In this paper we present results with a 4D-Var scheme that makes effective use of tendency information in the form of time series of hourly surface pressure data from synops and ships. We show that enhanced observation frequency improves the short-range forecast of rapidly developing small scale synoptic systems.
Single-observation experiments showed that a pressure time-sequence from a single surface station can intensify the analysed development of a mid-latitude baroclinic system, that was underestimated in the background. The structure of the analysis increment is indicative of increased baroclinicity, through sharpened frontal temperature gradients, lowered tropopause and increased vertical motion. Thus is far from what could be expected from the background term alone, but rather a demonstration of the strong dynamical influence on the 4D-Var increments.