32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)/20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

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Sunday, 16 July 2023

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 16 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Monday, 17 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Session 1

Meso to Subseasonal Scale Meteorological Phenomena I

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Daniel James Lloveras; Thomas Galarneau

8:30 AM

1.1

Forecasting the Forecast Skill: GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Victor A. Gensini, PhD, CCM, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL

1.2

Where'd That Come From? A Deeper Dive into Marginal U.S. Tornado Environments

9:00 AM

1.3

Rapid-Scan, Mobile Radar Observations of Tornadogenesis: Warning and Forecasting Implications

Jana B. Houser, PhD, The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and H. B. Bluestein, Z. B. Wienhoff, K. Thiem, and J. C. Snyder

9:15 AM

1.4

An Environment and Regime Based Approach to Large Hail Predictors

John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., MOUNT PLEASANT, MI; and C. J. Nixon, M. Kumjian, and M. Taszarek

9:30 AM

1.5

27-Year Climatology of Severe Wind-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States

Andrew Wade, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. J. Squitieri and I. L. Jirak

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Session 1

Mesoscale Convective Systems

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

CoChair: Elisa Murillo

8:30 AM

1.1

Objectively Diagnosing Characteristics of Mesoscale Organization from Radar Reflectivity and Ambient Winds

Ewan Short, Univ. of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; and T. Lane and C. Vincent

8:45 AM

1.2

Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Summertime Mesoscale Convective Systems: A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model Perspective

Qiu Yang, PNNL, Richland, WA; PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung, Z. Feng, and X. Chen

Handout (11.9 MB)

9:00 AM

1.3

Processes of Colliding Cold Pools Derived from a 356-m High Met-Tower during an Extremely Heavy Rainfall Event Associated with a Squall Line

Yu Du, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Zhuhai, China; and C. Mai and M. Li

9:15 AM

1.4

Environmental Controls on MCS Lifetime Rainfall over Tropical Oceans

Xingchao Chen, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and L. R. Leung, Z. Feng, and Q. Yang

9:30 AM

1.5

Monsoonal MCS Initiation and Gravity Wave Propagation over the Bay of Bengal: Observation and a Linear Theory

Chin-Hsuan Peng, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and X. Chen

Session 1

Physics Parameterizations across Scales for Weather and Climate Modeling I

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Lisa Bengtsson; Louisa Bogar Nance

8:30 AM

1.1

Atmospheric Model Physics for the NOAA Unified Forecast System Applications Across Scales

Fanglin Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

Handout (3.6 MB)

8:45 AM

1.2

Comparison of Different Physics Schemes on Hurricane Forecasts within the UFS-Based HAFS and SRW Applications

Linlin Pan, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and K. Newman, B. Nelson, and M. Biswas

9:00 AM

1.3

Using a Process-Based Analysis to Optimize the Orographic Drag Parameterization in the NOAA Unified Forecast System

Michael D. Toy, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson and F. Yang

1.4

Developing a Unified Prognostic Cloud Scheme for the UFS

9:30 AM

1.5

Developing Next-Generation Physics for UFS Applications: The Microphysics Parameterization Challenges

Jian-Wen Bao, NOAA, Boulder, CO; NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and F. Yang, G. Grell, J. D. Doyle, G. Thompson, L. Bernardet, L. Bengtsson, H. L. Tolman, Dr. Ir., and N. A. Jacobs

9:45 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Virtual Poster Session

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Simulations of Rising Thermals Using a Lagrangian Stochastic Closure for the Subgrid Turbulent Fluxes

Valerian Jewtoukoff, Univ. of Warsaw, Faculty of Physics, Poland, Warsaw, Poland; and G. C. Abade and M. Wacławczyk

Climatological Characteristics of Hydrometeors in Precipitating Clouds over Eastern China and Their Relationship with Precipitation Based on ERA5 Reanalysis

Wenhua Gao, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 11, China

Diurnal Off-Mountain Propagation of Rainfall and Low-Level Vertical Velocity over the Leeside of the Yungui Plateau: A Gravity Wave Mechanism

The Generation of Two Episodes of High Winds by a Long-Lived Quasi-Linear Convection System in South China

Xin Xu, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, 32, China

Handout (565.9 kB)

Study of the Dynamics and Upstream Track Deflection Associated with Typhoon Nepartak (2016) Passing over Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range

Richarde Graham II, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and S. M. S. KARIM and Y. L. Lin

Intercomparison of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Mesoscale Kinetic Energy Resolved by the High-Resolution Global Reanalysis Datasets

Li Ziyi, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Zhuhai, Guangdong, China; and J. Wei, PhD, B. Xinghua, and Y. Q. Sun

Handout (2.4 MB)

The Role of Precipitation and Convective Features on Tropical Cyclone Intensification Derived from 16-yr TRMM Observations

Xinxi Wang, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. Jiang and O. F. Guzman

Manuscript (86.1 kB)

Handout (966.2 kB) Handout (965.8 kB)

Examining the Rainfall Asymmetries during the Landfalling Process of Tropical Cyclones Using 20-Year NASA IMERG Satellite Data

Oscar Fernando Guzman Rey, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

V10

Improving the Anticipation of Potential Tornado Intensity Across Different Time Scales

Michael Sessa, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and R. J. Trapp

Handout (249.3 kB)

V11

Hyperspectral IR Data Inversion from IASI and CrIS over the Arctic: Assimilating Retrievals in Clear Sky and Cloudy Conditions in Numerical Weather Models

V12

Extended Range Predictability of Severe Convective Storm Environments in Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12 Reforecasts

Andrew Berrington, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), Norman, OK; and K. A. Hoogewind and A. J. Clark

Handout (3.2 MB)

V14

Jua Vilhelm: A Novel End-to-End AI System for Global Weather Prediction

Marvin Vincent Gabler, Jua.ai AG, Pfäffikon, Switzerland; and J. Wuilloud, H. Taheri Shahraiyni, D. Neupert, A. Grigoryev, R. Almeida, G. Martin Hernandez, J. D. Daubinet, N. Ekhtiari, R. J. Song, P. Dudbridge, and E. Tarakci

Handout (8.5 MB)

V15

The Effect of Surface Roughness on Storm-Relative Helicity

Timothy A. Coleman, Severe Weather Institute - Radar and Lightning Laboratories, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

V16

Comparison of Arctic Cyclones in CESM2 Large Ensemble and ERA5

Madeline Clark Frank, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

V17

Implementation of Organized Convection Parameterization in the Met Office Unified Model

Zhixiao Zhang, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom; and M. Muetzelfeldt, H. Christensen, T. Woollings, R. Plant, A. Stirling, M. Whitall, and M. Moncrieff

V18

RaXPol Doppler-Radar Observations of Mesoscale Structures in Winter Storms in the Northeastern U. S. During IMPACTS 2022 and 2023

Howard B. Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Schvartzman, S. Emmerson, H. W. Hsu, G. Heymsfield, B. L. Cheong, T. Y. Yu, D. Sexton, and D. Feland

Handout (1.3 MB)

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Queer Gatherings (QG) @ Madison

Location: Fair Trade Coffee House

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

AM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

10:15 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

NOAA Testbeds & Proving Grounds: Who We Are and How to Engage

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Cochairs: Louisa Bogar Nance; Stephanie J. Avey; Curtis R. Alexander

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Session 2

Gravity Waves and Turbulence

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Chair: Leah D. Grant, Colorado State University

11:15 AM

2.1

Spatiotemporal Variation and Characteristics of Gravity Waves in China Revealed by High-Resolution Radiosonde Network

Yuhan Luo, Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Zhuhai, Guangdong, China; and Y. Du

11:30 AM

2.2

Gravity Waves Associated with Frontal Rainfall as a Preconditioning Mechanism for Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall in South China

Hongpei Yang, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Zhuhai, 44, China; and Y. Du and Z. Chen

11:45 AM

2.3

Global Distributions of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes Resolved By the 9-Km ECMWF Experiments

Junhong Wei, PhD, Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Zhuhai, Guangdong, China; and F. Zhang, J. H. Richter, M. J. Alexander, and Y. Q. Sun

Handout (26.1 MB)

12:00 PM

2.4

Shear-Driven Turbulent Eddies within Frontal Systems Approaching Steep Terrain and the Impact on Precipitation

Na Zhou, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and A. R. Naeger

12:15 PM

2.5

Spatial Patterns of Turbulence Near Thunderstorms

Stacey M. Hitchcock, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Session 2

Meso to Subseasonal Scale Meteorological Phenomena II

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Victor A. Gensini, PhD, CCM, CIMMS; Alexandra Anderson-Frey

11:15 AM

2.1

Climatology and Typologies of Mesoscale Windstorms Associated with High-Intensity Pressure Fall Phenomena

Anton Seimon, Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY; and J. H. Ruppert Jr. and L. F. Bosart

11:30 AM

2.2

An Investigation of Easterly Wind Lake-Effect and Lake-Enhanced Precipitation Events over the Western Lake Superior Region

Nicholas D. Metz, Hobart & William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and J. D. Sandstrom, J. M. Cordeira, and E. G. Hoffman

11:45 AM

2.3

Serial Clustering of Atmospheric Rivers: Climatology, Relevance for Precipitation, and Synoptic–Dynamic Characteristics

Benjamin J. Moore, NOAA, Boulder, CO

12:00 PM

2.4

Winter Extreme Precipitation Regimes (EPRs) in Eastern North America: Teleconnections, Rossby Wave Characteristics, and Case Study

Yeechian Low, McGill Univ., Montreal, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum

12:15 PM

2.5

Analysis of Amplified Northern Hemisphere Persistent Flow Regimes

Tyler C. Leicht, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

Session 2

Physics Parameterizations across Scales for Weather and Climate Modeling II

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Louisa Bogar Nance; Fanglin Yang, NOAA/NCEP/EMC

11:15 AM

2.1

Fostering Vibrant Development of Physical Parameterizations via the CCPP

Ligia Bernardet, NOAA Global Systems Laboratory and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. Firl, D. J. Swales, M. J. Kavulich Jr., M. Zhang, J. Dudhia, S. Trahan, and L. Xue, PhD

Handout (2.1 MB)

11:30 AM

2.2

Cloud and Precipitation Representation in the Marine Boundary Layer Using the Common Community Physics Packaged (CCPP) Single Column Model (SCM)

Tracy J. Hertneky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Li, M. Zhang, J. Dudhia, and L. Xue, PhD

11:45 AM

2.3

Impact of Cumulus Convection Parameterization on 2022 Hurricane IAN and Earl Forecasts in the NOAA Global Forecast System

Qingfu Liu, EMC, College Park, MD; NOAA, College Park, MD; and F. Yang

12:00 PM

2.4

Demonstration of Hierarchical System Development Using Common Community Physics Package and Its Companion Single-Column Model to Inform Physics Development: An Example from An ARM SGP Case on June 11 2016

Weiwei Li, NCAR/RAL and Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), Boulder, CO; and D. F. D'Amico, L. Bernardet, L. Xue, PhD, J. Dudhia, H. Shin, G. Firl, J. Henderson, M. A. Harrold, L. B. Nance, and M. B. Ek

2.5

Evaluation of the Met Office Unified Model/JULES third Regional Atmosphere and Land configuration (RAL3)

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Session 3

Model Development and Application: PBL and Land-Surface Physics

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Fanglin Yang, NOAA/NCEP/EMC; Jason M. English

2:00 PM

3.1

Updates to the MYNN-EDMF PBL Scheme to Improve Operational Forecasting Applications

Joseph B. Olson, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and W. M. Angevine, D. D. Turner, X. Sun, T. W. Juliano, and F. S. Puhales

2:15 PM

3.2

Exploring the Dependence of MYNN PBL Scheme on Dynamic Cores (ARW and FV3) in Simulating Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

Xia Sun, CIRES/NOAA GSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Olson, D. D. Turner, and W. M. Angevine

2:30 PM

3.3

Improved Predictability of Lake-Effect Snowfall in the UFS Short-Range Weather Application Through the Use of Modeled Lake Surface Conditions

David M. Wright, NOAA, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski, A. Fujisaki-Manome, B. Mroczka, D. Titze, G. Mann, and E. J. Anderson

2:45 PM

3.4

Evaluation of a New Land Surface Package in the Canadian Numerical Weather Prediction System Using Scree-Level Analyses

Nasim Alavi, EC, Dorval, Canada; and S. Bélair, M. Abrahamowicz, M. Carrera, B. Bilodeau, D. Simjanovski, D. Charpentier, and B. Badawy

3:00 PM

3.5

Performances of Land Surface Models in Sharp Vegetation Contrast Areas between Desert and Irrigation Oasis

Xuelei Wang, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking Univ., Beijing, Beijing, China; Peking Univ., Beijing, Beijing, China

3:15 PM

3.6

A Local Method for Imposing Surface Drag Conditions on Deformed Terrain Boundaries

Yi Li, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and C. C. Epifanio

Session 3

Organized Moist Convection I

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Cochairs: Erik R. Nielsen; Hongpei Yang

2:00 PM

3.1

AMS STAC Mesoscale Processes Awardee Keynote Talk: The Role of Mesoscale Environmental Variability in Determining Supercell Evolution

Casey Davenport, PhD, The Univ. of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC

2:30 PM

3.2

How is Convection Initiation Sensitive to Hodograph Characteristics?

