Tuesday, 31 July 2001
Impact of Continuous Real-Time FDDA on Short-Term (0-12 hour) Forecasts
It is well-known that high-resolution mesoscale models can resolve
local details of wind fields and thermal and moisture contrasts
forced by underlying inhomogeneities of surface characteristics and
topography. Nevertheless, the capabilities of conventional statically
initialized mesoscale models are strongly limited by the lack of
important mesoscale details in their initial conditions (I.C.) due
to both insufficient observations and the model spin-up processes
resulting from the dynamical and physical inconsistency between the
model and I.C. In this paper, we demonstrate a Real-Time Four-Dimensional
Data Assimilation (RTFDDA) method to alleviate this deficiency and
improve the short-term forecast for a Utah-centered test region. The
system timely collects all available synoptic and asynoptic observations
and dynamically assimilates them into a nested-grid, 3-domain MM5 model
with resolutions of 30/10/3.33km, using a continuous, 3-hourly cycling
mode. The system has been operationally running since September 2000.
This paper will present several case studies of locally-forced weather
processes. Parallel experiments with and without FDDA were conducted
for varying forecast lengths in order to quantitatively evaluate the
impact of the RTFDDA system on the 0 - 12 hour forecast of local
circulations. The results show an evident positive effect of the RTFDDA.
Analyses of the forcing mechanisms and development processes of the
meso-beta and -gamma scale circulations were also conducted.
Effects of RTFDDA forecasts of different lengths are investigated.
Finally, a statistical verification is performed for a late spring month
to generalize the conclusion.
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