Wednesday, 1 August 2001
Implementation of a Real-Time Short Range Ensemble Forecasting System at NCEP: An Update
A regional-model based Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system is scheduled for implementation on a real-time basis in May 2001. The system consists of 10 members, five each generated with the Eta and Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with perturbations to initial conditions provided by "regional breeding". The ensemble system will run twice daily from 09Z and 21Z through 63 hours and be available about the same time as the 12Z and 00Z operational Eta runs. The SREF system will be described futher in this presentation with emphasis on relevance to operational applications and system performance, including comparison of the information content of this relatively lower-resolution ensemble with the higher-resolution deterministic runs of the Eta. Finally, plans for upgrading the SREF system will be outlined.
Supplementary URL: http://lnx48.wwb.noaa.gov/SREF/SREF.html