Luke Justin LeBel, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and P. M. Markowski

2:45 PM

3.3

Disparate Controls of Convective Cell Deepening and Intensification Based on Cell Width

Adam Varble, PhD, PNNL, Richland, WA; and Z. Feng, J. Marquis, Z. Zhang, and J. Hardin

3:00 PM

3.4

Characteristics and Development of Streamwise Vorticity Currents in Simulated Supercells with Varying Midlevel Shear Vector Orientations

Kevin Thomas Gray, Univ. of Illinois Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and J. W. Frame

3:15 PM

3.5

The Influence of Midlevel Shear and Horizontal Rotors on Supercell Updraft Dynamics

Andrew James Muehr, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Norman, OK; and J. H. Ruppert Jr., M. Flournoy, and J. M. Peters

Winter Storms: Advances in Forecasting I (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction)

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Sarah Perfater, NWS; Jason M. Cordeira

2:00 PM

J3.1

Innovations in Winter Storm Forecasting and Decision Support Services

David R. Novak, NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and S. Perfater

2:15 PM

J3.2

3D Characteristics of Snow Bands and Implications for Surface Snowfall in Northeast Winter Storms

Laura M Tomkins, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter and M. A. Miller

2:30 PM

J3.3

The Once-in-a-Generation Buffalo Blizzard and Lake Effect Event of December 23-26 2022

David A Zaff, NWS, Buffalo, NY

2:45 PM

J3.4

Regime-Dependent Predictability of Cold Season Precipitation Events in the St. Lawrence River Valley

Andrew C. Winters, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and N. P. Bassill, J. R. Gyakum, and J. R. Minder

3:00 PM

J3.5

Improving Cool-Season Snowfall Forecasts from Operational Modeling Systems over the Western Continental United States

Peter Veals, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh, M. Wessler, and M. D. Pletcher

3:15 PM

J3.6

Validation of Cool-Season Precipitation Forecasts at a High-Elevation Site in Utah's Little Cottonwood Canyon

Michael David Pletcher, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and P. Veals, M. Wessler, D. Church, K. J. Harnos, J. Correia Jr., R. Chase, and J. Steenburgh

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

AMS Student Engagement Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Session 4

Forecasting Tools and Techniques Across Weather Scales: Precipitation and Flooding

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Nicholas D. Metz; Jonathan J. Rutz, NWS

4:15 PM

4.1

Evaluation of Freezing Rain Local Storm Reports as a Verification Source

Adam David Werkema, Cooperative Institue for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO) at NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves and D. D. Tripp

4:30 PM

4.2

Utilizing Climatologies to Aid in the Issuance of the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook

Erica Bower, NOAA/NWS/WPC, College Park, MD; and J. A. Nelson Jr., M. Klein, M. Chenard, and M. J. Erickson

4:45 PM

4.3

Comparison of Hybrid 4DEnVar and 3DEnVar for the Prediction of Atmospheric Rivers

Minghua Zheng, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and B. Cornuelle, A. C. Subramanian, L. Delle Monache, and M. M. Ralph

5:00 PM

4.4

Ensemble Selection Strategies to Improve Precipitation Forecasts

Meng-Tze Lee, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. K. Yau, D. Jacques, F. Fabry, and I. zawadzki

5:15 PM

4.5

Use of the National Water Model Retrospective Analysis to Provide Context for Real-time Flood Forecasts Issued by the National Weather Service

Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan Univ., Mt. Pleasant, MI; and T. Turnage and A. Dixon

Session 4

Improvements in Tropical Convection Forecasts

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Vijay S. Tallapragada, NWS; Kimberly Wood, Mississippi State University

4:15 PM

4.1

Improving the Representation of Tropical Variability and Its Large-Scale Teleconnections in Noaa's Unified Forecast System

Lisa Bengtsson, NOAA/OAR/PSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias and M. Gehne

4:30 PM

4.2

The Use of Regional Data Assimilation to Improve Numerical Simulations of Diurnal Characteristics of Precipitation during an Active Madden-Julian Oscillation Event over the Maritime Continent

Zhaoxia Pu, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Cui

4:45 PM

4.3

GFS 3km Cloud Resolving Simulations for Hurricane Forecasts

Jiayi Peng, AXIOM at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Moorthi, F. Yang, and J. J. Levit

5:00 PM

4.4

Evaluation of Unified Forecast System Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

Kathryn M. Newman, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Nelson, E. Grell, L. Pan, M. K. Biswas, and W. Li

5:15 PM

4.5

Impacts of Environmental Wind Shear Effect Parameterization and TKE-dependent Entrainment Enhancement in the Convective Updrafts on Hurricane Intensity and Track Forecasts

Jongil Han, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Peng, W. Li, W. Wang, Z. Zhang, and F. Yang

Predictability Involving Multi-Scale Processes and Interactions

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Cochairs: Thomas Galarneau; Alexander Lojko

4:15 PM

JointJ4.1

Multi-Scale Interaction and Predictability of the Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Masashi Minamide, Univ. of Tokyo / JPL, Tokyo, Japan; and D. J. Posselt, PhD

4:30 PM

JointJ4.2

Error-Growth Dynamics in Idealized Midlatitude Cyclones with Different Moist Baroclinic Life Cycles

Daniel James Lloveras, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. R. Durran and J. D. Doyle

Handout (18.5 MB)

4:45 PM

JointJ4.3

An Object-Based Approach to Atmospheric Predictability

Falko Judt, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO

5:00 PM

JointJ4.4

An Analysis of the Predictability of Warm-Season Progressive Derechos Using Synoptic-Scale Composites and Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

Bruno Ribeiro, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and S. J. Weiss

5:15 PM

JointJ4.5

Investigating the Model Representation of Cloud Tops: Toward a Better Understanding of Overshoot Dynamics

Devin Bissell, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and G. L. Mullendore and C. J. Nowotarski

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Welcome Reception

Location: Rooftop Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Tuesday, 18 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Session 5

Extratropical Cyclones and Winter Storms

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Cochairs: Kristen L. Corbosiero, SUNY; Luke R. Allen, North Carolina State University

8:30 AM

5.1

Coastal and Orographic Influences on Lake-Effect Systems:Results from Recent Observational and Modeling Studies

Jim Steenburgh, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and P. Veals, T. M. Gowan, L. Campbell, J. R. Minder, D. J. McKinney, S. Nakai, and S. Yamaguchi

8:45 AM

5.2

The Dynamics and Predictability of a Mesoscale Windstorm and Wildfire Outbreak in the Central Great Plains on 15 December 2021

Thomas Galarneau, NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. R. R. Spencer

9:00 AM

5.3

Microscale Updrafts Within the U.S. Northeast Coastal Snowstorms Using High-Resolution Cloud Radar Measurements

Mariko Oue, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, S. E. Yuter, P. Kollias, P. Yeh, and L. M. Tomkins

9:15 AM

5.4

Enhanced Layers of Spectrum Width within Northeast U.S. Coastal Storms and Their Relationship with Precipitation Structures

Erin Leghart, Stony Brook Univ., Farmingdale, NY; and B. A. Colle, M. Oue, E. Luke, and P. Kollias

9:30 AM

5.5

The Development of Snow Multi-Bands in High-Resolution Idealized Baroclinic Wave Simulations

Nicholas M. Leonardo, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, MA; and B. A. Colle

Session 5

Forecasting Tools and Techniques across Weather Scales: Probabilities and Bias

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Stephanie J. Avey; Daniel James Lloveras

8:30 AM

5.1

Forecast Products Based on the 200-Member West-WRF Ensemble: A CW3E and NWS Western Region Collaborative Effort

Jonathan J. Rutz, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and B. Kawzenuk, L. Delle Monache, D. F. Steinhoff, M. Simpson, J. F. Kalansky, M. E. Jeglum, and J. Suk

Handout (12.6 MB)

8:45 AM

5.2

Dynamic Ensemble-Based Scenarios for IDSS (DESI): A New Decision Support Tool for Fast and Meaningful Interrogation of Ensemble-Based Numerical Weather Data

Travis Wilson, GSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Q. Stewart, D. D. Nietfeld, R. Howlett, C. Kahler, J. T. Radford, K. J. Harnos, K. Anderson, and C. Vaughn

9:00 AM

5.3

An Introduction to the "Ken's 10" NWS Initiative: Probabilistic Impact-based Decision Support Services

Kathryn K. Gilbert, NWS, College Park, MD; and R. Bandy, G. Cooper, PhD, S. B. Smith, J. S. Waldstreicher, A. Boxell, A. Foster, J. J. Brost, J. Fox, M. E. Jeglum, J. S. Lee, D. E. Levin, G. Mann, M. J. Moreland, S. Perfater, K. Scharfenberg, B. Smith, D. C. Strom, and D. R. Vallee

9:15 AM

5.4

Assessing Training and Competency Requirements in the Probabilistic Forecasting Era

Kevin Scharfenberg, NWS, Boulder, CO; and B. Smith, J. K. Jordan, B. Motta, B. Rozumalski, and A. Boxell

9:30 AM

5.5

The Use of METplus to Inform Forecasters of Model Biases and Forecast Consistencies for Phenomena at Different Scales

Tara L. Jensen, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and T. J. Hertneky, M. R. Green, M. J. Erickson, B. Veenhuis, J. Opatz, J. Hicks, and C. P. Kalb

Session 5

Model Development and Application: Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) Development and Verification

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Jacob R. Carley; Christina P. Kalb, NCAR

8:30 AM

5.1

Towards the Development of Sub-km Scale Warn-on-Forecast System at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory

Nusrat Yussouf, Cooperative Institute for Severe & High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), Norman, OK; and Y. Wang, D. Dowell, C. A. Kerr, and D. R. Stratman

8:45 AM

5.2

Object-Based Verification to Inform Design and Real-Time Use of the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS)

Patrick S. Skinner, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Norman, OK; and J. E. Guerra, C. A. Kerr, B. C. Matilla, M. L. Flora, A. J. Clark, N. Carpenter, and A. E. Reinhart

9:00 AM

5.3

Storm Object Size Analysis in a 1-km Warn-on-Forecast System Prototype

Christopher A. Kerr, CIWRO/NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. S. Skinner, D. R. Stratman, B. C. Matilla, Y. Wang, and N. Yussouf

9:15 AM

5.4

Verification of Quasi-Linear Convective Systems Predicted by the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS)

Kelsey C. Britt, CIWRO, Norman, OK; and P. Skinner, P. Heinselman, C. K. Potvin, M. L. Flora, B. C. Matilla, K. H. Knopfmeier, and A. E. Reinhart

9:30 AM

5.5

Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Warn-on-Forecast System

Thomas Galarneau, NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. S. Skinner, M. L. Flora, and K. C. Britt

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Poster Viewing and Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Tuesday Poster Session

Location: Hall of Ideas (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Mesoscale Convective System Parameterization for Global Climate Models

Mitchell William Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Richter and C. C. Chen

Utilization of Novel Observational Platforms and Numerical Weather Prediction Tools to Facilitate Prediction, Detection, and Warning Strategies for Meteotsunami Events within the Laurentian Great Lakes

Bryan Mroczka, NOAA, Ann Arbor, MI

Intraseasonal Variability of Recurving EPAC Tropical Cyclones

Alexander Kyle Mitchell, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

Causes of Differences in Depiction of Convective Lines in 1-km and 3-km CM1 Simulations

Samuel Luthi, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA

The Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information Project (AQPI)

Jonathan J. Rutz, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and D. Roberts, V. Chandra, R. Cifelli, J. F. Kalansky, and J. Jasperse

Handout (2.1 MB)

The Total Water Uniform PDF in Ice Nucleation

Ruiyu Sun, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Ellicott City, MD; IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Ellicott City, MD; and F. Yang

Impacts of Moisture on the Organizational Modes of Mesoscale Convective Systems Associated with Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall

Zhiyong Meng, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and S. Li

The Marshall Fire of 30 December 2021: The Operational Utility of HRRR Forecasts for a Wildfire Resulting from a Perfect Storm of Climate, Mesoscale and Urban/Open Space Factor

Edward J. Szoke, CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, E. P. James, P. T. Schlatter, and J. M. Brown

Linear Mountain Waves Past a Mountain Range with Concavity and Convexity

Kazuo Saito, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Univ. of Tokyo, kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan

Handout (1.7 MB)

A Multi-Scale Study of the 23 October 2022 Southern England QLCS

Kenneth L. Pryor, PhD, NESDIS, College Park, MD; and D. Smart, D. Flack, and M. Clark

Manuscript (6.4 MB)

Handout (23.9 MB) Handout (4.0 MB)

The Vertical and Horizontal Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems on a Temporal Scale

Michell Tinoco-Morales, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

Handout (2.0 MB)

The Role of North American Convective Storms on Jet Stream Dynamics: A Negative Potential Vorticity Perspective

Alexander Lojko, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and A. C. Winters, C. Jablonowski, and A. E. Payne

Handout (2.6 MB)

Changes in Seasonal Occurrence and Interannual Variability of Tornado Outbreaks

Matthew Graber, Univ. of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL; and R. J. Trapp and Z. Wang

Numerical Simulations of Three Downslope Windstorm Cases in Korea under the Different Synoptic-Scale Conditions

Yewon Shin, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, South korea; and J. H. Kim

Cold-Season Embedded Orographic Convection and Its Impact on Precipitation: An Observational and Modeling Case Study

Bart nmn Geerts, Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY

Identification of Mesovortexgenesis Mechanisms in QLCSs using PERiLS Radar Data

Sean Donald Melanson, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker, K. A. Kosiba, S. W. Nesbitt, R. J. Trapp, and J. Wurman

Handout (1.7 MB)

Evaluating the CAPE-Shear Parameter Space of Southeastern US QLCS Environments

Zachary Andrew Chalmers, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker, K. A. Kosiba, S. W. Nesbitt, R. J. Trapp, and J. Wurman

Dynamics of Orographic and Thermal Forcing on the Environment Conducive to the Formation of the Tubbs Fire (2017)

Jackson Tyler Wiles, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and M. L. Kaplan and Y. L. Lin

Examining the Sensitivity of Simulated Midlatitude and Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems to Horizontal Grid Spacing

Manda B. Chasteen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. F. Prein, D. Wang, and M. Ge

Characteristics of Observed Surface Pressure Waves (Gravity Waves) in the Contexts of Storm Structure and Reflectivity Features

Luke Robert Allen, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter, M. A. Miller, and L. M. Tomkins

Size Spectra and Controls on Mesoscale Convective Systems: Evidence from East Atlantic NASA CPEX-CV Program

Edward J. Zipser, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. Rajagopal, A. K. Rowe, N. Sakaeda, and R. Rios-Berrios

C³IEL, The Cluster for Cloud Evolution Climate and Lightning Mission to Study Convective Clouds at High Spatial And Temporal Resolution

