18th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, and Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

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Sunday, 29 July 2001

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Sunday, 29 July 2001


SUN 29 JULY

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 29 July 2001


Conference Registration

7:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 29 July 2001


1
Opening Reception with Conference Overview (Cash Bar)

Monday, 30 July 2001

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Monday, 30 July 2001


MON 30 JULY

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 30 July 2001


1
Conference Registration Continues through Thursday, 2 August

9:00 AM-9:10 AM: Monday, 30 July 2001


Welcoming Remarks and Joint Session Overview
Organizers: Cliff F. Mass, Univ. of Washington; William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology & Oceanography Command

9:10 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 30 July 2001


Joint Session 1
Mesoscale Models
Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )
Organizers: Cliff F. Mass, Univ. of Washington; William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command

Papers:
  9:10 AM
J1.1
Operational overview of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)
Ed Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. Wegiel, S. Applequist, and S. Hausman

  9:30 AM
J1.2
The next version of the Canadian operational GEM regional mesoscale model
Jocelyn Mailhot, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and S. Bélair, A. Tremblay, A. Méthot, B. Bilodeau, L. -. P. Crevier, and A. Glazer

  9:50 AM
J1.3
Recent and Planned Changes to the NCEP Eta Analysis and Forecast System
Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, G. J. DiMego, Y. Lin, K. E. Mitchell, D. Parrish, M. B. Ek, and B. Ferrier

  10:10 AM
J1.4
Recent developments of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)
Teddy R. Holt, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt, S. Chen, J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, D. Westphal, X. Hong, J. Pullen, M. Liu, J. Cummings, A. Mirin, and G. A. Sugiyama

Poster PDF (87.7 kB)

10:30 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 30 July 2001


1
Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 30 July 2001


Joint Session 1
Mesoscale Models: Continued
Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )

Papers:
  11:00 AM
J1.5
Prototypes for the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) Model
William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Klemp and J. Dudhia

Poster PDF (703.9 kB)
  11:20 AM
J1.6
Current Status of the ARPS Modeling System
Kelvin K. Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

  11:40 AM
J1.6a
Discussion

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Monday, 30 July 2001


1
Lunch Break

12:30 PM-1:00 PM: Monday, 30 July 2001


1
Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO

1:00 PM-2:20 PM: Monday, 30 July 2001


1
Numerical Data Assimilation Techniques
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: Edward Barker, NRL

Papers:
  1:00 PM
1.1
DAO's next generation physical-space/finite-volume data assimilation system: Formulation and initial evaluation
Arlindo M. da Silva, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. -. J. Lin, J. Joiner, and D. P. Dee

  1:20 PM
1.2
Recent developments of the Met Office 3D-Var system
N. Bruce Ingleby, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. P. Ballard, R. S. Bell, A. Berney, B. Candy, S. English, D. Li, A. C. Lorenc, R. J. Renshaw, and J. K. Ridley

Poster PDF (46.8 kB)
  1:40 PM
1.3
Implementation of the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System
Edward Barker, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Daley and J. Goerss

Poster PDF (107.1 kB)
  2:00 PM
1.4
The operational 4D-Var data assimilation system of Meteo-France: specific characteristics and behaviour in the special case of the 99 Xmas storms over France
Jean-François Geleyn, Météo France, Toulouse, France; and D. Banciu, M. Bellus, R. El Khatib, P. Moll, P. Saez, and J. N. Thépaut

Poster PDF (203.3 kB)

2:20 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 30 July 2001


1
Poster Session Overview

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 30 July 2001


Poster Session 1
Poster Session - Numerical Data Assimilation Techniques—with Coffee Break
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC

Papers:
 
P1.1
Regional studies and applications with a variable-resolution stretched-grid data assimilation system
Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, College Park, MD

 
P1.2
Assimilation and forecast of Hurricane Floyd with the DAO Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System
Jiun-Dar Chern, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. J. Lin and A. M. da Silva

 
P1.3
A finite-volume “shaving” method for interfacing NASA/DAO’s Physical Space Statistical Analysis System to the finite-volume GCM with a Lagrangian control-volume vertical coordinate
Shian-Jiann Lin, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva

 
P1.4
Moisture analysis in the DAO physical-space/finite-volume data assimilation system
Dick P. Dee, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva

 
P1.5
Model bias correction in the DAO physical-space/finite-volume data assimilation system
Banglin Zhang, General Sciences Corp., Beltsville and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. P. Dee, A. M. da Silva, and R. Todling

 
P1.6
A Tendency-Correction Procedure for Assimilating Rainfall Data in the Presence of Model Errors
Sara Zhang, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva and A. Y. Hou

 
P1.7
Global 3D variational analysis on physical space
Wan-Shu Wu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and R. J. Purser

Poster PDF (65.5 kB)
 
P1.8
The Met Office 3D-Var stratosphere-troposphere data assimilation system
Richard Swinbank, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and N. B. Ingleby, P. M. Boorman, and R. J. Renshaw

Poster PDF (101.3 kB)
 
P1.9
Evaluation of a bogus vortex technique using four-dimensional variational data assimilation
Zhao-Xia Pu, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Braun

 
P1.10
Impact of Diabatic Processes on 4-Dimensional Variation with the Global Spectral Model at NCEP/NOAA
S. Zhang, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and X. Zou and J. E. Ahlquist

 
P1.11
On providing a cloud-balanced initial condition for diabatic initialization
John A. McGinley, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Smart

 
P1.12
Adaptive tuning of observation error parameters in a variational data assimilation
Gerald Desroziers, Meteo France, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and B. Chapnik, S. Ivanov, and F. Rabier

Poster PDF (98.4 kB)
 
