18th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, and Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Tuesday, 31 July 2001: 4:00 PM
Verification and Evaluation of NOGAPS and COAMPS Analyses and Forecasts for the 2426 January 2000 East Coast Cyclone
Carlyle H. Wash, NPS, Monterey, CA; and G. Schmeiser and P. M. Pauley
Poster PDF (12.5 kB)
The strong cyclogenesis event of 24-25 January 2000 off the US Southeast Coast was poorly forecast by US Navy and other NWP models. In particular, the track of the developing system was predicted to be more easterly and seaward than observed, and the location and intensity of the associated heavy snow band were poorly resolved. The paper will verify and evaluate the performance of the operational Fleet Numerical METOC Center analyses and forecasts for this event, from the global NOGAPS and regional COAMPS systems. In addition, reanalysis of this event by the Navy's new variation analysis system, the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Analysis System (NAVDAS), will be investigated. Of particular interest is the analysis and prediction in the global system of two strong jet streaks associated with this case, the coastal front along the Carolina coast, and the amplification of the downstream ridge over the New England coast. The role of these features in the cyclogenesis and subsequent storm track along the US East coast are the focus of the study.

Supplementary URL: http://www.met.nps.navy.mil/~wash/WAF/paper.doc