18th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, and Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Poster Session 4: Mesoscale Predictability and Ensemblesówith Coffee Break

Wednesday, 1 August 2001: 2:30 PM-4:00 PM
Papers:
 
Evaluation of RAMS surface wind forecasts for the Chesapeake Bay during the Coastal Marine Demonstration Project
Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Aikman III and J. G. W. Kelley

Poster PDF (90.9 kB)
 
 
The behavior of low-level vorticity and circulation surges of a modeled supercell
Brian J. Gaudet, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

Poster PDF (91.0 kB)
 
Eta model forecasts for the millennium snowstorm of 30-31 December 2000
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs and SAIC/GSC, Beltsville, MD; and K. F. Brill

 
Impact of soil moisture initialization on a simulated flash flood
C. Travis Ashby, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

Poster PDF (425.1 kB)
 
Wind energy forecasts and ensemble uncertainty from the RUC
Kevin J. Brundage, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and M. N. Schwartz

Poster PDF (45.4 kB)
 
Balanced initialization procedures and mesoscale predictability
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang

 
P4.8
Quantifying the impact of observations using ensembles

 
Implementation of a Real-Time Short Range Ensemble Forecasting System at NCEP: An Update
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Tracton

http://lnx48.wwb.noaa.gov/SREF/SREF.html

Poster PDF (56.0 kB)
 
Evaluation of high resolution MM5 and Eta forecasts over the Northeast U.S
Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. S. Tongue and J. B. Olson

Poster PDF (962.6 kB)
 
Predictability of convection at 24-48h forecast range using a very-high resolution (6 km) NWP model
Michael A. Fowle, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

 
Numerical simulation of a right-moving storm over France
Katia Chancibault, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and V. Ducrocq and J. P. Lafore

Poster PDF (2.8 MB)
 
Variability in warm-season MCS rainfall predictability
Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

 
Inertial instability: Climatology and possible relationship to severe weather predictability
Russ S. Schumacher, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and D. M. Schultz

 
The use of a 10km ensemble to improve warm season MCS rainfall prediction
William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov

 
24-48h predictability of lake-enhanced snowbands in the 2-3 January 1999 Midwest blizzard
James E. Sieveking, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

 
P4.20
An Evaluation of Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) During the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX)

 
An examination of the operational predictability of mesoscale terrain-induced features in eastern Colorado from several models
Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L. Shaw

http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/szoke/mesoconf/cases_homepage.html

Poster PDF (134.1 kB)