P1.13
Estimation of model and data biases using the variational data assimilation method
Chungu Lu, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and O. Talagrand


Joint Poster Session 1
Poster Session - Mesoscale Models—with Coffee Break
Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )
Organizer: Ed Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency

Papers:
 
JP1.1
On the concept of relative buoyancy
Charles A. Doswell III, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. M. Markowski

 
JP1.2
Foretell: An operational forecasting system designed for the surface transportation community
John S. Snook, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder, CO

 
JP1.3
Regional scale modeling for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games
Daryl J. Onton, CIRP, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and A. J. Siffert, L. Cheng, W. J. Steenburgh, and B. Haymore

Poster PDF (50.7 kB)
 
JP1.4
Commercial Application of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS)
Richard L. Carpenter Jr., Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Norman, OK; and G. M. Bassett

Poster PDF (433.8 kB)
 
JP1.5
Development of A coupled air-lake mesoscale model for operational marine forecasting in the Great Lakes region
Peter J. Sousounis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and G. E. Mann, D. J. Schwab, and R. B. Wagenmaker

Poster PDF (247.8 kB)
 
JP1.6
An objective evaluation and regime classification of RAMS forecast errors during the 2000 Florida warm season
Jonathan L. Case, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied Meteorology Unit/ENSCO Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco, A. V. Dianic, D. E. Harms, and P. N. Rosati

Poster PDF (93.1 kB)
 
JP1.7
Comparison Between the Performance of Eta and Sigma Modes in the NCEP Meso Eta Model
Hui-Ya Chuang, General Sciences Corp., Camp Springs, MD; and G. J. DiMego and T. Black

Poster PDF (3.7 MB)
 
JP1.8
Event-based verification of mesoscale model wind forecasts using SSM/I
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA

 
JP1.9
A quantitative comparison of MM5 cloud forecasts and GOES cloud analyses
Michael A. Kelly, Litton-TASC, Chantilly, VA; and R. J. Alliss, M. E. Loftus, and J. C. Lefever

Poster PDF (102.2 kB)
 
JP1.10
Mesoscale numerical modeling: comparative analysis of convective initiation between dissimilar mesoscale numerical models
Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and W. Shulz and A. J. Reiss

Poster PDF (103.4 kB)
 
JP1.11
High-resolution simulations of Hurricane Floyd using MM5 with vortex-following mesh refinement
Joseph E. Tenerelli, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Poster PDF (716.0 kB)
 
JP1.12
Uses Of High-resolution Mesoscale Modeling To Support Army Research and Development, Testing, and Evaluation
Scott Swerdlin, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, T. Warner, and J. F. Bowers

Poster PDF (159.0 kB)
 
JP1.13
Extratropical Transitions: Forecasted vs. Observed Evolution
Eyad H. Atallah, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (4.1 MB)
 
JP1.14
A numerical simulation of a rare lake-effect snowfall in Western Nevada
Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/NWS, Reno, NV; and J. Corey and D. R. Koracin

 
JP1.15
The construction of the numerical schemes in the Hermitian finite elements spaces
Ireneusz A. Winnicki, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland

http://

Poster PDF (31.1 kB)
 
JP1.16
Ageostrophic Forcing in a height tendency equation: two case studies.
Anthony R. Lupo, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO

Poster PDF (63.4 kB)

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 30 July 2001


1
Numerical Data Assimilation Techniques: Continued
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:
  4:00 PM
1.5
An overview of the DAO Terra GEOS Data Assimilation System
Ricardo Todling, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. L. Takacs

  4:20 PM
1.6
The Canadian 3D-Var Analysis Scheme on model vertical coordinate
Clément Chouinard, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and C. Charette, J. Hallé, P. Gauthier, J. Morneau, and R. Sarrazin

Poster PDF (283.4 kB)
  4:40 PM
1.7
Data Assimilation at the Air Force Weather Agency
Richard L. Ritz, Affiliated Computer Services, Inc., Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and M. D. McAtee and R. T. Swanson Jr.

8:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 30 July 2001


Panel Discussion 1
Joint Panel and Group Discussion: How will the role of humans in mesoscale weather prediction change during the next few decades?
Sponsors: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Moderator: William Burnett, Naval Meteorology & Oceanography Command
Panelists: Paul Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin; John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ.; Neil Stuart, NOAA/NWS; Kim Curry, NPMOC

Tuesday, 31 July 2001

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Tuesday, 31 July 2001


TUE 31 JULY

8:00 AM-9:29 AM: Tuesday, 31 July 2001


Joint Session 2
Mesoscale Data Assimilation (Parallel with Session 3)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )
Organizers: Cliff F. Mass, Univ. of Washington; William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology & Oceanography Command

Papers:
  8:00 AM
J2.1
A Three-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Scheme For a Storm Scale Model
Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. Brewster, F. H. Carr, and K. K. Droegemeier

Poster PDF (514.6 kB)
 
J2.2
Preliminary results with the nested version of NAVDAS data assimilation system for COAMPS

  8:15 AM
J2.3
The 20-km version of the RUC
Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Grell, S. S. Weygandt, T. L. Smith, T. G. Smirnova, B. E. Schwartz, D. Kim, D. Devenyi, K. J. Brundage, J. M. Brown, and G. S. Manikin

Poster PDF (235.7 kB)
  8:55 AM
J2.2A
Assimilating Single-Doppler Radar Observations into Mesoscale Models (Formerly Mesoscale paper 4.4)
Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and W. Gu and J. Gong

  8:30 AM
J2.0a
Potential Applications of 4D-Var for Mesoscale Data Assimilation (invited presentation) (Formerly Paper J2.13)
Xiaolei Zou, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

  9:10 AM
J2.3a
Discussion

  9:25 AM
J2.0b
Discussion

9:30 AM-9:30 AM: Tuesday, 31 July 2001


1
Coffee Break

10:00 AM-11:58 AM: Tuesday, 31 July 2001


Joint Session 2
Mesoscale Data Assimilation: Continued (Parallel with session 5)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )

Papers:
  10:00 AM
J2.4
Initial Verification Of The MM5 3DVAR Data Assimilation System
Dale M. Barker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Huang, Y. R. Guo, and F. C. Vandenberghe

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/3dvar/

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)
  10:15 AM
J2.5
The WRF 3D-Var analysis system
W.-S. Wu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Xue, T. W. Schlatter, R. J. Purser, M. D. McAtee, J. Gao, D. Devenyi, J. C. Derber, D. M. Barker, S. G. Benjamin, and R. Aune

Poster PDF (582.4 kB)
  10:29 AM
J2.6
Paper has been moved to Joint Poster Session JP2, Paper Number JP2.5A

  10:30 AM
J2.7
Spring 2001 changes to NCEP Eta analysis and forecast system: assimilation of observed precipitation data
Ying Lin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. E. Baldwin, K. E. Mitchell, E. Rogers, and G. J. DiMego

  10:45 AM
J2.8
The four-dimensional variational data assimilation system for the JMA mesoscale model
Ko Koizumi, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

Poster PDF (320.6 kB)
 
J2.9
An integrated three-dimensional objective analysis scheme in use at the Storm Prediction Center

  11:00 AM
J2.10
3DVAR analysis in the Rapid Update Cycle
Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. Weygandt

Poster PDF (212.5 kB)
  11:15 AM
J2.11
An operational mesoscale RT-FDDA analysis and forecast system
Jennifer M. Cram, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, S. Low-Nam, R. S. Sheu, L. Carson, C. A. Davis, T. Warner, and J. F. Bowers

http://atec-server.rap.ucar.edu/model/fddad22.html

Poster PDF (76.1 kB)
 
J2.12
Adjusting Soil temperature and Moisture using Surface Observations: intial results from a single column model (Formerly Mesoscale Paper 4.3)

  11:30 AM
J2.6a
EXPLICIT INITIALIZATION OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN MESOSCALE FORECAST MODELS (Formerly Paper JP2.5)
Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. A. McGinley and P. Schultz

Poster PDF (58.6 kB)
  11:45 AM
J2.9a
Data assimilation & forecast tests of a new integration scheme for the Met Office Unified Model (Formerly WAF/NWP paper P2.15)
Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. Davies, R. S. Bell, and A. M. Clayton

Poster PDF (115.2 kB)

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 31 July 2001


1
Lunch Break

12:30 PM-12:30 PM: Tuesday, 31 July 2001


1
Joint Weather Briefing By Miami NWS WFO

1:00 PM-2:20 PM: Tuesday, 31 July 2001


2
Winter 2000–2001 Storm Events
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Papers:
  1:00 PM
2.1
Sensitivity to initial state and grid resolution in the prediction of the January 2000 East Coast snowstorm
Fuqing Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno

  1:20 PM
2.2
AFWA MM5 Performance During the "Millenium Storm" and the Winter 2000–2001 Storm Season
Gordon R. Brooks, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and R. J. Swanson Jr., R. J. Craig, R. B. Telfeyan, J. J. Wesely, C. Stock, and R. Nielsen

Poster PDF (87.1 kB)
  1:40 PM
2.3
Impact of initial conditions on local modeling
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and G. Bryan

Poster PDF (77.8 kB)
  2:00 PM
2.4
Experiments with the NCEP Eta model for the 30–31 December 2000 East Coast Snowstorm : sensitivity to initial conditions and sea surface temperature
Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. S. Manikin and K. Brill

2:20 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 31 July 2001


1
Poster Session Overview

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 31 July 2001


Poster Session 2
Poster Session - Numerical Data Assimilation or Analysis: Case Studies and Validation—with Coffee Break
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: William H. Burnett, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command

Papers:
 
P2.1
Experiences from SCRAPE2000—Summer Convective Rainfall in Alabama Prediction Experiment
John T. Bradshaw, NOAA/NWS, Calera, AL; and R. E. Kilduff, R. E. McNeil, K. J. Pence, P. Hart, and W. M. Lapenta

 
P2.2
Sensitivity of short-term forecasts from the Navy COAMPS to grid configuration and data assimilation
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur

 
P2.3
Evaluation of Local-Scale Forecasts for Severe Weather of July 20, 2000
Daniel Birkenheuer, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L. Shaw, S. Albers, and E. J. Szoke

Poster PDF (200.3 kB)
 
P2.4
Comparisons of RUC 20-km and 40-km forecasts for 24 May 2000
Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. E. Schwartz and J. M. Brown

Poster PDF (148.7 kB)
 
P2.5
Short-term forecasting at Kennedy Space Center using the ARPS Data Analysis System
Timothy D. Oram, NASA/Spaceflight Meteorology Group, Houston, TX; and T. Garner and J. L. Case

Poster PDF (158.7 kB)
 
P2.6
Operational Use of Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation at Dugway Proving Ground
Susan E. Krippner, U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT; and S. F. Halvorson, J. M. Cram, Y. Liu, and S. Low-Nam

Poster PDF (121.8 kB)
 
P2.7
A Quantitative Evaluation On The Performance Of A Real-Time Mesoscale FDDA And Forecasting System Under Different Synoptic Situations
Rong-Shyang Sheu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Cram, Y. Liu, and S. Low-Nam

Poster PDF (51.2 kB)
 
P2.8
Remarks on Northern Hemisphere forecast error sensitivity from 1996 to 2000
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Gelaro

