Thursday, 2 August 2001: 11:00 AM
Mesoscale dynamics and life cycle of the 24-26 January 2000 East-Coast snowstorm
The major East Coast cyclone development and associated heavy snow
event
of 24-26 January 2000 was characterized by very low predictive skill
in
North American and European operational forecast models. Significant
errors in storm position and intensity, as well as errors in the
details
of mesoscale frontal structure and precipitation distribution occurred
in
the 1 to 5-day forecast range. The storm produced 24-h snow amounts of
1-2
ft over large areas of the mid-Atlantic coastal zone and eastern slope
of
the Appalachian Mountains. Downstream development and associated
Rossby
wave dispersion initiated by cyclogenesis on 21 January east of Japan
is
identified as a principal component leading to the eastern U.S storm
development on 24 January. Error in the forecasts of synoptic and
mesoscale
storm structure in this case was modulated by the interaction of these large-scale flows and downscale energy dispersion. Numerical
simulations
with the NCAR/Penn State mesoscale prediction model show that the 24 h
of
storm development was associated with the contraction of a
tropopause-based
PV anomaly from a synoptic-scale wave down to a mesoscale extruded
filament.
Vertical penetration of the upper PV feature from 300 down to 700 mb
is shown
to be a first-order component in the rapid intensification of the
cyclone.
Also, there is strong evidence suggesting from the satelite and radar
images
that this event might be categorize as a "instant occlusion" event in
which
the upper PV associated convection instantly merged with the
preexisting
surface baroclinic front and gain rapid cyclogensis. This rarely
happens in
previous studies and is very different from the frontal wave
cyclogenesis model.
Supplementary URL: