Session: Mesoscale Predictability and Ensembles—with Coffee Break (18th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, and Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes)

P4.1

Evaluation of RAMS surface wind forecasts for the Chesapeake Bay during the Coastal Marine Demonstration Project

Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Aikman III and J. G. W. Kelley

Poster PDF (90.9 kB)

P4.2

Gauging mesoscale predictability of an unusual high latitude snow event via a multi-model intercomparison

Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and R. Thoman

Poster PDF (270.0 kB)

P4.3

The behavior of low-level vorticity and circulation surges of a modeled supercell

Brian J. Gaudet, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

Poster PDF (91.0 kB)

P4.4

Eta model forecasts for the millennium snowstorm of 30-31 December 2000

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs and SAIC/GSC, Beltsville, MD; and K. F. Brill

P4.5

Impact of soil moisture initialization on a simulated flash flood

C. Travis Ashby, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

Poster PDF (425.1 kB)

P4.6

Wind energy forecasts and ensemble uncertainty from the RUC

Kevin J. Brundage, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and M. N. Schwartz

Poster PDF (45.4 kB)

P4.7

Balanced initialization procedures and mesoscale predictability

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang

P4.8

Quantifying the impact of observations using ensembles

P4.9

Implementation of a Real-Time Short Range Ensemble Forecasting System at NCEP: An Update

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Tracton

http://lnx48.wwb.noaa.gov/SREF/SREF.html

Poster PDF (56.0 kB)

P4.10

Evaluation of high resolution MM5 and Eta forecasts over the Northeast U.S

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. S. Tongue and J. B. Olson

Poster PDF (962.6 kB)

P4.11

Paper has been moved to session 8, new paper number 8.4

P4.12

Quantifying the predictability and uncertainty of models to improve aviation forecasts

Steven R. Silberberg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Kansas City, MO

P4.13

Dynamic selection from among an ensemble of lateral boundary conditions for limited-area models

Paul A. Nutter, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (80.5 kB)

P4.14

Predictability of convection at 24-48h forecast range using a very-high resolution (6 km) NWP model

Michael A. Fowle, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

P4.15

Numerical simulation of a right-moving storm over France

Katia Chancibault, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and V. Ducrocq and J. P. Lafore

Poster PDF (2.8 MB)

P4.16

Variability in warm-season MCS rainfall predictability

Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

P4.17

Inertial instability: Climatology and possible relationship to severe weather predictability

Russ S. Schumacher, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and D. M. Schultz

P4.18

The use of a 10km ensemble to improve warm season MCS rainfall prediction

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov

P4.19

24-48h predictability of lake-enhanced snowbands in the 2-3 January 1999 Midwest blizzard

James E. Sieveking, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

P4.20

An Evaluation of Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) During the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX)

P4.21

An examination of the operational predictability of mesoscale terrain-induced features in eastern Colorado from several models

Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L. Shaw

http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/szoke/mesoconf/cases_homepage.html

Poster PDF (134.1 kB)

Poster Session 4: Mesoscale Predictability and Ensembles—with Coffee Break