 
P2.9
A Meteorological Reanalysis for 1991 Persian Gulf War
J. J. Shi, SAIC, McLean, VA; and S. W. Chang, T. R. Holt, and T. F. Hogan

Poster PDF (42.1 kB)
 
P2.10
A study on forecasting two cases of severe convection: implications for forecast guidance
Milton S. Speer, BOM, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie and L. Qi

 
P2.11
Interesting issues regarding precipitation verification

 
P2.12
Effects of NCEP/DOE Reanalysis Soil Moisture on Forecast Skill

 
P2.13
The effect of using LAPS in the mesoscale numerical prediction for heavy rainfall
Seung-On Hwang, MRI, Seoul, Korea; and Y. -. S. Kim and J. -. W. Seo

Poster PDF (340.0 kB)
 
P2.14
Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation for MM5 and COAMPS
Duanjun Lu, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and P. J. Croft, P. J. Fitzpatrick, and S. Reddy

Poster PDF (166.8 kB)
 
P2.15
Paper has been move to Joint Session J2, Paper Number J2.9A

 
P2.16
Comparison of SSM/I derived sea surface winds with NWP model analysis
R. M. Khaladkar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; and P. N. Mahajan and P. K. Pal

 
P2.17
Verification of RAMS forecast sea breezes and thunderstorm initiation over east-central Florida
Jonathan L. Case, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied Meteorology Unit/ENSCO Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco, A. V. Dianic, D. E. Harms, and P. N. Rosati

Poster PDF (110.3 kB)
 
P2.18
Toward a surface data time continuum: use of the Kalman Filter to Create a Continuous, Quality Controlled Surface Data Set (Formerly Paper Number 6.3)
John A. McGinley, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (415.8 kB)

Joint Poster Session 2
Poster Session - Mesoscale Data Assimilation—with Coffee Break
Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )
Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ.

Papers:
 
JP2.1
Impact of model error and precipitation observations in mesoscale 4DVAR data assimilation

 
JP2.2
Cloud/hydrometeor initialization for the 20-km RUC using satellite and radar data
Dongsoo Kim, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin

Poster PDF (79.6 kB)
 
JP2.3
A Real-time, Three-dimensional Cloud Analysis System at the Naval Research Laboratory
Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Cook, K. Sashegyi, Q. Xu, and L. Wei

 
JP2.4
Expanding the Variational Methods in the LAPS Moisture Analysis
Daniel Birkenheuer, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (162.1 kB)
 
JP2.5
Paper Number JP2.5 has been moved to Joint Session J2, Paper Number J2.6A

 
JP2.5a
The use of three-dimensional analyses of cloud attributes for diabatic initialization of mesoscale models (Formerly Paper J2.6)
Paul Schultz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Albers

 
JP2.6
NIDS-Based Intermittent Diabatic Assimilation and Application to Storm-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction
Donghai Wang, Hampton Univ. and NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and K. K. Droegemeier, D. Jahn, K. -. M. Xu, M. Xue, and J. Zhang

Poster PDF (759.9 kB)
 
JP2.7
On the Added Value of High-Resolution Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Data in a Mesoscale Model
Brian P. Reen, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, K. J. Davis, A. R. Desai, and R. J. Dobosy

Poster PDF (162.7 kB)
 
JP2.8
The introduction of a local objective analysis module in the numerical forecast system at the Brazilian national weather service
Ligia R. Bernardet, Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Brasilia, Brazil; and R. B. Silveira, J. P. Edwards, J. M. D. Mol, and A. F. M. Falcão

Poster PDF (9.6 kB)
 
JP2.9
An operational Local Data Integration System (LDIS) at NWS Melbourne
Peter F. Blottman, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt, D. W. Sharp, A. J. Cristaldi III, J. L. Case, and J. Manobianco

 
JP2.10
Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data into Mesoscale Models
William M. Lapenta, NASA/MSFC NSSTC, Huntsville, AL; and R. Suggs, R. T. McNider, G. Jedlovec, and S. R. Dembek

 
JP2.11
Application of the Bratseth Scheme for High Latitude Intermittent Data Assimilation Using the PSU/NCAR MM5 Mesoscale Model
Xingang Fan, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and J. S. Tilley

Poster PDF (306.1 kB)
 
JP2.12
Revisiting the utility of Newtonian nudging for four dimensional data assimilation in high latitude mesoscale forecasts
Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and X. Fan

Poster PDF (410.4 kB)
 
JP2.13
Use of a Snow Prediction Scheme in a Mesoscale Realtime FDDA System
Simon Low-Nam, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, J. M. Cram, Y. Liu, R. S. Sheu, and J. Dudhia

Poster PDF (165.3 kB)
 
JP2.14
Impact of Continuous Real-Time FDDA on Short-Term (0-12 hour) Forecasts
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Cram, C. A. Davis, T. Warner, S. Low-Nam, and R. S. Sheu

Poster PDF (259.0 kB)
 
JP2.15
New sea-surface temperature analysis implemented at NCEP
Jean Thiebaux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and B. Katz and W. Wang

 
JP2.16
Operational evaluation of the new sea-surface temperature analysis implemented at NCEP

 
JP2.17
Refractivity Data Assimilation
Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Nai, T. Rogers, T. Haack, and S. Burk

 
JP2.18
A MM5-based four-dimensional variational analysis system developed for distributed memory multiprocessor computers
Frank H. Ruggiero, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA; and G. D. Modica, T. Nehrkorn, M. Cerniglia, J. G. Michalakes, and X. Zou

Poster PDF (77.7 kB)

