18th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, and Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Wednesday, 1 August 2001
Wind energy forecasts and ensemble uncertainty from the RUC
Kevin J. Brundage, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and M. N. Schwartz
Poster PDF (45.4 kB)
The RUC is a 4-d data assimilation and forecast model developed at NOAA's Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL). An experimental version of the RUC run at FSL is being used to provide hourly analyses and forecasts of low level winds and available wind energy for several National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) tall-tower sites. The variance of the suite of forecasts with differing durations and common valid times is being evaluated as a way to estimate forecast uncertainty.

Preliminary studies, using the 40km/40 level RUC model, show a positive correlation between the ensemble uncertainty and the forecast errors at NREL tower locations. Further studies are being conducted using the 20km RUC system currently being developed at FSL. Information will be presented both on the accuracy of wind power potential forecasts, as well as results from the ensemble uncertainty measurements.

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