18th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, and Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Thursday, 2 August 2001
A Real-Time Ensemble for the Prediction of Hurricane Tracks in the Atlantic Basin
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar and C. H. Bishop
Poster PDF (46.6 kB)
A 41-member VICBAR orthonormalized bred mode ensemble forecasting system has been run in real-time during the 1998 through 2000 hurricane seasons. The ensemble of track forecasts has been investigated for the accuracy of the control versus the ensemble mean and the ability of the ensemble to span the true evolution of the tropical cyclone track. The ensemble spans the true tropical cyclone track about as often as the operational suite of models used at NHC. However, the operational suite does not show a predictive relationship between the ensemble spread and error, whereas the VBAR ensemble does. These results, and implications for probabilistic landfall forecasts, targeting, and data assimilation for tropical cyclones will be presented.

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