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 31 July 2001


2
Winter 2000-2001 Storm Events: Continued
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:
  4:00 PM
2.5
Verification and Evaluation of NOGAPS and COAMPS Analyses and Forecasts for the 24–26 January 2000 East Coast Cyclone
Carlyle H. Wash, NPS, Monterey, CA; and G. Schmeiser and P. M. Pauley

http://www.met.nps.navy.mil/~wash/WAF/paper.doc

Poster PDF (12.5 kB)
  4:20 PM
2.6
Observation Sensitivity and the Mix of Observing Systems
Nancy L. Baker, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. H. Langland

Poster PDF (135.8 kB)
  4:40 PM
2.7
Using lagged average forecasts to identify initialization errors
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. E. Hart

Poster PDF (163.2 kB)

8:00 PM-8:00 PM: Tuesday, 31 July 2001


Panel Discussion 2
Joint Panel and Group Discussion: Has Mesoscale modeling outpaced our undersatnding of basic physical processes?
Sponsors: (Joint between the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Moderator: Charles Doswell III, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma
Panelists: Cliff Mass, Univ. of Washington; Kelvin Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma; Jimy Dudhia, NCAR; Richard Hodur, NRL

Wednesday, 1 August 2001

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Wednesday, 1 August 2001


WED 1 AUG

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 1 August 2001


3
Numerical Data Assimilation or Analysis: Case Studies and Validation
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO

Papers:
  8:00 AM
3.1
Recent Development Activities in Weather, Water and Climate Forecast System Development at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center
Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Petersen, G. J. DiMego, H. L. Pan, D. B. Rao, M. Ji, K. E. Mitchell, J. C. Derber, and N. Surgi

  8:20 AM
3.2
On 4D-Var and the use of pressure tendency data to analyse the intensification-rate of baroclinic storms
Erik H. Andersson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

  8:40 AM
3.3
Studies with the DAO Retrospective Analysis System
Ricardo Todling, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and Y. Zhu

Poster PDF (207.3 kB)
  9:00 AM
3.4
Verification of 20-km RUC surface and precipitation forecasts
Barry E. Schwartz, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin

Poster PDF (284.9 kB)
  9:20 AM
3.5
Assimilation and Forecasting Experiments on Supercell Storms: Part I: Experiments with Simulated Data
Juanzhen Sun, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook

  9:40 AM
3.6
Assimilation and forecasting experiments on supercell storms. Part II: Experiments with WSR-88D data
N. Andrew Crook, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 1 August 2001


1
Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:50 AM: Wednesday, 1 August 2001


3
Numerical Data Assimilation or Analysis: Case Studies and Validation: Continued
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:
  10:30 AM
3.7
Verification of cloud forecasts with in-situ aircraft measurements
Hong Guan, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and S. G. Cober and G. A. Isaac

  10:50 AM
3.8
Extreme Rainfall Prediction for a Watershed on the East Coast of Australia
Lance M. Leslie, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and M. S. Speer and L. Qi

  11:10 AM
3.9
OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE LAPS-MM5 "HOT START" LOCAL FORECAST MODEL
Brent L. Shaw, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and E. R. Thaler and E. J. Szoke

Poster PDF (363.3 kB)
  11:30 AM
3.10
On the relative importance of operational aircraft winds and satellite-derived winds in the depiction of atmospheric flow in the North Pacific
Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. Barker

Poster PDF (25.3 kB)

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 1 August 2001


1
Lunch Break

12:30 PM-12:30 PM: Wednesday, 1 August 2001


1
Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO

1:00 PM-2:20 PM: Wednesday, 1 August 2001


4
Instruments and Data Collection
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

Papers:
  1:00 PM
4.1
Observing System Simulation Experiments for NPOESS
Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Masutani, J. S. Woollen, J. C. Derber, R. Atlas, J. Terry, G. D. Emmitt, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, and T. J. Kleespies

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/nwp2001/index.html

  1:20 PM
4.2
The Impact of QuikScat on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. C. Bloom, J. Ardizzone, E. Brin, J. Terry, and T. -. W. Yu

Poster PDF (412.5 kB)
  1:40 PM
4.3
Satellite data assimilation: impact on tropical cyclone forecast
J.-M. Willemet, Météo France, Ste Clotilde, La Réunion, France; and A. Lasserre-Bigorry

Poster PDF (36.2 kB)
  2:00 PM
4.4
observations and numerical simulations of tropopause PV trough filamentation and "Cut-Off" Low development over the North Pacific Ocean
Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/OAR/ETL, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang, C. S. Velden, D. Parrish, and Z. Toth

2:20 PM-2:20 PM: Wednesday, 1 August 2001


1
Poster Session Overview

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 1 August 2001


Poster Session 3
Poster Session - Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development—with Coffee Break
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: Carlyle H. Wash, NPS

Papers:
 
P3.1
Development of MOS Thunderstorm and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast Equations with Multiple Data Sources
Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

 
P3.2
A statistical system for short-term probabilistic forecasts of thunderstorms using high-resolution datasets
Joby L. Hilliker, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

 
P3.3
Wildfire outbreak and suppression: Cases from 1998 Florida Wildfires
Charles H. Paxton, NOAA/NWS, Ruskin, FL; and A. G. Laing, S. L. Goodrick, and C. Maxwell

Poster PDF (438.7 kB)
 
P3.4
On the formation of a strong snowfall gradient in a Midwestern snowstorm: Wave synergy, deformation, and the TROWAL
Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and D. Cissell and C. E. Halcomb

 
P3.5
Left-moving thunderstorms in a high plains, weakly-sheared environment
John F. Weaver, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. F. Dostalek and L. Phillips

Poster PDF (354.1 kB)
 
P3.6
Poster has been moved to Poster Session P5, number P5.17

 
P3.7
APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES TO ANALYSIS OF FRONTOGENESIS AND FRONTOLYSIS PROCESSES
Dariusz Chaladyniak, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and I. A. Winnicki

