processes involved in FASTEX secondary cyclones (Formerly paper 13.7)

Dominique Bouniol, CNRS, Vélizy, France; and Y. Lemaître and A. Protat

Poster PDF (713.0 kB)

P6.23

Mesoscale Environments which Characterize Severe Mid-upper Tropospheric Turbulence (formerly paper 14.4)

Michael L. Kaplan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. -. L. Lin, J. J. Charney, K. T. Waight III, A. W. Huffman, J. D. Cetola, and K. M. Lux

Poster PDF (2.1 MB)

Poster Session 6

Poster Session - Ensembles—with Coffee Break

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: John Gyakum, McGill Univ.

Papers:

P6.1

Paper P6.1 has been moved to the Mesoscale Processes Program, Session 9, Paper number 9.6a

P6.2

Distance-dependent filtering of background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalman filter

Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and C. Snyder

Poster PDF (174.6 kB)

P6.3

Kalman filter error statistics and the global meteorological observing network

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop

P6.4

A simplified model for predicting forecast error variances

Yong Li, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. E. Cohn, L. P. Riishojgaard, J. Guo, and Z. Toth

P6.5

A bayesian technique for estimating covariance parameters in large scale statistical objective analysis

David F. Parrish, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser

Poster PDF (764.9 kB)

P6.6

The exact error covariances of an autonomous optimal data assimilation cycle: Implications for ensembles and the global observing network

Craig H. Bishop, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA

P6.7

Wavelet Approximation in the Computation of Error Covariance Evolution

Andrew V. Tangborn, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD

P6.8

A Real-Time Ensemble for the Prediction of Hurricane Tracks in the Atlantic Basin

Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar and C. H. Bishop

Poster PDF (46.6 kB)

P6.9

Ensemble methods applied to hurricane track forecasting

Brian F. Jewett, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy and H. Liu

P6.10

Probabilistic forecasts and optimal perturbation ensembles

P6.11

Estimation of uncertainties in atmospheric data assimilation using singular vectors

Hyun Mee Kim, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and R. E. Morss

Poster PDF (189.1 kB)

P6.12

Unified treatment of measurement bias and correlation in variational analysis with consideration of the preconditioning problem

R. James Purser, General Sciences Corp., Beltsville, MD; and J. C. Derber

Poster PDF (906.1 kB)

P6.13

A Comparison of Different Ensemble Generation Techniques

P6.14

Can we predict the reduction in forecast error variance produced by targeted observations?

Sharanya J. Majumdar, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop, I. Szunyogh, and Z. Toth

Poster PDF (361.3 kB)

P6.15

Ensemble forecasts using perturbed physics in a multidimensional parameter space

Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. J. Anderson and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Poster PDF (45.2 kB)

P6.16

Using parallel data assimilation cycles to estimate analysis uncertainity

P6.17

Dynamic Ensemble MOS

P6.18

MM5 adjoint development using TAMC: Experiences with an automatic code generator

Thomas Nehrkorn, AER, Inc., Lexington, MA; and G. D. Modica, M. Cerniglia, F. H. Ruggiero, J. G. Michalakes, and X. Zou

Poster PDF (106.0 kB)

P6.19

The role of the momentum divergence equation ellipticity in the numerical model solutions

Ireneusz A. Winnicki, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and K. Kroszczynski

Poster PDF (36.9 kB)

14

Mesoscale Circulations

Sponsor: Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Organizer: Mark T. Stoelinga, Univ. of Washington

Papers:

4:00 PM

14.1

Use of a Mesoscale Model to Forecast Tornadic Storms Associated with a Cold Front Aloft

Stan Rose, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. T. Stoelinga, J. D. Locatelli, and P. V. Hobbs

4:15 PM

14.2

The rapid growth and decay of a low-latitude extratropical cyclone in the central Pacific Ocean

Jonathan E. Martin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin

Poster PDF (402.7 kB)

14.3

Numerical simulation of a dryline-outflow boundary intersection

4:30 PM

14.4

Paper has been moved to Poster Session 6, new paper number P6.23

4:31 PM

14.5

Comparison of in-situ and satellite observations of mesoscale moisture structure in an Eastern-Pacific polar frontal wave (formerly paper P5.21)

F. Martin Ralph, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Neiman, C. S. Velden, and W. A. Nuss

4:46 PM

14.3A

Some dyanmical aspects of the Mistral (formerly paper P6.16)

Qingfang Jiang, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and R. B. Smith and J. D. Doyle

5:00 PM

14.5a

Discussion

6

Ensembles

Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

4:00 PM

6.6

Numerical Prediction of Typhoon Tracks and Intensity using a Multimodel Superensemble

T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti, M. Fiorino, and M. Nagata

Poster PDF (63.7 kB)

4:20 PM

6.7

Implementation of an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter in a Global NWP Model

Jeffrey L. Anderson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. Zhang

4:40 PM

6.8

Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations

Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill

Poster PDF (153.0 kB)

6.9

Statistics of Background Error Derived from an Ensemble of Analyses

5:20 PM

6.10

Applications of spatially recursive digital filters to the synthesis of inhomogeneous and anisotropic covariance operators in a statistical objective analysis

R. James Purser, General Sciences Corp., Beltsville, MD; and W. S. Wu and D. F. Parrish

Poster PDF (872.2 kB)

Panel Discussion 3

Joint Panel and Group Discussion: How can we better estimate and communicate uncertainty in mesoscale forecasts?

Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )

Moderator: John Gyakum, McGill Univ.

Panelists: M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC; David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL; Richard Grumm, NOAA/NWS

Conference Ends

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