Thursday, 2 August 2001
A bayesian technique for estimating covariance parameters in large scale statistical objective analysis
As operational variational analysis schemes evolve to accommodate more
adaptive representations of the estimated background error covariance,
including inhomogeneities and anisotropies, there is a corresponding
greater need for objective statistical methods to establish the parameters
of the covariances involved on a case-to-case basis. In their traditional
form, methods for maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimation, while
statistically `efficient', are prohibitively expensive to apply directly
when the measurement datasets are as large as those typical of a modern
meteorological assimilation system. However, the Monte-Carlo method of
randomized trace estimation, proposed in another context by D. Girard,
which sidesteps the exorbitant cost of directly estimating the trace of a
large symmetric matrix, can be exploited to eliminate the computational
bottle-neck of the Bayesian estimation problem. This makes it possible
to extract objective real-time estimates of several covariance parameters
simultaneously from the observation data. We present an outline of the method
and preliminary results in the context of NCEP's regional 3D variational
analysis scheme.
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