 
P3.8
Numerical models results application to mesoscale weather forecasting
Slawomir A. Pietrek, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and J. M. Jasinski

 
P3.9
Improving forecasts of dense fog over north Florida
Mark R. Jarvis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg, P. H. Ruscher, and A. I. Watson

 
P3.10
Multi-dimensional analysis of an extreme thundersnow event during the 30 December 2000 snowstorm
Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA

Poster PDF (856.2 kB)
 
P3.11
Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm 2001 Meteorological Evaluation
Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and D. Sims and V. Passetti

Poster PDF (101.6 kB)
 
P3.12
Model Trends and Satellite Imagery in Forecasting
Brian Motta, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Grumm and A. Mostek

Poster PDF (184.7 kB)
 
P3.13
Mesoscale Meteorology "Primer": Training for the Operational Forecaster
Wendell A. Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA; and W. T. Curry

Poster PDF (404.0 kB)
 
P3.14
An Extensive Set of NWP Training Materials on the Web
Richard E. Cianflone, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and W. Schreiber-Abshire, W. Bua, and S. Jascourt

 
P3.15
Cold front or baroclinic trough?

 
P3.16
An Evaluation of the National Weather Service Severe Weather Warning Performance in Florida Based on the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 (WSR-88D)
Fred R. Johnson, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and P. T. Welsh and C. Herbster

 
P3.17
Advancing Operational Forecasting Through Collaborative Applied Research Programs at the Storm Prediction Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory
Paul R. Janish, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin

Poster PDF (107.0 kB)
 
P3.18
A discovery of high efficient summer drought and flood forecast field with eddy energy hysteresis phenomena existence in fact


Poster Session 4
Poster Session - Instruments and Data Collection—with Coffee Break
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: John McGinley, NOAA/ERL/FSL

Papers:
 
P4.1
Developments in the correction of radiosonde relative humidity biases at The Met Office
Martin C. Sharpe, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and B. Macpherson

Poster PDF (72.6 kB)
 
P4.2
Assimilating satellite wind, moisture, and temperature for numerical forecast improvements during the PACific landfalling JETs (PACJET) experiment
John R. Mecikalski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, M. C. Morgan, D. Kleist, D. Stettner, K. Goodstein, H. M. Kim, and B. Baum

Poster PDF (997.4 kB)
 
P4.3
Assimilation of GOES rapid-Scan winds into an experimental ETA model during Hurricane Keith
Howard I. Berger, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Poster PDF (72.4 kB)
 
P4.4
GWINDEX—GOES rapid-scan WINDs EXperiment: Applications for west coast forecasting
Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. Stettner

Poster PDF (309.7 kB)
 
P4.5
Assimilation of rapid-scan satellite cloud motion vectors into the RUC model in support of the PACJET experiment
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and C. S. Velden

Poster PDF (407.3 kB)
 
P4.6
Impact of GMS-5 and GOES-9 Satellite-Derived Winds on the Prediction of a NORPEX Extratropical Cyclone
Qingnong Xiao, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou, M. Pondeca, M. A. Shapiro, and C. S. Velden

Poster PDF (1005.3 kB)
 
P4.7
Use/impact of NESDIS GOES wind data within an operational mesoscale FDDA system
Jennifer M. Cram, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Daniels, W. Bresky, Y. Liu, S. Low-Nam, and R. S. Sheu

http://atec-server.rap.ucar.edu/model/fddad22.html

Poster PDF (155.2 kB)
 
P4.8
Utilization of satellite scatterometer wind measurements and NEXRAD precipitation data to improve regional ocean forecasts
David E. Weissman, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY; and J. S. Tongue, M. A. Bourassa, and L. A. Bliven

Poster PDF (772.6 kB)
 
P4.9
Assimilation of QuikScat winds in MM5 model for track and intensity prediction of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones

 
P4.10
Assimilation of radar data for 1–4 hour snowband forecasting using a mesoscale model
Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook, J. Sun, and R. Rasmussen

 
P4.11
Initialization of a hurricane vortex with single-Doppler radar data
Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald and W. C. Lee

 
P4.12
A modeling study of Hurricane Danny (1997) using an artificial initial vortex
Sytske K. Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL

 
P4.13
Assimilation of Cloud- and Land-Affected TOVS/ATOVS Level 1B Radiances in DAO's Next Generation Finite-volume Data Assimilation System
Joanna Joiner, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. da Silva

 
P4.14
A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH OF THE CLOUD COVER BY THERMIC INFRARED MEASUREMENTS
Didier Gillotay, Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium; and T. Besnard and F. Zanghi

Poster PDF (157.3 kB)
 
P4.15
Lightning Analysis And Forecasting
Jean Souviron, AES, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and D. Jacob, V. Turcotte, R. Frenette, and M. Nadeau

Poster PDF (2.1 MB)
 
P4.16
Lightning Watch and Warning Support to Spacelift Operations
Johnny W. Weems, Air Force Weather Agency, Patrick AFB, FL; and C. S. Pinder, W. P. Roeder, and B. F. Boyd

Poster PDF (133.8 kB)
 
P4.17
Considerations in providing a natural dataset for lidar OSSE studies
Adrian Marroquin, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Smart and L. S. Wharton

 
P4.18
Impact of Lidar Wind Sounding on Mesoscale Forecast
Shih-Hung Chou, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and T. L. Miller

 
P4.19
Comparison of SSM/I Derived Sea surface Winds with NWP Model Analysis
R. M. Khaladkar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; and P. N. Mahajan and P. K. Pal