Céline Cornet, Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique, CNRS/Université de Lille, Villeneuve d'Ascq, 59, France; and D. Rosenfeld, E. Defer, A. Deschamps, C. Price, and D. Ricard

Structures of Cold Pools from PERiLS 2022 & 2023

Miranda Kaylene Silcott, North Carolina State Univ., Garner, NC; North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker, K. A. Kosiba, S. W. Nesbitt, R. J. Trapp, and J. Wurman

Environmental Conditions Controlling the Morphology of Shallow Orographic Convection

Jialin Liu, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. J. Kirshbaum

Handout (873.1 kB)

Numerical Simulations of Near-Cloud Turbulence in the Upper-Level Outflows of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Juheon Lee, Seoul National Univ., Seoul , 41, South korea; and J. H. Kim

MCS:PRIME - Environmental Precursors to Mesoscale Convective Systems

Mark Robert Muetzelfeldt, Univ. of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and R. S. Plant, Z. Zhang, H. Christensen, and T. Woollings

Dynamical Processes Perturbing Right-Moving Supercell Storm Motions

Nicholas Goldacker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC

Lifetimes of Overshooting Convective Events Using High-Frequency Gridded Radar Composites

Daniel Jellis, Texas A&M Univ., Bryan, TX; and K. Bowman and A. D. Rapp

Modeling Study of Serve Downslope Winds during the Grassland Fire of Marshall, Colorado

Nicholas Golden, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and J. Zhang

Evaluation of the Evolution of Severe Storm Environments through Use of the Lapse Rate Tendency Equation

Alan Garcia Rosales, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and J. T. Allen

Observations of Convectively Generated Gravity Waves within the Stratiform Region of Mesoscale Convective Systems

Hannah Vagasky, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA; and R. D. Adams-Selin, C. Evans, and D. V. Blount

Handout (3.7 MB)

Entrainment Makes Pollution More Likely to Weaken Deep Convective Updrafts Than Invigorate Them

John M Peters, Penn State Univ., State College, PA; and Z. Lebo, D. R. Chavas, and C. Y. Su

Vertically-Pointing Radar Observations of Convective Updrafts and Downdrafts Associated with Cool-Season QLCSs over Northern Alabama

Melissa Gonzalez-Fuentes, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL

Handout (5.6 MB)

An Empirical Examination of the Environmental Factors That Regulated Thunderstorm Longevity on 22 May 2019 in Oklahoma

Kyle Pittman, Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

The Rain-Induced Boundary Layer Transition in Quasi-Linear Convective Systems

Matthew Starke, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

On the Detection of Averaged Intensity for Wave Patterns/Tropical Cyclones Under Different ISO Propagation Routes over the East Asian Monsoon Region

Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Linking Stratospheric Polar Vortex Geometries with S2S Forecasting

Elena Fernandez, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. A. L. Lang

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Session 6

Forecasting Tools and Techniques Across Weather Scales: Severe/Fire

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Stephanie J. Avey; Jack Lind, CIRA/AWC

11:15 AM

6.1

Elevated Convection: Radar Signatures and Observations Associated with Gravity Wave-Breaking Damaging Winds

Brett Borchardt, NOAA/NWS, Romeoville, IL; and K. Sherburn and R. S. Schumacher

11:30 AM

6.2

Extension of WoFs-Smoke to Ingest GOES-R Fire Radiative Power Retrievals

Thomas A. Jones, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High Impact Weather Research and Operations, Norman, OK; and R. Ahmadov and E. P. James

11:45 AM

6.3

A High-Impact Weather Identification and Visualization Product for the Operational and Client Service Meteorologists in Canada

Quanzhen Geng, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. Mo and D. Brown

12:00 PM

6.4

An Hourly Wildfire Potential Index for Predicting Short-Range Fire Activity Based on Rapidly-Updating Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts

Eric P. James, GSD, Boulder, CO; and R. Ahmadov, J. Romero-Alvarez, G. A. Grell, and I. A. Csiszar

12:15 PM

6.5

Conditional Intensity Estimation of Tornadoes using Environmental Parameters

Israel L. Jirak, SPC, Norman, OK; and J. Vancil, J. Picca, R. S. Schneider, P. T. Marsh, and W. Bunting

Session 6

Model Development and Application: Data Assimilation

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Shun Liu, NCEP; Will Mayfield, NCAR/RAL

11:15 AM

6.1

Recent Progress and Future Plans for NCEP Global Data Assimilation

Daryl T. Kleist, EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, A. Collard, E. Liu, S. Liu, C. R. Martin, C. Thomas, R. Treadon, and G. Vernieres

11:30 AM

6.2

Development and Evaluation of a JEDI-based Prototype Global Data Assimilation System at NCEP

Cory R Martin, PhD, NCEP, College Park, MD; and A. Collard, D. T. Kleist, H. E. Liu, C. A. Thomas, R. Treadon, and G. Vernieres

11:45 AM

6.3

Experiments with a Variable-Resolution Global Data Assimilation System with ~3-km Cell Spacing over North America

Craig Schwartz, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and J. Bresch, B. J. Jung, J. Guerrette, J. Ban, Y. G. Yu, Z. Liu, and C. Snyder

12:00 PM

6.4

Progression of Data Assimilation for IBM GRAF: Towards a JEDI-Driven System

James P. Cipriani, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Gilbertsville, PA; and J. Wong and B. A. Wilt

12:15 PM

6.5

Development of the CMA-BJv2.0 Hourly Rapid Updated Catch-up Cycling Assimilation and Forecast System

Min Chen, Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing, China

Session 6

Orographic Flows and Rainfall

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Cochairs: Casey Davenport, PhD; Logan Twohey

11:15 AM

6.1

The Isotopic Composition of Rainfall on a Subtropical Mountainous Island

Giuseppe Torri, Univ. of Hawai`i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI; and A. D. Nugent, B. N. Popp, and M. Tang

11:30 AM

6.2

Ensemble Modelling of Moist Convection in Complex Terrain, a Case Study from the CACTI Field Campaign

Andres Yamil Lopez, McGill, Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. J. Kirshbaum

6.3

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Rainfall over Complex Terrain in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin during the Warm Seasons of 2016-2020

11:45 AM

Q&A / Discussion

12:00 PM

6.4

Vertical Motions in Orographic Cloud Systems over the Payette River Basin: Controls on Liquid Water Content, Drop Number Concentrations, and Drop Size Distributions

Troy Justin Zaremba, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and R. M. Rauber, B. N. Geerts, J. R. French, S. A. Tessendorf, L. Xue, PhD, K. Friedrich, C. Weeks, R. M. Rasmussen, M. L. Kunkel, and D. Blestrud

12:15 PM

6.5

Orographic Modifications to Heavy Mei-Yu Rainfall in Taiwan

Ian Cornejo, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. Rowe, K. L. Rasmussen, Ph.D., and Y. Zhang, PhD

12:30 PM

Q&A / Discussion

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Session 7

Mesoscale Convective Systems II

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Cochairs: Christopher J. Nowotarski, Texas A&M University; Andrew James Muehr

2:00 PM

7.1

Investigate the Forcing Mechanisms Leading to the Formation of the African Easterly Waves Preceding the Genesis of Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean

S. M. SHAJEDUL KARIM, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and J. T. Wiles and Y. L. Lin

Manuscript (4.4 MB)

2:15 PM

7.2

A Preliminary Analysis of Low-Frequency Gravity Wave, Line-End Vortex, and Environmental Flow Contributions to Rear-to-Front Flow in Observed MCSs

Dillon V. Blount, Univ. of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans, R. D. Adams-Selin, and H. Vagasky

2:30 PM

7.3

General Features of MCSs with the Organization of Multiple Parallel Rain Bands in China

Peiyu Wang, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking Univ., Beijing, China., Beijing, China

2:45 PM

7.4

Impacts of Low-Level Shear Orientation and Magnitude on Structure and Mesovortex Production in Idealized Squall Lines

Matthew C. Brown, NSSL, Norman, OK; and G. R. Marion and M. C. Coniglio

3:00 PM

7.5

An Analytical Model Connecting Tropical MCS Convective Cores to Stratiform Region Growth Rates

Gregory S. Elsaesser, NASA GISS and Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and R. Roca, T. Fiolleau, A. Del Genio, J. Wu, S. Giangrande, and A. F. Prein

3:15 PM

7.6

Near-Storm Environments of Tropical Oceanic Convection As Observed from Recent NASA Airborne Campaigns

Angela Rowe, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and B. D. Rodenkirch and E. J. Zipser

Session 7

Model Development and Application: RRFS Development and Planning

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Logan C. Dawson; Jonathan Poterjoy, NCAR

2:00 PM

7.1

Status on the Development of the First Version of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System

Jacob R. Carley, NOAA, 5830 Univ. Research Court,, MD; and C. R. Alexander and M. E. Pyle

2:15 PM

7.2

Testing and Development of the Data Assimilation System for Rapid Refresh Forecast System

Shun Liu, EMC, College Park, MD; NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Hu, B. Blake, T. lei, X. Zhang, S. Yokota, J. Dong, C. R. Martin, D. Dowell, C. Zhou, T. T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, M. E. Pyle, J. R. Carley, and D. T. Kleist

2:30 PM

7.3

Ensemble-Based Tangent Linear Model to Extend Assimilation Window in the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS)

Sho Yokota, EMC, College Park, MD; JMA, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and J. R. Carley, S. Liu, C. Thomas, and D. T. Kleist

2:45 PM

7.4

NOAA Regional Models Consolidation and Retirement Plan: Rapid Refresh Forecast System

Youngsun Jung, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. R. Carley, V. S. Tallapragada, K. Garrett, J. J. Levit, M. E. Pyle, A. J. Poyer, and L. Wolf

3:00 PM

7.5

The Rapid Refresh Forecast System: Looking Beyond the First Operational Version

Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Carley and M. E. Pyle

3:15 PM

7.6

Assessment of Convective-scale Attributes of the FV3 Dycore using Idealized Simulations

Louis J. Wicker, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK

Winter Storms: Advances in Forecasting II (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction)

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Andrew C. Winters; Peter Veals

2:00 PM

JointJ7.1

High-impact Observations for Enhancing Great Lakes Snowfall Forecasting

Claire Pettersen, University of Michigan, MADISON, WI; and S. W. Nesbitt, M. S. Kulie, J. Lenters, J. R. Richter, and M. R. Peters

2:15 PM

JointJ7.2

Challenges with Winter Weather Products in the National Weather Service National Blend of Models

Adam D. Schnapp, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack, R. James, S. Perfater, and G. Manikin

2:30 PM

JointJ7.3

Combining Radar and NWP to Build a Snow Rate AI Algorithm

Andrew A. Rosenow, PhD, CIWRO - Cooperative Institute for Severe and High Impact Weather Research and Operations, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves

2:45 PM

JointJ7.4

Unifying and Simplifying Winter Precipitation Accumulations in NCEP Models

Geoffrey Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. J. Levit, H. Y. Chuang, E. A. Aligo, M. J. Barlage, F. Yang, and J. Meng

3:00 PM

JointJ7.5

Simulating the Transition From Freezing Rain to Ice Pellets: The Role of Secondary Ice Production During WINTRE-MIX IOP4

Bin Han, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. R. Minder

3:15 PM

JointJ7.6

P-type Processes and Predictability: A Case Study from the Winter Precipitation Type Research Multiscale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX)

Justin R Minder, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and N. P. Bassill, F. Fabry, J. R. French, K. Friedrich, I. Gultepe, J. R. Gyakum, K. A. Kosiba, M. Lachapelle, D. Michelson, L. Nichman, C. Nguyen, J. M. Thériault, A. C. Winters, M. Wolde, and J. Wurman

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Session 8

Advances Facilitated By New Observational Platforms and Capabilities

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Chair: Clark Evans, UW-Milwaukee

CoChair: Matthew R. Beitscher, MS, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center

4:15 PM

8.1

MAPNet (Mobile Atmospheric Profiling Network): Updates and Research Applications

Kevin Knupp, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and L. D. Carey, R. A. Wade, P. Pangle, and D. Phillips

4:30 PM

8.2

Optimizing Numerical Weather Prediction Utility of the Maryland Mesonet with Observing System Simulation Experiments

Joshua Eric McCurry, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, Gaithersburg, MD; and J. Poterjoy, M. J. Molina, and A. Ruiz-Barradas

4:45 PM

8.3

Using WSR-88D Observations to Detect Convective Boundary Layer Depth

David J. Stensrud, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. L. Comer, B. Stouffer, M. Kumjian, and Y. Zhang, PhD

5:00 PM

8.4

A Targeted Sounding and LiDAR Retrieved Wind Analysis of the 26 February 2023 Norman, OK Tornado

Madeline Diedrichsen, CIWRO, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio, E. Rasmussen, and S. M. Waugh

8.5

An Explicit Microphysical and Electrical Charging Model to Study the Effects of Changing Aerosol Composition on the Electric Field and Lightning Distribution

Session 8

Model Development and Application: Global Model Development and Updates

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Fanglin Yang, NOAA/NCEP/EMC; Jonathan Poterjoy, NCAR

4:15 PM

8.1

The Quasi-Elastic Dynamical Core of the Global Environmental Multiscale Model with a Height-Based Terrain-Following Vertical Coordinate

Syed Zahid Husain, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada, QC, Canada; and A. Qaddouri, J. F. Cossette, and C. Girard

4:30 PM

8.2

Fixing Inconsistencies between GFS Snow Accumulations and Precipitation Type

Alicia M. Bentley, ; and G. S. Manikin, H. Wei, E. A. Aligo, M. J. Barlage, and F. Yang

4:45 PM

8.3

Sensitivity of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cirrus Prediction in GRAPES Global Forecast System

Jiong Chen, Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA, Beijing, China

5:00 PM

8.4

Development of a Global-nested Severe Weather Forecast Model for CONUS (C-SHiELD)

Kai-Yuan Cheng, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and L. M. Harris, L. Zhou, A. Kaltenbaugh, and M. Morin

5:15 PM

8.5

Towards a Python-Based Performance-Portable Finite-Volume Dynamical Core for Numerical Weather Prediction

