In ERDAS, RAMS is run in real-time on four nested grids with horizontal resolutions of 60, 15, 5, and 1.25 km using full microphysics on all grids. The model is initialized twice-daily at 0000 and 1200 UTC using operationally-available observational data and run for a 24-h forecast period on local workstations with multiple processors. The 12-h forecast from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta model provides the background field for the initial condition and the Eta 12-36-h forecasts are used as boundary conditions.
The primary goal of the evaluation is to determine the accuracy of RAMS forecasts during all seasons and under specific weather regimes. The overall evaluation consists of an objective and a subjective component; however, this paper presents the results of the objective component only. The objective evaluation focuses on point error statistics and the sensitivity of the model forecasts to physical parameterizations, resolution, and other factors. A high-resolution network of KSC/CCAFS surface wind towers located entirely within the 1.25-km RAMS grid is used for model validation. The AMU computed error statistics of temperature, wind, and moisture at the KSC/CCAFS wind-tower locations in east-central Florida.
This paper will present wind and temperature error statistics from the KSC/CCAFS tower network classified by three regimes. First, the cumulative statistics for the months of May-September 2000 will be discussed. Second, the point forecast errors will be shown for prevailing surface wind regimes: easterly, westerly, and light or light and variable. Finally, the RAMS forecast errors will be presented for combinations of forecast and observed thunderstorm days. The point error statistics for all these regimes will be presented at the conference.