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Wednesday, 1 August 2001


4
Instruments and Data Collection
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: William Burnett, CNMOC

Papers:
  4:00 PM
4.5
Impact of lost Russian RAOBs on numerical weather prediction skill
M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Kistler, Y. Zhu, and J. Giraytys

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/projects/naos/naos.html

Poster PDF (49.8 kB)
  4:20 PM
4.6
Toward improved use of GOES satellite derived winds at the NCEP environmental modelling center (EMC)
Xiujuan Su, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Derber, S. J. Lord, C. S. Velden, and J. Daniels

Poster PDF (27.9 kB)
  4:40 PM
4.7
Physical and Computational Considerations for the Use of GPS Occultation Observations in NWP
X. Zou, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. Liu, H. Shao, F. C. Vandenberghe, R. A. Anthes, and B. Wang

Poster PDF (143.5 kB)

7:00 PM-10:45 PM: Wednesday, 1 August 2001


1
Conference Cruise and Dinner

Thursday, 2 August 2001

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


THUR 2 AUG

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


5
Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: Kim Curry, Naval Pacific METOC Center

Papers:
  8:00 AM
5.1
The THOR project-Reducing the impact of thunderstorms on aviation and the general public through a multi-agency effort
Stephan B. Smith, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Pace, S. J. Goodman, D. W. Burgess, D. Smarsh, R. D. Roberts, and M. M. Wolfson

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)
  8:20 AM
5.2
Operational surface mesoanalysis
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. M. Saleeby

  8:40 AM
5.3
Observational data and MOS: the challenges in creating high-quality guidance
Rebecca L. Allen, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD

  9:00 AM
5.4
A comparison of current and proposed surface analysis techniques
Eric G. Hoffman, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and F. Sanders

  9:20 AM
5.5
A lake effect snowfall in Western Nevada—Part I: Synoptic setting and observations
Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/NWS, Reno, NV; and R. Collins, T. Cylke, M. Deutschendorf, and D. Mercer

  9:40 AM
5.6
A lake effect snowfall in western Nevada—part II: radar characteristics and quantitative precipitation estimates
Arlen W. Huggins, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. E. Kingsmill and M. M. Cairns

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


1
Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:50 AM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


5
Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development: Continued
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:
  10:30 AM
5.7
A preliminary investigation of the genesis of Atlantic tropical storms in the 2000 Hurricane season using the Operational Global data
V. Mohan Karyampudi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Davison

  10:50 AM
5.8
Evolution of Hurricane Michael (2000) from cold- to warm- to cold-core over a 5-day period: Observations and modeling
Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. F. Bosart, J. Molinari, C. S. Velden, and J. L. Evans

  11:10 AM
5.9
Overview of 2 difficult forecast scenarios for the mid atlantic U.S. during the 2000–2001 winter season—lessons from data analysis
Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)
  11:30 AM
5.10
Detection and Evaluation of the Effects of Split Fronts on the Evolution of Appalachian Cold Air Damming
Michael J. Brennan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Koch and G. M. Lackmann

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


1
Lunch Break

12:30 PM-1:00 PM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


1
Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO

1:00 PM-2:20 PM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


6
Ensembles (Please note that the paper numbering for this session has changed since it was originally published)
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: Thomas Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC

Papers:
  1:00 PM
6.1
An overview of ensemble forecasting and data assimilation
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (142.9 kB)
  1:20 PM
6.2
Data Assimilation with an Unstable Shallow Water System Using A Cycling Representer Algorithm
Liang Xu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Daley

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)
  1:39 PM
6.3
Paper 6.3 has been moved to Poster Session P2, Number P2.18

  1:40 PM
6.4
Ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation
Milija Zupanski, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD

  2:00 PM
6.5
Forecast sensitivity of extratropical transition intensification to downstream synoptic-scale perturbations
John R. Gyakum, McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ, Canada; and R. J. McTaggart-Cowan

Poster PDF (86.5 kB)

2:20 PM-2:20 PM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


1
Poster Session Overview
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


Poster Session 5
Poster Session - Operational Use of Analysis for Forecast Development—with Coffee Break
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: Jeff Tongue, NOAA/NWSFO

Papers:
 
P5.1
Mid-Level Dry Intrusions as a Factor in Tornadogenesis Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Central and Western Gulf Area
Lon Curtis, KWTX-TV, Waco, TX

 
P5.2
Short-Term Forecasting of Cloud Ceiling Categories at Kennedy Space Center for the Space Shuttle Program
Winifred C. Lambert, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied Meteorology Unit/ENSCO, Inc, Cocoa Beach, FL

Poster PDF (45.6 kB)
 
P5.3
Utilizing the Warning Decision Support System for Detecting Tornadoes Associated with Tropical Storm Helene
Thomas J. Turnage, NOAA/NWS, Tallahassee, FL

 
P5.4
High resolution precipitation climatologies from radar data
Henry E. Fuelberg, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and G. S. Quina, B. A. Mroczka, R. J. Lanier, J. Bradberry, and J. P. Breidenbach

 
P5.5
A 20-Year Synoptic Climatology of the South Plains Dewpoint / Dryline
Mark R. Conder, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and A. L. Doggett and R. E. Peterson

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/conder/publications/presentations.htm

Poster PDF (590.5 kB)
 
P5.6
A 30-year climatology of convective snow events for the contiguous United States
Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and C. E. Halcomb and R. L. Ebert

 
P5.7
A Comprehensive Climatology of Appalachian Cold Air Damming
Christopher M. Bailey, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann, G. Hartfield, and K. Keeter

Poster PDF (126.0 kB)
 
P5.8
An objective climatology of Carolina coastal fronts
Wyat K. Appel, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. J. Riordan

Poster PDF (49.3 kB)
 
