Thursday, 2 August 2001: 4:20 PM
Implementation of an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter in a Global NWP Model
To improve the skill of ensemble prediction systems, one must be able
to estimate accurately the probability distribution of the state
of an atmospheric model given a set of observations. A new ensemble
assimilation methodology, the ensemble adjustment filter, has been
developed and applied to observing system simulation experiments in
a fully parameterized primitive equation numerical weather prediction
model. The filtering method uses information from an ensemble of
model integrations to obtain an estimate of the covariance between
model state variables and observations. Each available observation
is then allowed to impact the prior distribution for each state
variable independently. However, the way in which the required
product of the observational error distribution and the prior state
distribution is computed maintains much of the information about
covariances of the prior state variables. A one year ensemble
assimilation making use of 600 randomly located column observations
of a control run of the NWP model has been performed. An analysis
of the ensemble mean and ensemble spread from the filter assimilation
is presented. Of particular interest are ensemble assimilated fields
of non-state quantities like precipitation. The potential for
operational assimilations based on the ensemble adjustment filter
is discussed. Dealing with systematic model error remains a
potentially serious problem.
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