Stefano Ubbiali, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; and C. Kühnlein, T. Ehrengruber, N. Krieger, L. Papritz, and H. Wernli

Session 8

Organized Moist Convection II

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

CoChair: Adam L. Houston, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

4:15 PM

8.1

A Theory for the Role of Vertical Wind Shear in Deep Convection Initiation

John M Peters, Penn State Univ., State College, PA

4:30 PM

8.2

The Simulated Organization of Deep Convection during MJO

Mingyue Tang, Univ. of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, HONOLULU, HI; and G. Torri

4:45 PM

8.3

Low-Level Jet Influences on the Warm Season Convective Environment in Central Argentina

Clayton Robert Stanley Sasaki, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. K. Rowe and L. McMurdie

5:00 PM

8.4

Enhancing our Understanding of Tropical Convective Processes through the INCUS Mission

Susan C. Van Den Heever, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and Z. S. Haddad, J. Bukowski, R. Chase, B. Dolan, S. W. Freeman, L. D. Grant, P. Kollias, G. Leung, Z. J. Luo, P. J. Marinescu, M. G. Morris, D. J. Posselt, PhD, K. L. Rasmussen, S. Prasanth, R. Schulte, I. Singh, G. L. Stephens, R. L. Storer, O. Sy, H. Takahashi, S. Tanelli, and Z. Xu

5:15 PM

8.5

Synoptic and Mesoscale Environment Variability of US Large Hail Events

John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., MOUNT PLEASANT, MI; and C. J. Nixon and K. J. Gillett

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Coriolis EDIB Reception

Location: Rooftop Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Wednesday, 19 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Session 9

Other Topics on Numerical Weather Prediction: Data Assimilation Development

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Cory R Martin, PhD, NOAA NWS NCEP EMC; Benjamin C. Trabing, CIRA

8:30 AM

9.1

Multiscale Data Assimilation for Numerical Weather Prediction (Invited Presentation)

Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

8:45 AM

9.2

Scale-Dependent Localization and Multiscale Assimilation for NCEP Data Assimilation Systems

Daryl T. Kleist, EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Yokota, C. Thomas, J. S. Whitaker, and J. R. Carley

9:00 AM

9.3

Toward Fully Non-Parametric Data Assimilation for Numerical Weather Prediction

Jonathan Poterjoy, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD

9.4

Developing a Coupled Land-Atmosphere Data Assimilation for UFS With JEDI: Evaluation With Near-Surface Weather Forecasting

9:15 AM

9.4A

Snow Depth and New Winter Weather Diagnostics for UFS

Eric A. Aligo, SAIC, COLLEGE PARK, MD

Handout (1.7 MB)

9:30 AM

9.5

Development of Surface Data Assimilation and Forecast for Rapid Refresh Forecast System

Ming Hu, NOAA/GSL, Boulder, CO; and T. Smironova, S. Benjamin, R. Li, S. S. Weygandt, C. R. Alexander, D. D. Turner, T. T. Ladwig, S. Liu, and J. R. Carley

Predictability of Arctic Cyclones I

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

CoChair: Steven Cavallo, University of Oklahoma

8:30 AM

JointJ9.1

Sensitivity and Predictability of Mesoscale Polar Lows

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. A. Biernat

Handout (7.5 MB)

8:45 AM

JointJ9.2

Sensitivity of an August 2022 Arctic Cyclone to Sea Ice and Ocean Representation in Polar WRF

Kyle K. Ahern, SUNY, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

9:00 AM

JointJ9.3

Coupled Simulations of a Wintertime Arctic Cyclone with Significant Surface Impacts Observed During MOSAiC

Ola Persson, CIRES and NSIDC, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. B. Solomon, J. Hutchings, D. Watkins, J. Haapala, G. Svensson, and T. Stanton

9:15 AM

JointJ9.4

Comparing the Predictability of Arctic and Atlantic Basin Cyclones Using Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis of MPAS Forecasts

Peyton K. Capute, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

9:30 AM

JointJ9.5

Investigating Arctic Cyclone-Tropopause Polar Vortex Interactions with Observing System Simulation Experiments

Matthew Bray, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo

9:00 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Session 9

Other Topics on Weather Analysis and Forecasting: Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Tomer Burg; Jeffrey D. Duda

9:00 AM

9.3

Quantifying Impacts of Environmental Moisture Spatial Patterns on Tropical Cyclones Via Observational Datasets

Kimberly M. Wood, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS; and K. Berislavich, S. E. Zick, K. Addington, and C. J. Matyas

9:15 AM

9.5

Assessing Model Guidance for Hurricane Ian

Logan C. Dawson, EMC, College Park, MD; and A. M. Bentley and G. S. Manikin

9.1

Thermodynamics of Overland Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in Weakly/Non-Baroclinic Environments

9.2

Predictability of the Overland Reintensification of North Atlantic Tropical Storm Erin (2007)

9.4

Evaluation of GFDL and Thompson microphysics using the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) model

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Poster Viewing and Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Wednesday Poster Session

Location: Hall of Ideas (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

The Plan for the All-Sky Radiance Assimilation over Land in the NCEP Global Model

Azadeh Gholoubi, EMC, College Park, MD; and H. E. Liu, A. Collard, and D. T. Kleist

Physically Explainable Deep Learning for Convection Initiation Nowcasts

Da Fan, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. J. Greybush and D. J. Gagne II, Ph.D.

A Deep Learning Approach to Severe Weather Subseasonal Forecasting Over the United States

Maria M. Madsen, AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES), Norman, OK

Handout (2.6 MB)

Extended Range Machine-Learning Severe Weather Guidance Based on the Operational GEFS

Adam J. Clark, NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Hill, K. A. Hoogewind, A. Berrington, and E. D. Loken

An Evaluation of a Convolutional Neural Network for Classifying Images from In-situ Cloud Probes

Marwa Majdi, Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and D. Delene and C. Nairy

Handout (527.0 kB)

Objectively Assessing Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Organization in an Operational Convection Permitting Model

Ewan Short, Univ. of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; and T. Lane

Handout (3.3 MB)

Preliminary Evaluation of Real-Time, 8-Day, Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts over the Conterminous United States

Craig Schwartz, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Sobash, L. M. Harris, K. Y. Cheng, M. Morin, and L. Zhou

Comparing Storm Environments and Forecast Performance in the HRRR, RRFS, and the NSSL MPAS Models

Corey K. Potvin, NSSL, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, M. G. Duda, T. A. Jones, K. H. Knopfmeier, E. Mansell, L. J. Reames, W. Skamarock, Y. Wang, L. J. Wicker, and N. Yussouf

Handout (1.9 MB)

The Impact on Simulated Bow Echoes of Changing Grid Spacing from 3 km to 1 km in WRF

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ., AMES, IA; and D. J. Dodson

Validation of Offshore Winds in the ERA5 Reanalysis and HRRR Model Using Two Floating LIDARS South of Long Island, NY

Christopher Fragano, SUNY at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and J. M. Freedman

Handout (1.6 MB)

Examination of False Alarm and Missed Mesoscale Convective Systems Predicted by the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model

Sam Ritter, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and N. Sonntag and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Regime Dependence of Predictability of Springtime Medium-Range Severe Weather over CONUS within Two GEFS Reforecast Ensembles

Towards Defining the Elevated Convection Problem

Census of Valley and Mountain Profiling Radar Characteristics during Winter Storms along Utah's Wasatch Front

Ashley Nicole Evans, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and P. Veals, M. L. Wasserstein, and J. Steenburgh

Impact of Assimilating WSR-88D Radar Observations on Snowband Prediction within the Comma Head of Northeast U.S. Cyclone

Keenan Fryer, Spire Global, Boulder, CO; and B. A. Colle

Examining Vertical Velocities in the Dendritic Growth Zones of WRF Simulations of High Impact East Coast Winter Storms

Jacob D. Hair, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. J. Greybush, Y. Zhang, PhD, and M. Kumjian

Handout (6.6 MB)

Characteristics of Lake-Effect Precipitation over the Black River Valley and Western Adirondack Mountains

Jim Steenburgh, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. A. Cunningham, P. Bergmaier, B. N. Geerts, and P. Veals

Observations of Arctic Cyclones and their Interactions with Clouds and Sea Ice during THINICE

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and G. Riviere, J. Delanoë, and J. Methven

Handout (7.3 MB)

Using Airborne Measurements to Evaluate HRRR Forecasts of Freezing Drizzle Aloft: Results from the WINTRE-MIX Field Campaign

Megan Rebecca Schiede, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and J. R. Minder

Synoptic-Scale Predictability of Two Near-Freezing Precipitation Events during the WINTRE-MIX Field Campaign

Clairisse Alison Reiher, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. C. Winters

Contributing Factors to Simulated Vertical Structure of Microscale Features in the Snake River Plain

Joseph Edward Wermter, SRNL= Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC; and S. R. Chiswell

The Development and Testing of a Bias Correction Algorithm for Mesonet Wind Observations in 3D-RTMA

Matthew Thomas Morris, SAIC @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and R. J. Purser, M. Pondeca, E. Colon, G. Zhao, A. M. Gibbs, and J. R. Carley

Impact of Assimilating New York Stat MesoNet and Two Offshore LiDARs on Modeling the New York Bight Jet

Nicholas M. Leonardo, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, MA; and B. A. Colle and J. M. Freedman

A Review and Analysis of the Addition of TAC and High Resolution BUFR Format Sonde Data and GPS Information to EMC's Observations Processing

Nicholas R. Esposito, SAIC @ NOAA NWS NCEP EMC, College Park, MD; NOAA, College Park, MD; and A. Collard, I. Genkova, C. Hill, D. T. Kleist, and D. Merkova

The Possible Wind Effect on the Travelling Speed and Collisional Breakup of Raindrops in the Near-Surface of Landfalling Typhoons

The Use of METplus in Testbeds for Research to Operations Activities

Tara L. Jensen, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and J. Opatz, T. J. Hertneky, M. A. Harrold, K. M. Newman, W. Mayfield, C. P. Kalb, J. Beck, W. Li, L. Pan, M. Zhang, L. B. Nance, M. B. Ek, M. Smith, and J. L. Vigh

Assessment of RRFS Based Cloud Forecasts at the Aviation Weather Testbed

Robert M. Hepper, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and A. E. Cross, S. J. Avey, T. A. Higginbotham, and A. P. Korner

Handout (5.6 MB)

FV3-LAM Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts and Ensemble Consensus Products for the 13th HMT Winter Weather Experiment

Phillip Spencer, CAPS, Norman, OK; and K. A. Brewster

Handout (2.0 MB)

Formulation and Evaluation of a Calibrated Tornado Forecast Guidance Ensemble

David E. Jahn, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations and Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. T. Smith, I. L. Jirak, C. Karstens, E. D. Loken, B. T. Gallo, and T. A. Supinie

Manuscript (878.6 kB)

An Initial Assessment of Environmental Influences on QLCS-tornadogenesis from PERiLS Field Campaign Datasets and High-Resolution Simulations

Aaron J. Hill, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. Dowell and C. C. Weiss

Quase-Linear Convective Systems Over Complex Terrain in South of Brazil

William Coelho, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil; and D. L. HERDIES and L. Nolasco

The Impacts of Assimilating Aeolus Horizontal Line-of-Sight Winds on Numerical Predictions of Hurricane Ida (2021) and a Mesoscale Convective System over the Atlantic Ocean

Chengfeng Feng, The Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Resolved Convection Improves the Representation of Equatorial Waves and Tropical Rainfall Variability in a Global Nonhydrostatic Model

Falko Judt, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO

Climate and Covid 19 challenges on rice farming in Ikwo, Ebonyi state Nigeria

Application of Adjoint-Derived Ensemble for Tropical Cyclones Rapid Intensification

Zoe A. Zibton, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

Rainfall Distribution And Extreme Flash Floods in Semi-Arid Region of El Paso, Texas

Nakul Nitin Karle, PhD, NCAS-M, Beltsville, MD; Howard Univ., Washington, DC; and S. Chiao, J. Laney, J. Barham, and G. Lundeen

The Mesoscale Meteorology of the June 2021 Northwest Heatwave

Clifford F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Ovens

Update on the Use of WRF TKE Profiles in SCIPUFF Dipole Pride 26 Field Test Comparison

David R. Stauffer, Xator Corporation, a Parsons Company, State College, PA

Got Code ? Join the UFS Community !