P5.9
A River and Flash Flood Climatology of Southern New England: Results from 1994–2000
David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and J. DelliCarpini

 
P5.10
A team-based forecast process using medium range model consistency loops
Eric F. Grelson, U.S. Air Force, Barksdale AFB, LA; and C. J. Lee

Poster PDF (133.2 kB)
 
P5.11
Development of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensification Index
Gabriel S. Rothman, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH

 
P5.12
A case study of a windstorm in the Brazilian Amazon
Mamedes L. Melo, Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Brasilia, Brazil; and F. Lacerda, L. R. Bernardet, and R. B. da Silveira

http://www.inmet.gov.br

Poster PDF (182.7 kB)
 
P5.13
A method concept of weather forecasting along an aircraft route based on numerical model data
Slawomir A. Pietrek, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and K. Kroszczynski

 
P5.14
Instability and forcing in 4 cases of convective snow from the 1999–2000 winter season
Christopher E. Halcomb, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

 
P5.15
Remote Weather Assessment Using Fused Data and Knowledge Discovery from Databases
Richard L. Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Hadjimichael, A. P. Kuciauskas, W. T. Thompson, and K. L. Richardson

 
P5.16
Satellite Applications for Tropical Wave/Tropical Cyclone Tracking
Jason P. Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. S. Velden and J. R. Rhome

 
P5.17
Synoptic and mesoscale analysis of the 9 August 2000 Appalachian-crossing derechos (formerly poster P3.6)
Stephen J. Keighton, NOAA/NWS, Blacksburg, VA; and S. Nogueira and N. Belk

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/rnk/research.html

Poster PDF (462.3 kB)

Poster Session 6
Poster Session - Ensembles—with Coffee Break
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Organizer: John Gyakum, McGill Univ.

Papers:
 
P6.1
Paper P6.1 has been moved to the Mesoscale Processes Program, Session 9, Paper number 9.6a

 
P6.2
Distance-dependent filtering of background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalman filter
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and C. Snyder

Poster PDF (174.6 kB)
 
P6.3
Kalman filter error statistics and the global meteorological observing network
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop

 
P6.4
A simplified model for predicting forecast error variances
Yong Li, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. E. Cohn, L. P. Riishojgaard, J. Guo, and Z. Toth

 
P6.5
A bayesian technique for estimating covariance parameters in large scale statistical objective analysis
David F. Parrish, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser

Poster PDF (764.9 kB)
 
P6.6
The exact error covariances of an autonomous optimal data assimilation cycle: Implications for ensembles and the global observing network
Craig H. Bishop, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA

 
P6.7
Wavelet Approximation in the Computation of Error Covariance Evolution
Andrew V. Tangborn, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD

 
P6.8
A Real-Time Ensemble for the Prediction of Hurricane Tracks in the Atlantic Basin
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar and C. H. Bishop

Poster PDF (46.6 kB)
 
P6.9
Ensemble methods applied to hurricane track forecasting
Brian F. Jewett, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy and H. Liu

 
P6.10
Probabilistic forecasts and optimal perturbation ensembles

 
P6.11
Estimation of uncertainties in atmospheric data assimilation using singular vectors
Hyun Mee Kim, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and R. E. Morss

Poster PDF (189.1 kB)
 
P6.12
Unified treatment of measurement bias and correlation in variational analysis with consideration of the preconditioning problem
R. James Purser, General Sciences Corp., Beltsville, MD; and J. C. Derber

Poster PDF (906.1 kB)
 
P6.13
A Comparison of Different Ensemble Generation Techniques

 
P6.14
Can we predict the reduction in forecast error variance produced by targeted observations?
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop, I. Szunyogh, and Z. Toth

Poster PDF (361.3 kB)
 
P6.15
Ensemble forecasts using perturbed physics in a multidimensional parameter space
Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. J. Anderson and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Poster PDF (45.2 kB)
 
P6.16
Using parallel data assimilation cycles to estimate analysis uncertainity

 
P6.17
Dynamic Ensemble MOS

 
P6.18
MM5 adjoint development using TAMC: Experiences with an automatic code generator
Thomas Nehrkorn, AER, Inc., Lexington, MA; and G. D. Modica, M. Cerniglia, F. H. Ruggiero, J. G. Michalakes, and X. Zou

Poster PDF (106.0 kB)
 
P6.19
The role of the momentum divergence equation ellipticity in the numerical model solutions
Ireneusz A. Winnicki, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; and K. Kroszczynski

Poster PDF (36.9 kB)

4:00 PM-5:20 PM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


6
Ensembles
Sponsor: 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:
  4:00 PM
6.6
Numerical Prediction of Typhoon Tracks and Intensity using a Multimodel Superensemble
T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti, M. Fiorino, and M. Nagata

Poster PDF (63.7 kB)
  4:20 PM
6.7
Implementation of an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter in a Global NWP Model
Jeffrey L. Anderson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. Zhang

  4:40 PM
6.8
Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill

Poster PDF (153.0 kB)
 
6.9
Statistics of Background Error Derived from an Ensemble of Analyses

  5:20 PM
6.10
Applications of spatially recursive digital filters to the synthesis of inhomogeneous and anisotropic covariance operators in a statistical objective analysis
R. James Purser, General Sciences Corp., Beltsville, MD; and W. S. Wu and D. F. Parrish

Poster PDF (872.2 kB)

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


Panel Discussion 3
Joint Panel and Group Discussion: How can we better estimate and communicate uncertainty in mesoscale forecasts?
Sponsors: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes )
Moderator: John Gyakum, McGill Univ.
Panelists: M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC; David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL; Richard Grumm, NOAA/NWS

9:00 PM-9:00 PM: Thursday, 2 August 2001


Conference Ends

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