18th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, and Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Session 9: Mesoscale predictability and ensembles

Wednesday, 1 August 2001: 9:30 AM-1:44 PM
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Organizer:  M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
Papers:
  9:30 AM
9.1
Short Term Mesoscale Ensembles over the Southwest United States during the Monsoon
David R. Bright, NOAA/NWSFO, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen and D. J. Stensrud

  9:45 AM
9.2
Predictability studies with the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system
M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du

  10:00 AM
9.3
Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest
Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

  10:15 AM
9.4
Sensitivity of the 3-4 May 1999 Tornadic Outbreak to Synoptic Scale Initial Conditions
Paul J. Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and D. M. Schultz and R. Romero

  10:30 AM
9.5
Status report on the predictability of mesoscale gravity waves with numerical weather prediction models
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO

 
9.6
The influence of moist convection on the predictability of large scales

  10:45 AM
9.7
Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction of Mid-latitude Cyclones
Mohan K. Ramamurthy, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. Cui

  11:00 AM
9.8
A Comparison of Mesoscale Model Forecast Accuracy Using Random and a Simplified Targetting Approach
Wendell A. Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. K. Miller

Poster PDF (110.9 kB)
  11:14 AM
9.9
Inferences of predictability associated with warm season precipitation episodes
R. E. Carbone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Tuttle, D. A. Ahijevych, and S. B. Trier

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/episodes

Poster PDF (334.9 kB)
  11:29 AM
9.10
Forecast evaluation of a mixed-physics ensemble
Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen, D. J. Stensrud, and H. E. Brooks

Poster PDF (665.5 kB)
  11:44 AM
9.2a
Coffee Break

  12:14 PM
9.6a
Tests of an ensemble Kalman filter at convective scales (formerly paper P6.1 in 18WAF/14NWP)
C. Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun, N. A. Crook, and F. Zhang

Poster PDF (39.9 kB)
  12:29 PM
9.7a
Discussion

  12:44 PM
9.7b
Lunch Break (12:00–1:00 p.m.)

  1:14 PM
9.7c
Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO (12:30-1:00 p.m.)

  1:44 PM
9.7d
Session 9: Continued

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