Hendrik L. Tolman, Dr. Ir., NOAA, Silver Spring, MD

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Session 10

Model Development and Application: Model Overviews

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Benjamin C Trabing; Kathryn M. Newman, Developmental Testbed Center (DTC)

11:15 AM

10.1

Development and Evaluation of the NEPTUNE Prediction System

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and A. Reinecke, M. Diaz, M. Martini, and J. Michalakes

Handout (10.1 MB)

11:30 AM

10.2

Modeling Updates at the US Air Force’s 16th Weather Squadron

Evan L. Kuchera, U.S. Air Force, 557th Weather Wing, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. Martinelli and J. Smith

11:45 AM

10.3

The Navy Earth System Prediction Capability: Version 2 Developments

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Allard, C. Barron, W. Crawford, M. Flatau, D. Hebert, G. Jacobs, M. Janiga, T. Jensen, D. D. Kuhl, R. Linzell, F. Liu, J. McLay, E. J. Metzger, S. Rushley, J. Ridout, E. Rogers, C. Rowley, J. Shriver, O. M. Smedstad, P. Thoppil, T. Townsend, and T. Whitcomb

12:00 PM

10.4

The 200-Member West-WRF Near Real-Time Forecast Ensemble

Daniel F. Steinhoff, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, San Diego, CA

12:15 PM

10.5

IBM GRAF - Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecast SystemAn Operational 2023 Update and Roadmap

Brett A. Wilt, IBM, Andover, MA

Session 10

Prediction Of and Data Assimilation in Mesoscale Processes and Mesoscale Extremes

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Cochairs: Xingchao Chen, The Pennsylvania State University; Matthew Graber, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

11:15 AM

10.1

Simultaneous Assimilation of Polarimetric and All-Sky Satellite Data for Ensemble Convection Forecasts

Keenan Christopher Eure, The Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; and Y. Zhang, PhD, D. J. Stensrud, and M. Kumjian

11:30 AM

10.2

Impact of Soil Moisture Data Assimilation on the Numerical Simulation of Landfalling Hurricanes

Zhaoxia Pu, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

11:45 AM

10.3

Assessing the Value of Assimilating Surface, PBL, and Free Atmosphere Observations from TORUS on Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts

Matthew Wilson, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. L. Houston

12:00 PM

10.4

Improving the Prediction and Discernment of Frontal Boundaries with Deep Learning

Andrew Douglas Justin, NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES), Norman, OK; and A. McGovern and J. T. Allen

12:15 PM

10.5

Improving Prediction and Advancing Understanding of Weather Systems over North Africa and the Tropical Atlantic Using CPEX-CV Lidar Observations

Shu-Hua Chen, Univ. of California, Davis, Davis, CA

Session 10

R2O and R2O2R Activities and Testing (e.g., testbeds)

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Jack Lind, CIRA/AWC; Austin A. Coleman, Texas Tech University

11:15 AM

10.1

An Overview of the 1st Hybrid NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment in 2023

Adam J. Clark, NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, T. A. Supinie, J. Vancil, D. E. Jahn, K. H. Knopfmeier, P. Heinselman, P. Skinner, P. C. Burke, K. A. Hoogewind, J. Martin, M. L. Flora, B. C. Matilla, M. Krocak, A. L. Brannan, C. Karstens, E. D. Loken, N. A. Dahl, D. R. Harrison, D. A. Imy, A. Wade, J. Milne, and J. Picca

11:30 AM

10.2

Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System during the 2023 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Jacob Vancil, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak

Manuscript (989.0 kB)

11:45 AM

10.3

Exploring Probabilistic Guidance for Aviation Decision Making through the Aviation Weather Testbed

Stephanie J. Avey, ; and A. E. Cross, A. Korner, and J. Lind

12:00 PM

10.4

Better Utilization of Ensembles in Operations Through Clustering: An R2O Success Story

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. A. Nelson Jr., A. A. Coleman, W. Lamberson, and T. Wilson

12:15 PM

10.5

Updates and Additions to the Prototype NWS Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) Travel

Dana Tobin, CU/CIRES and NOAA/NWS/WPC, College Park, MD; and J. Kastman and J. A. Nelson Jr.

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Session 11

Forecast Verification Methods and Performance: Model Evaluation Techniques

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Geoffrey Manikin; Jason J. Levit

2:00 PM

11.1

Application of Multi-Dimensional Stratification in Forecast Verification

Michael E. Baldwin, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Norman, OK

Handout (3.1 MB)

2:15 PM

11.2

Recent Advances in the METplus Verification and Diagnostic Capability Across Multiple Scales and Applications

Tara L. Jensen, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and J. Halley Gotway, J. Opatz, C. P. Kalb, J. L. Vigh, D. R. Adriaansen, M. K. Biswas, K. M. Newman, M. A. Harrold, and T. J. Hertneky

2:30 PM

11.3

Convergence of Sampling Uncertainty in Forecast Models: When Do We Have Enough Ensemble Members?

Kirsten Tempest, Ludwig Maximilian Univ., Munich, BY, Germany; and G. C. Craig, M. Puh, C. Keil, and J. R. Brehmer

2:45 PM

11.4

Validating HRRR Simulated Cloud Properties for Different Weather Phenomena Using Satellite and Radar Observations

Sarah Griffin, UW-CIMSS, Madison, WI

3:00 PM

11.5

Assessing the Meteorological Skill of the Navy Weather Model (COAMPS)

Rachel Erin Kennedy, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter

3:15 PM

11.6

An Analysis on the Sources of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Bifurcation in the COAMPS-TC and GEFS Ensembles

Kevin Prince, National Research Council, Washington, DC, MD; and W. Komaromi, J. Moskaitis, and J. D. Doyle

Session 11

Forecasting of Extreme Precipitation Events: Atmospheric Rivers

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Joe Koval, Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques Research Group; Jason M. Cordeira

2:00 PM

11.1

Atmospheric River Reconnaissance in Water Year 2023 – A Research and Operations Partnership

Anna M. Wilson, SIO, Durham, NC; and M. M. Ralph, V. S. Tallapragada, C. Davis, L. Delle Monache, J. D. Doyle, F. Pappenberger, C. A. Reynolds, A. C. Subramanian, D. Lavers, L. Centurioni, J. S. Haase, B. Cao, J. M. Cordeira, B. Kawzenuk, E. Knappe, A. Lundry, A. C. Michaelis, R. Rickert, S. C. Roj, J. J. Rutz, R. D. Torn, X. Wu, and M. Zheng

2:15 PM

11.2

Near-Real-Time Data Impact Studies for Extreme Precipitation Events during Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Program using NCEP Operational Global Forecast System

Vijay S. Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD; and X. Wu and M. M. Ralph

2:30 PM

11.3

Application of Ensemble Sensitivity during the 2022/2023 AR-Recon Season

Ryan D. Torn, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

2:45 PM

11.4

Evaluation of Weather Forecast Errors during Major Atmospheric River Sequences Impacting California during Winter 2022-2023

Rachel R. Weihs, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, San Diego, CA; and S. C. Roj, L. DeHaan, N. R. Mascioli, D. Reynolds, J. M. Cordeira, C. Grudzien, D. F. Steinhoff, L. Delle Monache, and M. M. Ralph

3:00 PM

11.5

Drought-Alleviating Heavy Precipitation in California During Winter 2022–2023

Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

3:15 PM

11.6

An Overview of a Heavy Precipitation Event over California in October 2021: Roles of an Extreme Atmospheric River and Explosive Extratropical Cyclone

Clinton Alden, Univ. of California San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA; and M. Zheng, M. M. Ralph, Z. Zhang, and L. Delle Monache

Session 11

Science and Prediction of Extreme Rainfall

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Cochairs: Angela Rowe; Ian Cornejo, University of Wisconsin - Madison

2:00 PM

11.1

Environmental Properties of Heavy Rainfall Events under Extremely Humid Conditions during the Rainy Season (Baiu) in Japan

Tetsuya Takemi, PhD, Kyoto Univ., Uji, Japan; and N. Naka

2:15 PM

11.2

Evaluation and Assimilation of Low-Level Moisture from the MPD during the

Yunji Zhang, PhD, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and X. Chen

2:30 PM

11.3

The Role of Wind Shear, Vertical Vorticity, and Pressure Perturbations on a Terrain Anchored, High-Precipitation Supercell

Terrence Corrigan, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger

2:45 PM

11.4

Recent Observed Trends and Interannual Variability of Summertime Extreme Convective Rainfall Events in the Central and Eastern United States

Jason Chiappa, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. B. Parsons, A. Shapiro, and J. C. Furtado

3:00 PM

11.5

Sensitivity of Tropical Oceanic Convection to Horizontal Model Resolution in Idealized Simulations Forced with PRECIP Observations

Rosimar Rios-Berrios, ; and G. H. Bryan

3:15 PM

11.6

Sources of Forecast Errors for Extreme-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Hill

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Session 12

Forecast Verification Methods and Performance: Unified Forecast System (UFS) Verification

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Geoffrey Manikin; Tara L. Jensen, NOAA

4:15 PM

12.1

The Environmental Modeling Center Verification System (EVS): Real-Time Verification of Unified Forecast System (FS) Models

Jason J. Levit, EMC, College Park, MD; and G. Manikin, A. M. Bentley, L. C. Dawson, and T. L. Jensen

4:30 PM

12.2

Comparison of Time-Lagging and Neighborhood Methods on the Performance of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System

Christina P. Kalb, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Mayfield, J. Beck, G. Ketefian, C. Schwartz, M. A. Harrold, and B. Nelson

4:45 PM

12.3

Convectively Coupled Equatorial Wave Skill in the Unified Forecast System

Maria Gehne, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias

5:00 PM

12.4

The Unified Forecast System: Principles and Progress

Hendrik L. Tolman, Dr. Ir., NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and N. A. Jacobs

5:15 PM

12.5

Evaluating RRFS Prototypes within an Agile Testing Framework to Help Inform Future Operational Implementation

Michelle A. Harrold, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and J. Beck, M. J. Kavulich Jr., G. Ketefian, W. Mayfield, and J. K. Wolff

Session 12

Forecasting of Extreme Precipitation Events II

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Nicholas D. Metz; Anna M. Wilson

4:15 PM

12.1

The NOAA Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge: Advancing Predictions of Extreme Rainfall

David R. Novak, NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD

4:30 PM

12.2

Characterizing Warm-Season Extreme Precipitation in the HREF Means

Diana Rose Stovern, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Bytheway, K. M. Mahoney, B. J. Moore, S. M. Trojniak, J. Correia Jr., and M. R. Abel

4:45 PM

12.3

Characterizing Extreme Precipitation in HREF Individual Ensemble Members

Janice L. Bytheway, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and D. R. Stovern, K. M. Mahoney, J. Correia Jr., S. M. Trojniak, B. J. Moore, and M. R. Abel

5:00 PM

12.4

Evaluation of Model Guidance for Two High-Impact Flooding Events in July 2022

Marcel G. Caron, SAIC, College Park, MD; and L. C. Dawson and G. Manikin

12.5

Interconnections between SST and Extreme Rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea

Session 12

Organized Moist Convection III

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

CoChair: Stacey M. Hitchcock

4:15 PM

12.1

The Covariability of Microphysical and Dynamical Processes within Convective Updrafts in Different Environments and Storm Types

Peter J. Marinescu, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. C. van den Heever, J. Bukowski, L. D. Grant, D. J. Posselt, PhD, and I. Singh

4:30 PM

12.2

Sensitivity Study of Deep Convection Dynamics to Tropospheric Humidity Using Large-Eddy Simulations

Didier Ricard, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and M. Sellier and C. Lac

4:45 PM

12.3

Dry Air Above the PBL As a Convection Initiation Failure Mode in Idealized Simulations

Christopher Nowotarski, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and D. Bissell, J. M. Peters, and J. P. Mulholland

5:00 PM

12.4

The Impact of CIN Depth on Simulated Deep Convection Initiation

Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE

5:15 PM

12.5

Convective Stratospheric Hydration, AACPs, & Tropopause Height

Elisa Murillo, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. R. Homeyer and G. L. Mullendore

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Session

AMS Student Engagement Social Hour

Location: Rooftop Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Thursday, 20 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Session 13

New Post-Processing and Bias-Correction Techniques: Post-Processing and Diagnostic Tools for Weather Forecasting

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

CoChair: Jun Du, NOAA NWS NCEP EMC

8:30 AM

13.1

Global Statistical Postprocessing of Precipitation Amount at the IBM/Weather Company

Thomas M. Hamill, The Weather Company, Boulder, CO; and P. P. Neilley, J. K. Williams, J. P. Koval, L. C. Gaudet, and C. Guiang

8:45 AM

13.2

Spatial Alignment of CAM Ensemble Members to Improve Ensemble Consensus Precipitation

Chang Jae Lee, CAPS, Norman, OK

Manuscript (804.2 kB)

9:00 AM

13.3

Ensemble Subsetting of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts to Improve Thunderstorm Initiation Nowcasting

George Limpert, Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and K. Eastman, S. Herridge, A. Newcome, D. Butler, A. L. Houston, C. K. Potvin, and C. A. Kerr

9:15 AM

13.4

Design and Evaluation of an ESA-Based Method of Ensemble Subsetting for a WoF-like System

Dan Butler, Univ. of Nebraska Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston, G. Limpert, C. K. Potvin, and C. A. Kerr

9:30 AM

13.5

FV3-LAM CAM Ensemble Predictions and Consensus Products for Predicting Heavy Rain for the Hydrometeorology Testbed

Keith A. Brewster, CAPS, Norman, OK; and N. A. Snook, T. A. Supinie, P. Spencer, and M. Xue

Session 13

Professor Lev Gutman's 100th Anniversary I

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Cochairs: Garik Gutman, NASA; Roger A. Pielke, Univ. of Colorado

8:30 AM

13.1

The Legacy of Prof. Lev Gutman: A Short Bio and Curious Facts

Garik Gutman, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC

9:00 AM

13.2

Professor Lev Gutman’s Multiple Seminal Contributions to Mesoscale Meteorology

Roger A. Pielke Sr., CIRES, Highlands Ranch, CO

9:30 AM

13.3

Gutman and Mesoscale Modelling

Svante Bodin, Phd, International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, Stockholm, Sweden

J13

Winter Storms: Effects of Extreme Temperature Outbreaks

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Andrew A. Rosenow, PhD; Steven J. Greybush

8:30 AM

JointJ13.1

An Analysis of the Predictability of the February 2021 Cold Air Outbreak at S2S Timescales

Grace Elizabeth Dines, SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY

8:45 AM

JointJ13.2

A Space-Based Analysis of North Atlantic Snowfall and Clouds during Marine Cold-Air Outbreaks

Marian Mateling, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, MADISON, WI; Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and C. Pettersen, M. S. Kulie, and T. S. L'Ecuyer

9:00 AM

JointJ13.3

Direct and Indirect Relationships Between Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in Colorado

Xun Zou, Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and J. M. Cordeira, S. B. BATTULA, J. J. Rutz, and Z. Zhang

9:15 AM

JointJ13.4

Climatological Perspective and Synoptic Analysis of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in California During December 2022 and January 2023

Jason M. Cordeira, UCSD/SIO/CW3E, La Jolla, CA; and S. M. Bartlett, L. F. Bosart, C. Castellano, A. Cobb, C. W. Hecht, T. Y. HSU, J. F. Kalansky, B. Kawzenuk, T. C. Leicht, A. K. Mitchell, B. J. Moore, D. L. Nash, M. M. Ralph, and X. zou

9:30 AM

JointJ13.5

Cold-Season Subtropical Air Mass Intrusions into North American Extratropical Latitudes: Dynamic and Thermodynamic Impacts on Extreme Precipitation

John Richard Gyakum, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Poster Viewing and Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Thursday Poster Session

