The Navy Earth System Prediction Capability: Version 2 Developments

The Navy Earth System Predictability Capability (Navy ESPC) is a global coupled forecast system that consists of the NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) atmosphere model, the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and the Community Ice CodE (CICE). This system has been developed to meet the U. S. Navy needs for high-resolution global environmental forecasts on timescales from days to months, and a unique aspect of the system is the eddy resolving ocean model at the ensemble and deterministic resolutions. Navy ESPC V1-E (ensemble), consisting of weekly 45-day 16-member ensemble forecasts, became operational in August 2020. We will present upgrades planned for Navy ESPC V2-E and Navy ESPC V2-D (deterministic) systems currently undergoing testing for operational transition. New capabilities and upgrades from V1 to V2 include one-way coupling to the WAVEWATCH III wave model, an extension of the NAVGEM top to 100 km and improved representation of the middle atmosphere, updating the CICE component from V4 to V6, and increased NAVGEM horizontal resolution and inclusion of ocean tides in the ensemble configuration. Upgrades planned beyond Navy ESPC V2, including improvements to the data assimilation and ensemble design, will be also be presented.