Thursday, 2 August 2001
A team-based forecast process using medium range model consistency loops
The 26th Operational Weather Squadron is developing and testing a technique of model interpretation to support team-based production of forecaster-in-the-loop regional mission graphic products for the 0-72 hour window as well as other planning products. Beginning at day 7, synopticians evaluate long range (3-10 days) graphic products for model focus and variation around a target date using a consistency loop at a specific valid time rather than viewing model progression loop from current time to valid time. Trends and confidence in the model are evaluted, enabling synopticians to forecast the placement of major features for each valid time. As each valid time becomes closer to current time, more models are evaluated and used to assess feature placement.
Beginning at day 5, synopticians' forecast charts are passed to zone forecasters, who shift focus from model consistency to sensible weather expectations. By day 3, the forecast team has detailed expectations of feature placement and sensible weather to create a product suite for 0-72 hours by reconciling 72 hour forecast conditions and current conditions.