Location: Hall of Ideas (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes )

A Numerical Study of Hurricane Maria 2017 Using a Fast Version Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Jiali Wang, ANL, Lemont, IL; and G. Sever, C. Jung, W. J. Pringle, and R. Kotamarthi

Development of an Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Metric for Tropical Cyclone Hazard Forecasts

Melissa Piper, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Effect of Northward Ageostrophic Winds Associated with a Tropical Cyclone on PRE Rainfall Enhancement

Kazuo Saito, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Univ. of Tokyo, kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; and T. Matsunobu and T. Oizumi

Handout (2.2 MB)

Analysis on the Track Deflection of Hurricane Florence (2018) Using HWRF Modeling and Vorticity Budget Analysis

Lela Shumpert, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and L. Liu and Y. L. Lin

Manuscript (3.0 MB)

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Onset Using an Adjoint Model

Zoe A. Zibton, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

Examining Tropical Cyclone Rainbands as Detected by Ground- and Space-Based Radars

Corene J. Matyas, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and Z. S. Ali, K. Wood, and S. E. Zick

Manuscript (922.4 kB)

Evaluation of the GPM IMERG Precipitation Products Using Rain Gauge Network Dataset over the Tibetan Plateau

Yuanchun Zhang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, Beijing, Beijing, China; and Y. Huang and J. Sun

Impact of Frontal Boundaries on Tornadogenesis Associated with Landfalling Hurricanes

Kinematic Modeling Study of the Re-Organization of Snowfall Beneath Cloud-Top Generating Cells in Midlatitude Cyclones

Andrew Janiszeski, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and R. M. Rauber, B. Jewett, G. M. McFarquhar, T. J. Zaremba, and J. E. Yorks

A Preliminary Assessment of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model’s Ability to Predict the Great Lakes Lake-Breeze Front and Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Collin DeYoung, Univ. of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

Simulation of Surface Mesovortices Formation and Maintenance in the St. Louis Metropolitan Area

Examining Multi-Scale Atmospheric Processes and Land-Atmosphere Interactions Associated with Drought over the Western U.S. in 2021-2022

Michael John Pye, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Idealized Simulations of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Response to Varying Coastal Land Surface Properties

Peter M Finocchio, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. A. Biernat and J. D. Doyle

Effects of Land Surface Type on Sea-Breeze Convection in the Houston Area

Benjamin David Ascher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. M. Saleeby, P. J. Marinescu, and S. C. Van Den Heever

Environmental Conditions, Evolution and Mechanisms of the EF4 Tornado in Kaiyuan of Liaoning Province on 3 July 2019

Yongguang Zheng Sr., National Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, Beijing, China; and Y. Lan

Manuscript (1.0 MB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

Satellite Radiance Data Assimilation in the NOAA’s Next Generation Regional Model - Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS)

Xiaoyan Zhang, EMC, College Park, MD; SAIC @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and T. lei, S. Liu, H. Lin, and J. R. Carley

Evolution of Multiband Structures Within the 16 February 2023 Midwest Cyclone During the IMPACTS Field Campaign

Phillip Yeh, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Precipitation Growth Processes in the Comma Head Region of the 7 February 2020 Northeast Snowstorm: Results from IMPACTS

Troy Justin Zaremba, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Varcie, R. M. Rauber, G. M. McFarquhar, J. Finlon, L. McMurdie, A. V. Ryzhkov, M. Schnaiter, E. Järvinen, F. Waitz, D. J. Delene, M. Poellot, and A. Janiszeski

A Multi-Probe Automated Classification of Ice Crystal Habits During the IMPACTS Campaign

Julian Christopher Schima, CIWRO, Norman, OK; and G. M. McFarquhar, D. Delene, A. J. Heymsfield, A. Bansemer, M. Schnaiter, J. Finlon, E. Järvinen, and F. Waitz

Mesoscale Processes Leading to Warm Sector Convection Initiation During the 27 April 2011 Afternoon Supercell Outbreak

Manda B. Chasteen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno, S. E. Koch, and G. S. Romine

An Examination of Tornadogenesis during the 01 January 2022 Triana, Alabama Tornado

Zebulon W. Leffler, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL

Using Machine Learning to Predict Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Skill: Evaluation with the NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System

Corey K. Potvin, NSSL, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Flora, P. S. Skinner, A. E. Reinhart, and B. C. Matilla

Handout (1.4 MB)

100

Analysis of Uncertainty in Location and Motion Information in Tornado Warnings

Kevin Ash, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. M. Feemster, C. L. Williams, J. Boehnert, J. L. Demuth, D. J. Gagne II, Ph.D., R. E. Morss, O. Wilhelmi, F. Bowser, M. Bunkers, C. Karstens, J. G. LaDue, and D. D. Nietfeld

101

Geospatial Analysis of Tornado Path Locations within and Near Storm-Based Tornado Warnings

Caley Feemster, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL

102

Effects of Terrain and Land Cover on Radar-Observed 3-Dimensional Tornado Wind Fields

Jana B. Houser, PhD, The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and B. Price, H. B. Bluestein, K. A. Kosiba, Z. B. Wienhoff, and J. Wurman

103

A Virtual Workshop Involving College Students to Explore the Relative Role of Visualization and Stakeholder Interaction on Risk Perception

Josef Moses, Stony Brook Univ., North Babylon, NY; Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, J. R. Hathaway, E. Bojsza, S. S. Davis, K. E. Rowan, A. Hills, E. C. Duesterhoeft, S. Boorboor, A. E. Kaufman, and S. E. Brennan

Poster 104 is now Paper 17.5A

105

Factors Contributing to the Offshore Propagation of Coastal Rainfall over Western Africa As Deduced from CPEX-CV Observations

Rosimar Rios-Berrios, ; and K. M. Nunez-Ocasio, S. N. Wu, N. Sakaeda, and E. R. Martin

106

Towards an Updated Climatology of Overland Tropical Cyclone Maintenance and Intensification in Non-/Weakly Baroclinic Environments

Andrew O. Hickok, Univ. of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and M. P. Vossen and C. Evans

107

A Climatology of Mesoscale Airmasses with High Theta-e Across the Continental United States

Charles Kropiewnicki, Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln, Mullica Hill, NJ; Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston and J. M. Keeler

108

Understanding the Clustering of Proximity Sounding Profiles and Sounding Derived Parameters for Near-Storm Environments

Zhanxiang Hua, Univ. of Washington Seattle, Seattle, WA; and A. Anderson-Frey

109

Synoptic Control on the Initiation and Upscale Growth of Warm-season MCSs over the South China Coast

Chenli Wang, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and X. Chen, K. zhao, and C. H. Peng

Handout (571.4 kB)

110

Using an Ensemble Prediction System to Evaluate the Factors Influencing the Stationary Behavior of a Landfalling Atmospheric River over Central California

Ivan Leonel Fontanez, SUNY, Aguas Buenas, PR; and R. D. Torn

111

Contribution of Atmospheric Rivers to Seasonal Precipitation in the US Intermountain West

Divya Rea, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL; and R. M. Rauber

113

Spatiotemporal Variability in Convective Cells and their Thermodynamic and Aerosol Environments during TRACER

Milind Sharma, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and C. Nowotarski, A. D. Rapp, S. D. Brooks, S. Thompson, and B. Chen

114

Sensitivity of Weather Forecasts to Soil Moisture Perturbations in Coastal Regions

Kevin A. Biernat, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Finocchio and J. D. Doyle

115

Sensitivity Experiments of Gravity Wave Drag Parameterizations for Unified Forecast Systems (UFS)

Song You Hong, NOAA/PSL and Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and M. D. Toy, J. W. Bao, J. B. Olson, and F. Yang

Phenomenological Analyses of Alternate Energy Sources

Using Machine Learning Techniques to Switch Between Distributions to Improve Data Assimilation

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Session 14

New Post-Processing and Bias-Correction Techniques: Machine Learning, Neural Networks, and Other Techniques

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: David John Gagne II, Ph.D.; Ryan A. Sobash; Christina P. Kalb, NCAR

11:15 AM

14.1

Prospects for Machine Learning Activity within the United States National Weather Service

Paul J. Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin at Milwaukee, Whitefish Bay, WI; and S. B. Smith

11:30 AM

14.2

Verification of a Sensitivity-Based Ensemble Subsetting Approach Augmented with Machine-Learning-Based Predictions of Severe Hazards

Austin A. Coleman, CIRES / WPC, Boulder, CO; Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

11:45 AM

14.3

A Neural-Network Based MPAS—Shallow Water Model and Its 4D-Var Data Assimilation System

Xiaoxu Tian, Axiom with NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; Tomorrow.io, Boston, MA; and L. Conibear and J. Steward

12:00 PM

14.4

Improvement in Track and Intensity Prediction of Hurricane Florence (2018) Using Hurricane WRF (HWRF) Model with Ensemble Techniques

Liping Liu, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and A. Tyson, Y. L. Lin, and R. Luettich

Manuscript (2.0 MB)

12:15 PM

14.5

How Should a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Forecast be Used: Full Field or Anomaly?

Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD

Handout (2.4 MB)

Session 14

Professor Lev Gutman's 100th Anniversary II

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Cochairs: Garik Gutman, NASA; Pinhas Alpert

11:15 AM

14.1

Mesometeorological Motions Caused By Topography

Alexander P. Khain, The Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem, Israel, Jerusalem, Israel

14.2

The potential of an index for mesoscale activity based on high resolution INCA-analysis data

11:30 AM

14.2A

Urban and Boundary Layer Meso-Meteorological Modeling for Integrated Systems: In Memory of Prof. L. Gutman

Alexander Baklanov, WMO, Geneva, Geneva canton, Switzerland; WMO, Geneve, Switzerland

11:45 AM

14.3

Numerical Modeling of Dust Distribution in the Atmosphere of the Caucasus Region with Complex Terrain

Aleksandre Surmava, Tbilisi, Georgia

12:00 PM

14.4

Exact Solutions of the Ekman Problem with Periodic Forcing

Georgy Burde, Ben-Gurion Univ. of the Negev, Midreshet Ben Gurion, Negev, Israel

14.5

On the Contribution of Prof. Lev Gutman to Nonhydrostatic Atmospheric Modeling for Weather Prediction in the USSR-Russia

12:15 PM

14.6

The Potential of an Index for Mesoscale Activity – Based on High Resolution INCA-Analysis Data

Pinhas Alpert, Tel Aviv Univ., Tel-Aviv, Israel; and D. Mordochovich

J14

Winter Storms: Results from NASA IMPACTS Field Campaign (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction)

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Claire Pettersen; Marian Mateling

11:15 AM

JointJ14.1

Micro- and Mesoscale Structures within Snowbands in Winter Storms: Preliminary Results from the Inestigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) Field Campaign

Lynn McMurdie, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. Heymsfield, J. E. Yorks, and J. Finlon

11:30 AM

JointJ14.2

Assessing Predictability of Winter Storms during the NASA IMPACTS Field Campaign

Steven J. Greybush, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. Seibert, S. Zhang, J. D. Hair, E. Myskowski, Y. Zhang, PhD, and M. Kumjian

11:45 AM

JointJ14.3

Passive Microwave Observations of Mesoscale Snow Bands from NASA IMPACTS

Matthew A. Miller, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter and L. M. Tomkins

12:00 PM

JointJ14.4

Multimodal Ice Crystal Size Distributions in Atlantic Coast Snowstorms: Results from IMPACTS 2020

Peter Anthony Brechner, MS, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. M. McFarquhar, J. Schima, D. J. Delene, C. Nairy, K. L. Thornhill, J. Finlon, D. W. Toohey, A. J. Heymsfield, A. Bansemer, R. M. Rauber, E. Järvinen, and M. Schnaiter

12:15 PM

JointJ14.5

Variability of Cool Season Precipitation Structures Within the Cyclone Comma Head

Phillip Yeh, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; SUNY Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, L. M. Tomkins, and S. E. Yuter

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Session 15

Forecasting High-Impact Weather with Artificial Intelligence: Applications for Severe Weather

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Aaron J. Hill, Colorado State University; Eric P. James

2:00 PM

15.1

Building Real-Time Machine Learning Forecast and Visualization Systems

David John Gagne II, Ph.D., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Becker, G. Gantos, R. A. Sobash, D. A. Ahijevych, N. A. Snook, R. Chase, L. K. Spychalla, M. Shotande, A. McGovern, C. D. Wirz, C. K. Potvin, and M. G. Cains

2:15 PM

15.2

Applying Dense and Convolutional Neural Networks to the HRRR and RRFS to Generate Reliable, Skillful 1-48 Hour Predictions of Severe Weather Reports, Warnings, and Lightning

Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, Y. Sha, C. S. Schwartz, D. J. Gagne II, Ph.D., D. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, and S. Benjamin

2:30 PM

15.3

Producing Machine Learning-Based Severe Weather Guidance at Watch-to-Warning Lead Times

Sam Varga, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. L. Flora and C. K. Potvin

2:45 PM

15.4

Evaluation of the Warn-on-Forecast Machine Learning System in the 2022 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Montgomery L. Flora, CIWRO; NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, P. S. Skinner, A. McGovern, B. T. Gallo, K. A. Wilson, and A. J. Clark

3:00 PM

15.5

Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions of Lightning Generated with a Neural Network and HRRR Forecasts

David A. Ahijevych, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Sobash

3:15 PM

15.6

Making Sense of Random Forest-Based Severe Weather Forecasts Using Tree Interpreter

Alexandra Mazurek, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Hill and R. S. Schumacher

Session 15

Model Development and Application: Stochastic Physics

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Daryl T. Kleist; Michelle A. Harrold, NCAR

2:00 PM

15.1

Testing Stochastic Physics Perturbation Methods in an Experimental Next-Generation 1-km Warn-on-Forecast System

Derek R. Stratman, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, C. A. Kerr, B. C. Matilla, and Y. Wang

2:15 PM

15.2

Stochastic Physics in the FV3-LAM/SRW App: Implementation, Testing, and Transition to Operations in the RRFS

Jeff Beck, NOAA/GSL, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Wolff, W. Mayfield, M. A. Harrold, W. Li, J. Berner, P. Pegion, C. Zhou, D. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, and J. R. Carley

