Monday, 30 July 2001
High-resolution simulations of Hurricane Floyd using MM5 with vortex-following mesh refinement
Present operational models, based on the primitive equations,
frequently fail to produce forecasts of hurricane intensity that are
of sufficient accuracy for forecasters. Furthermore, these models lack
spatial resolution necessary to represent the small-scale inner core
of hurricanes. To overcome such limitations, investigators have
turned to nonhydrostatic models designed for higher spatial
resolutions than operational models. Recently, the nonhydrostatic
version of the PSU/NCAR MM5 has been used to simulate hurricanes at 5
km resolution with success, but the lack of a vortex-following mesh
refinement scheme in the available versions of the MM5 have made
integrations with 5 km or higher resolution for periods greater than a
few hours impractical. In this paper we introduce a vortex-following
mesh refinement scheme into MM5 in order to facilitate relatively long
(i.e., several days) simulations at 1-2 km horizontal grid spacing
(which is the grid spacing necessary to resolve the inner cores of
hurricanes). We present results from a set of 6-day simulations of
Hurricane Floyd in which we use our modified version of the MM5 with
successively refined meshes (down to 1.67 km grid spacing). We
compare our simulation results with available observational data sets,
including dropsonde temperature and humidity profiles, airborne radar
data, TRMM PR and TMI data, and QuikScat scatterometer derived surface
wind fields. We find that the forecast track of the model is in good
agreement with observation, and that the forecast track is insensitive
to model resolution. In contrast, we find that the structure and
intensity of the simulated hurricane is quite sensitive to resolution,
with the finer-resolution simulations producing stronger and more
realistic hurricanes vortices.
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