2:30 PM

15.3

Evaluating Stochastic Parameter Perturbations in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of Lake-Effect Snow

W. Massey Bartolini, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and J. R. Minder

2:45 PM

15.4

Impact of Ensemble Design in the Rapid Refresh Forecast System Using Initial Condition and Stochastic Physics Perturbations

Will Mayfield, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Beck, G. Ketefian, M. A. Harrold, B. Nelson, C. P. Kalb, and C. Schwartz

3:00 PM

15.5

Evaluation of Real-time Convection-Allowing FV3 Ensemble Forecasts from the 2022 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment to Inform RRFS Ensemble Design

Nathan A. Snook, CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, J. Park, X. M. Hu, M. R. Johnson, and K. A. Brewster

3:15 PM

15.6

The Development and Evaluation of Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) Multiphysics Ensemble Prototype

Jili Dong, SAIC, College Park, MD; SAIC, College Park, MD; EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, M. E. Pyle, F. Yang, M. Xue, T. A. Supinie, D. Dowell, C. Zhou, J. Beck, E. Mansell, D. R. Stratman, Y. Wang, and J. Han

J15

Predictability of Arctic Cyclones II

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Chair: Ola Persson

2:00 PM

JointJ15.1

Investigating the Relationship between Tropopause Polar Vortices and Arctic Cyclone Longevity

Steven M. Cavallo, Univ. of Oklahoma, Oklahoma City, OK

2:15 PM

JointJ15.2

Characteristics and Lifecycles of Anticyclonic Tropopause Polar Vortices

Joseph Burzdak, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo and D. B. Parsons

2:30 PM

JointJ15.3

Sensitivity of the February 2021 U.S. Cold-Air Outbreak to Tropopause Polar Vortex Intensity

Tomer Burg, CIRES @ NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD; and S. Cavallo

2:45 PM

JointJ15.4

Impact of Assimilating the THINICE2022 Continuous Windborne Observations inside a TPV on the Predictability of an Arctic Cyclone

ZHIHONG CHEN, The Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. T. Johnson, X. Wang, J. Creus-Costa, and T. Hutchinson

3:00 PM

JointJ15.5

Impact of Windborne Observation Assimilation on Prediction of a TPV Merger and Arctic Cyclogenesis Case Study from THINICE

Aaron T. Johnson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, J. Creus-Costa, and T. Hutchinson

3:15 PM

JointJ15.6

The Impact of Assimilated Clear-Sky and Cloudy Retrievals on Arctic Prediction During THINICE 2022

Steven Businger, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and T. Dunn, P. Antonelli, T. Cherubini, P. Scaccia, A. Valletti, and T. Corrigan

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Session 16

Forecast Verification Methods and Performance: CAM Verification

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Jacob R. Carley; Logan C. Dawson

4:15 PM

16.1

Deriving PBL Properties with Aircraft Data and Comparing to the HRRR Model

Jason M. English, CIRES/NOAA GSL, Boulder, CO; and D. D. Turner, M. B. Smith, and D. R. Adriaansen

4:30 PM

16.2

Determining Causes for Modeled Mesoscale Convective System Dissipation Time Errors

Sam Ritter, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

4:45 PM

16.3

Sensitivity of Object-Based Verification Results to Configuration Options Using MODE

Jeffrey D. Duda, GSL, Boulder, CO; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and D. D. Turner

Handout (1.8 MB)

5:00 PM

16.4

Comparing Surrogate Severe Forecasting Skill and Storm Object Properties of the Experimental NSSL MPAS, RRFS, and HRRR Models

Larissa Joy Reames, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, M. G. Duda, T. A. Jones, K. H. Knopfmeier, E. Mansell, C. K. Potvin, W. Skamarock, Y. Wang, L. J. Wicker, and N. Yussouf

5:15 PM

16.5

Comparisons of the Experimental Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) Model With the Operational HRRR for a Variety of Significant Weather Events

Edward J. Szoke, CIRA & NOAA/GSL, Boulder, CO; ESRL and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, J. M. Brown, and J. Beck

Session 16

Forecasting High-Impact Weather with Artificial Intelligence: Applications for Precipitation and Global Weather

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Clark Evans, UW-Milwaukee; Kathryn Newman, NCAR

4:15 PM

16.1

How Far into the Medium Range Can Probabilistic Excessive Rainfall Forecasts be Extended?

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Hill and M. Klein

4:30 PM

16.2

How Long of an Observational Record Is Needed for Skillful ML-Based Forecasts of Excessive Rainfall?

Aaron J. Hill, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

4:45 PM

16.3

Testing Random Forests for Prediction of Excessive Rainfall Based on the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)

Eric P. James, GSD, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Schumacher and A. J. Hill

5:00 PM

16.4

Development of a Convolutional Neural Network to Predict Wintertime Orographic Precipitation Gradients of the Western US

Savanna Wolvin, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. Strong, S. Brewer, J. Steenburgh, and S. Rupper

5:15 PM

16.5

Impacts of Machine Learning for Targeted Observation Thinning in Satellite Data Assimilation

Kirana Olympia Bergstrom, CIRES, Boulder, CO; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and C. E. Kumler, I. Jankov, and J. Q. Stewart

Session 16

Impacts of Inhomogeneous Underlying Surfaces on Convection Initiation and Organization I

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

CoChair: James N. Marquis

4:15 PM

16.1

Lake-Breeze-Front-Like Features During Large-Scale Onshore Flow and Their Influence on Convection Initiation

Christian H Boyer, Lynker at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. M. Keeler

4:30 PM

16.2

Instability Maxima on the Cool Side of Lake-Breeze Fronts and Their Influence on Convection Initiation

Jason M. Keeler, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and C. H. Boyer

4:45 PM

16.3

DEsert-oasis COnvergence line and Deep convection Experiment (DECODE)

Zhiyong Meng, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and X. Meng and C. Wang Sr.

5:00 PM

16.4

Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts during DECODE 2022 in China

Murong ZHANG, Xiamen Univ., Xiamen, Fujian, China; and Z. Meng, Y. Yang, H. Liu, L. Zhu, Y. Huang, and X. Wang

5:15 PM

16.5

Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observations and Large Eddy Simulations over an Irrigation Gradient

Eric Rappin, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY

Friday, 21 July 2023

8:00 AM-3:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

8:00 AM-4:00 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Session 17

Diurnal Cycle, Radiative Feedback, Clouds, and Organized Moist Convection

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Cochairs: Gretchen L. Mullendore, University of North Dakota; Mingyue Tang

8:30 AM

17.1

Stratiform–Radiation Feedback: A Dynamic Pathway of Upscale Convective Growth through Cloud–Radiation Feedback

James H. Ruppert Jr., Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

8:45 AM

17.2

Decomposing Forcing Mechanisms and Impacts of Simulated Diurnal Pulses

Jeremiah Otero Piersante, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero and R. G. Fovell

9:00 AM

17.3

Global Characteristics of On-the-Clock and Off-the-Clock Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Pulses

Kristen L. Corbosiero, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and X. Zhang, S. D. Ditchek, and W. XU

9:15 AM

17.4

The Influence of Land–Sea Contrast and Topography on the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in the Bay of Bengal

ZiJian Chen, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Zhuhai, Guang Dong, China; and Y. Du

17.5

Changes in the Structure and Intensity of Tropical Cyclones associated with Diurnal Pulsing

9:30 AM

17.5A

Diurnal and Seasonal Evolution of the Urban Boundary Layer in Augusta, Georgia

Joseph Edward Wermter, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC; and J. M. Shepherd and M. Appelbaum

9:45 AM

17.6

Land Breeze Characteristics Off the West Coast of Sumatra

Ryan North, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and C. J. Schumacher, C. C. Epifanio, H. Bai, G. Deranadyan, and A. W. Putra

Session 17

Other Topics on Numerical Weather Prediction: Data Assimilation Experiments and Applications

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Cory R Martin, PhD, NOAA NWS NCEP EMC; Daryl T. Kleist

8:30 AM

17.1

The Impact of Reducing the Assimilation Interval in the NOAA Global Data Assimilation System

Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/OAR/PSL, Boulder, CO

8:45 AM

17.2

Assimilation of Screen-Level Temperature and Humidity Observations into NOAA's Global NWP System

Clara S. Draper, PSL, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO

9:00 AM

17.3

Prospects for Using a Multigrid Filter to Characterize the Errors of a Variational Analysis

Robert J. Purser, Lynker @ NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Rancic, M. Pondeca, E. Colon, T. lei, G. Zhao, and S. Yokota

9:15 AM

17.4

Impacts of Northeastern Pacific Buoy Surface Pressure Observations

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Stone, J. D. Doyle, N. L. Baker, Ph.D., A. M. Wilson, M. M. Ralph, D. Lavers, A. C. Subramanian, and L. Centurioni

Handout (2.5 MB)

9:30 AM

17.5

Impact of Microphysical Uncertainty on the Practical Predictability of the 10 August 2020 Midwest Derecho with the Assimilation of All-Sky Infrared Radiances

Yunji Zhang, PhD, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and X. Chen and D. J. Stensrud

9:45 AM

17.6

Evaluation of Real-Time WRF Forecasting Simulations during Escape

Yishi Hu, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Z. J. Lebo

Session 17

Other Topics on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Tomer Burg; Stephanie J. Avey

8:30 AM

17.1

Forecast Verification at The Weather Company/IBM

Joseph P. Koval, IBM/Weather Company, Atlanta, GA; and L. C. Gaudet, J. K. Williams, P. P. Neilley, and T. Hamill

8:45 AM

17.2

Extreme GFS Temperature Forecasts During the Summer of 2022

Geoffrey Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. M. Bentley and S. R. Shields

9:00 AM

17.3

Environmental Conditions and Forecast Error Evolution Associated with Synoptic Progressiveness Errors in GFS Forecasts

Kevin M. Lupo, NCAR, 3090 Center Green Dr., CO; and C. S. Schwartz

9:15 AM

17.4

Calibration of Parameters of the Multigrid Beta Filter (MGBF) and its Performance within the Three-Dimensional Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (3D RTMA) Project

Miodrag Rancic, Lynker, College Park, MD

9:30 AM

17.5

Continual Optimization and Refactoring of GSI for Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS): Current Status and Prospect from the EMC Perspective

Ting lei, Lynker, Leesburg, VA; NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, college park, MD; and S. Liu, E. Rogers, X. Zhang, M. Rancic, M. Pondeca, M. E. Pyle, J. R. Carley, and D. T. Kleist

Manuscript (700.2 kB)

9:45 AM

17.6

A Damaging-Wind Based MCS Classification System and Formal Definition of a Derecho

Brian J. Squitieri, SPC, Norman, OK; and A. Wade and I. L. Jirak

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Friday, 21 July 2023

AM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Session 18

Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Circulations

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Cochairs: James H. Ruppert Jr., Pennsylvania State University; ZiJian Chen

10:45 AM

18.1

Observations of Boundary-Layer Convergence Lines and Associated Updrafts in the US Southern Great Plains

Shanhe Liu, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. J. Kirshbaum and K. D. Sindhu

11:00 AM

18.2

Variability of Successive Cold Pools in BACS-I

Christine Neumaier, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Grant, S. C. van den Heever, B. D. Ascher, J. A. Escobedo, N. M. Falk, S. W. Freeman, G. Leung, A. Mazurek, D. S. Veloso-Aguila, P. J. DeMott, S. M. Kreidenweis, R. J. Perkins, and E. A. Stone

11:15 AM

18.3

Variability Within and Among Midlatitude Cold Pools

Leah D. Grant, Colorado State Univ., FORT COLLINS, CO; and B. Kirsch, N. M. Falk, J. Bukowski, C. Neumaier, F. Ament, S. C. van den Heever, B. D. Ascher, J. A. Escobedo, S. W. Freeman, G. Leung, A. Mazurek, D. S. Veloso-Aguila, P. J. DeMott, S. M. Kreidenweis, R. J. Perkins, and E. A. Stone

11:30 AM

18.4

What Causes Haboobs to Propagate Faster or Slower?

Nicholas Michael Falk, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Grant and S. C. van den Heever

11:45 AM

18.5

The Relevance of Mean-State Critical Levels for the Intensification of Downslope Winds

Gert-Jan Duine, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA; and L. M. Carvalho, W. O. J. Brown, C. B. Clements, S. F. J. De Wekker, D. Emmitt, H. Fernando, C. Jones, S. Oncley, Z. Wang, and L. D. White

Session 18

Other Topics on Numerical Weather Prediction III

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

CoChair: Will Mayfield, NCAR/RAL

10:45 AM

18.1

Forecast Impacts of Observations from WindBorne Long-Duration Weather Balloons

Todd A. Hutchinson, WindBorne Systems, Arlington, MA; WindBorne Systems, Palo Alto, CA; and X. Wu, M. J. Mueller, V. S. Tallapragada, L. Cucurull, J. Creus-Costa, and M. N. Malasala

Examining multi-scale atmospheric processes and land-atmosphere interactions associated with drought over the western U. S. in 2021-2022

11:00 AM

18.2

Applications of GOES-16/17 Atmospheric Motion Vectors to the Initialization and Forecast of Atmospheric Rivers in NWP Models

Minghua Zheng, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and L. Delle Monache, B. Guan, M. M. Ralph, D. E. Waliser, X. Wu, and V. S. Tallapragada

11:15 AM

18.3

Evaluation of the Representation of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds in ECMWF Forecasts during ACLOUD

Hanno Mueller, Leipzig Univ., Leipzig, Germany; and A. Ehrlich, M. Schaefer, and M. Wendisch

18.4

Probabilistic Prediction of Agricultural Spray Drift and Deposition Using an LES Ensemble

Session 18

Other Topics on Weather Analysis and Forecasting: Weather Around the World

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Jeffrey D. Duda; Matthew R. Beitscher, MS, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center

10:45 AM

18.1

Investigating Hail Melt Using Airbourne Observations and Concurrent Surface Observations of Hail

Hannah Vagasky, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA; and R. D. Adams-Selin

11:00 AM

18.2

Environments Associated with Hail Production in Organized Multicellular Systems in Subtropical South America

Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, Verisk AER, Offutt AFB, NE

11:15 AM

18.3

Examining Multi-Scale Interactions Associated with Offshore Rainfall Near the West Coast of Sumatra with Satellite Multi-Sensor Data, Reanalysis, and WRF Numerical Solutions

Johnathan Stoddard, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

11:30 AM

18.4

A Comparison between the only Two Tornado Outbreak Events in China: Tropical Cyclone vs. Extratropical Cyclone Environments

Jingyi Wen, Beijing, Beijing, 11, China; and Z. Meng

11:45 AM

18.5

Development of a Very Short-Range Forecast of Precipitation System in Vietnam

Kazuo Saito, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Univ. of Tokyo, kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan; and K. H. Mai and T. D. Du

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

1:30 PM-2:45 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Session 19

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

CoChair: Falko Judt, NCAR

1:30 PM

19.1

Asymmetric Tropical Cyclone Structures and Processes in Reanalyses and Climate Models

Jacob Carstens, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and C. M. Zarzycki and A. C. Didlake Jr.

19.2

Formation of Tropical Storm Debby (2006) due to Thermal and Mechanical Forcing Associated with the Passage of the Pre-Debby African Easterly Waves over the Guinea Highlands

1:45 PM

Break / Discussion

2:00 PM

19.3

Differences in Tropical Cyclone Tornado Activities and Key Tornadic Environments between China and the U.S

Jingyi Wen, Beijing, Beijing, 11, China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking Univ., Beijing, Beijing, China; and Z. Meng

2:15 PM

19.4

Manifestation of Elevated Convection in Wintertime Extratropical Cyclones During IMPACTS

Kaylee Heimes Lundstrom, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL

2:30 PM

19.5

Preconditioning and Intensification of Upstream Extratropical Cyclones through Surface Fluxes

Reuben Demirdjian, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, C. A. Reynolds, and P. M. Finocchio

2:45 PM-3:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Session 20

Impacts of Inhomogeneous Underlying Surfaces on Convection Initiation and Organization II

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes

CoChair: Zhiyong Meng

3:30 PM

20.1

Some Clouds Just Really like Mountain Climbing: Relationships between LES-Modeled Deep Convection Initiation Events and Orographic Circulations.

James N. Marquis, PNNL, Richland, WA; and A. Varble, PhD, Z. Feng, W. I. Gustafson Jr., PhD, and E. Jo

3:45 PM

20.2

Synoptic Impacts on the Occurrence of Mesoscale Boundaries and Their Associated Convection Over an Area of Sharp Vegetation Contrast

Yipeng Huang, Xiamen Meteorological Bureau, Xiamen, Fujian, China; and Z. Meng and M. ZHANG, PhD

4:00 PM

20.3

Effects of Land-Surface Heterogeneity on Sea-Breeze Convection

Benjamin David Ascher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. Davis, S. M. Saleeby, and S. C. Van Den Heever

4:15 PM

20.4

Convection Initiation Associated with a Boundary Layer Convergence Line over a Real-world Sharp Vegetation-Contrast Area

Hongjun Liu, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking Univ., Beijing, China

4:30 PM

20.5

Environmental Characteristics of Coastal Convection in the Houston Region

Katherine McKeown, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and K. Lombardo and M. Kumjian

4:45 PM

20.6

Diurnal Cycle and Dipolar Pattern of Precipitation over Borneo during the MJO

Shuguang Wang, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Y. Zhou and J. Fang

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Sunday, 16 July 2023

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 16 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Monday, 17 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Meso to Subseasonal Scale Meteorological Phenomena I

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Mesoscale Convective Systems

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Physics Parameterizations across Scales for Weather and Climate Modeling I

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Both research and operational forecast centers are moving towards unified earth system modeling frameworks for applications across different spatial and temporal scales. Unification of physics parameterizations have become a high priority for developing these earth system modeling capabilities. Parameterizations traditionally developed specifically for weather and climate models, and for regional and global models, require further development and evaluation to be scale adaptive for various earth system model applications.

This session seeks contributions regarding the testing and evaluation of scale-aware physics parameterizations for the atmosphere, land, ocean, ice and wave components in earth-system models. Contributions on improvements of existing physics parameterizations, or development of new parameterizations that are scale-aware for earth system modeling, are encouraged. This section also welcomes contributions on consolidation of physical parameterizations representing similar physics processes (e.g. unification of vertical transport in boundary layer and convection schemes) as well as physics-dynamics coupling at different temporal and spatial scales.

9:45 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Virtual Poster Session

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Queer Gatherings (QG) @ Madison

Location: Fair Trade Coffee House

The AMS LGBTQ+ affinity group, Coriolis, is proud to host a coffee break for members of the LGBTQ+ communities and allies attending the Conferences on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Numerical Weather Prediction, and Mesoscale Processes in Madison, WI. The event will take place on Monday, 17 July 2023, and participants should meet at Registration at 9:45am CT to walk to Fair Trade Coffee House or meet directly at the cafe (location here).

Note that because of the informal nature of this gathering, attendees will be expected to cover their own food and drink. For more information about this event, please contact event organizers Matt Brown (matthew.c.brown@noaa.gov) and Jason Keeler (keele1j@cmich.edu). For more information on Coriolis, contact Gaige Kerr (gaigekerr@gwu.edu).

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

AM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

10:15 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

NOAA Testbeds & Proving Grounds: Who We Are and How to Engage

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

NOAA's 12 Testbeds and Proving Grounds are crucial mechanisms for transitioning research into operations at NOAA and other partners, and ultimately into societal benefits. While each of these groups focus on different aspects of the forecast problem, they have a common overarching goal of improving the forecast information that is reaching the public by engaging with the research community to support the transitions of innovations into operations. The purpose of this forum is to inform the community about how these entities are facilitating the transition of research to operations and what avenues are available for the community to engage, as well as collect community input.

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Gravity Waves and Turbulence

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Meso to Subseasonal Scale Meteorological Phenomena II

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Physics Parameterizations across Scales for Weather and Climate Modeling II

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Model Development and Application: PBL and Land-Surface Physics

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Organized Moist Convection I

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

AMS Student Engagement Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Welcome! Student attendees are invited to drop in for a snack and to chat with peers (new and old!) within the conference."

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Forecasting Tools and Techniques Across Weather Scales: Precipitation and Flooding

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Improvements in Tropical Convection Forecasts

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

The quality of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the Tropics is important not only because of the local impact of tropical convection, but also because forecasts of convective activity in the Tropics can impact forecast skill in Mid-latitudes several days later. In particular, representation of large scale convective phenomena such as convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can have a large impact on remote model skill.

We welcome abstracts on model improvements in the representation of tropical convection with impacts on CCEWs or MJO skill and tropical precipitation skill in general. Model improvements of interest include, but are not limited to, deterministic convective parameterizations, coupling between convection and dynamics, coupling between moisture and dynamics, stochastic convection parameterizations, data assimilation techniques that impact tropical convection and precipitation forecasts, and improvements to the representation of air-sea coupling.

Predictability Involving Multi-Scale Processes and Interactions

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Welcome Reception

Location: Rooftop Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Tuesday, 18 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Extratropical Cyclones and Winter Storms

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Forecasting Tools and Techniques across Weather Scales: Probabilities and Bias

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Topic-specific forecast techniques (aviation, fire weather, etc)
Observational and NWP tools to facilitate decision support services, including social media

Model Development and Application: Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) Development and Verification

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Poster Viewing and Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Tuesday Poster Session

Location: Hall of Ideas (Monona Terrace)

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Forecasting Tools and Techniques Across Weather Scales: Severe/Fire

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Model Development and Application: Data Assimilation

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Orographic Flows and Rainfall

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Mesoscale Convective Systems II

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Model Development and Application: RRFS Development and Planning

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Advances Facilitated By New Observational Platforms and Capabilities

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Model Development and Application: Global Model Development and Updates

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Organized Moist Convection II

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Coriolis EDIB Reception

Location: Rooftop Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Sponsored by University of Wisconsin-Madison Division of Diversity, Equity and Educational Achievement

Wednesday, 19 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Other Topics on Numerical Weather Prediction: Data Assimilation Development

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Predictability of Arctic Cyclones I

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

9:00 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Other Topics on Weather Analysis and Forecasting: Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Poster Viewing and Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Wednesday Poster Session

Location: Hall of Ideas (Monona Terrace)

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Model Development and Application: Model Overviews

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Prediction Of and Data Assimilation in Mesoscale Processes and Mesoscale Extremes

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

R2O and R2O2R Activities and Testing (e.g., testbeds)

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Forecast Verification Methods and Performance: Model Evaluation Techniques

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Forecasting of Extreme Precipitation Events: Atmospheric Rivers

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Science and Prediction of Extreme Rainfall

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Extreme rainfall is a global high-impact phenomenon that remains a prediction challenge. Whether this precipitation is produced from mesoscale convective systems, tropical cyclones, frontal, diurnal, or orographic origins, advancements in prediction of extreme rainfall events require improved understanding and representation of the ingredients and processes leading to a spectrum of rain events. Which dynamic, thermodynamic, kinematic, and microphysical factors are more important to improve predictive skill and what model improvements or assimilation of observations result in the most significant forecast improvements? How does complex terrain enhance the intensity and duration of mesoscale drafts in promoting more intense, sustained heavy rainfall?

In this session, we invite submissions addressing this topic from both the observational and prediction perspectives. Insights from recent field campaigns and high-impact rainfall events are especially encouraged. We welcome presentations focusing on extreme rainfall events covering 1) Recent field campaigns, 2) Recent high-impact rainfall events, 3) Mesoscale Convective Systems, 4) Tropical Cyclones, 5) Complex terrain, 6) Multi-scale interactions, 7) Data Assimilation, 8) Model Verification, 9) Prediction Improvements. We enthusiastically welcome submissions from a variety of institutions, career levels, and backgrounds.

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Forecast Verification Methods and Performance: Unified Forecast System (UFS) Verification

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Forecasting of Extreme Precipitation Events II

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Organized Moist Convection III

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

AMS Student Engagement Social Hour

Location: Rooftop Terrace (Monona Terrace)

The AMS Board of Student Affairs would like to invite student attendees of the conferences to decompress, chat, and enjoy light refreshments at a student-run social hour.

Thursday, 20 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

New Post-Processing and Bias-Correction Techniques: Post-Processing and Diagnostic Tools for Weather Forecasting

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Professor Lev Gutman's 100th Anniversary I

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

This session honors the contributions and legacy of Professor Lev Gutman to the science of dynamic meteorology for his 100th anniversary. Professor Gutman's career developed in the Soviet Union, where he built a school of specialists in mesoscale meteorology. He developed analytical methods to solving complex nonlinear problems in dynamic meteorology, such as the structure of sea breeze, mountain-valley circulations, and thermal convection over heated terrain. Lev Gutman pioneered the development of a theory of cumulus clouds, tornados, and other atmospheric phenomena involving vortices. In the 1960s, he compiled the results of the research of the Laboratory he led at the Siberian scientific center in Novosibirsk into a monograph, Introduction to the Nonlinear Theory of Meso-meteorological Processes, which was published in Russian in 1969. It was later translated into English, Chinese, and Japanese and became a major textbook for specialists in dynamic meso-scale meteorology, remaining relevant to this day. After Professor Gutman moved to Israel in 1978, his collaborations expanded to include western scientists from Europe and the United States. Contributions to this session should be thematically linked to Professor Gutman’s research legacy described above.

J13

Winter Storms: Effects of Extreme Temperature Outbreaks

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Poster Viewing and Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Thursday Poster Session

Location: Hall of Ideas (Monona Terrace)

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

New Post-Processing and Bias-Correction Techniques: Machine Learning, Neural Networks, and Other Techniques

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Professor Lev Gutman's 100th Anniversary II

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

J14

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Forecasting High-Impact Weather with Artificial Intelligence: Applications for Severe Weather

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Model Development and Application: Stochastic Physics

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

J15

Predictability of Arctic Cyclones II

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Forecast Verification Methods and Performance: CAM Verification

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Forecasting High-Impact Weather with Artificial Intelligence: Applications for Precipitation and Global Weather

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Impacts of Inhomogeneous Underlying Surfaces on Convection Initiation and Organization I

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

This session will feature presentations aimed at understanding the fundamental mesoscale processes involved with interactions between inhomogeneous and/or contrasting surface conditions and convection initiation and convective organization. Specific topics solicited include (i) mesoscale processes along the coast, especially sea breezes/sea breeze interactions with convection initiation and organization; (ii) mesoscale processes associated with terrain, including contrasting mountainous and plains regions and their impact on convection; (iii) mesoscale processes associated with convection interactions with contrasting underlying land surfaces, including urban/rural, desert/oasis, forested/grassland, etc.; and (iv) field campaigns dedicated to observing these types of interactions. Studies involving numerical model simulations, observational datasets, and theory are all encouraged.

Friday, 21 July 2023

8:00 AM-3:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

8:00 AM-4:00 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Diurnal Cycle, Radiative Feedback, Clouds, and Organized Moist Convection

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Other Topics on Numerical Weather Prediction: Data Assimilation Experiments and Applications

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Other Topics on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Friday, 21 July 2023

AM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Circulations

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Other Topics on Numerical Weather Prediction III

Location: Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)

Other Topics on Weather Analysis and Forecasting: Weather Around the World

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:45 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

2:45 PM-3:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Impacts of Inhomogeneous Underlying Surfaces on Convection Initiation and Organization II

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

» Expand View

Session 20 Browse by Day

Sunday, 16 July 2023

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 16 July 2023

Monday, 17 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

10:15 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Tuesday, 18 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Wednesday, 19 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

9:00 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Thursday, 20 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Friday, 21 July 2023

8:00 AM-3:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

8:00 AM-4:00 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 21 July 2023

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Friday, 21 July 2023

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

1:30 PM-2:45 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

2:45 PM-3:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Sunday, 16 July 2023

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 16 July 2023

Monday, 17 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

10:15 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Tuesday, 18 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023