Exploring Probabilistic Guidance for Aviation Decision Making through the Aviation Weather Testbed

Effective utilization of probabilistic guidance to communicate hazardous weather information to decision makers is at the forefront of advancing National Weather Service (NWS) products and services. While the use of probabilistic information is becoming increasingly popular for communicating weather threats like winter storms and flooding to NWS partners and the public, it is just beginning to be explored for use in aviation planning.

Each year the Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT) holds an experiment where forecasters and partners from across the aviation weather enterprise are brought together to evaluate new products and forecasting techniques aimed at improving safety in the National Airspace System (NAS). This year's experiment is set to take place in May, and one of the three themes being explored is the utilization of probabilistic guidance to enhance the forecasting process and aid in decision making. The goal is to first determine how forecasters use probabilistic guidance to help develop an aviation hazard forecast beyond Day 1, and also to explore how probabilistic products can be used to better communicate aviation hazard information to decision makers.

Throughout the week-long experiment, participants will be tasked with developing probabilistic Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) graphics following recommendations from the 2019-2020 NOAA funded study led by Dr. Joseph Ripberger that investigated probabilistic communication efforts for weather events. Then, in conjunction with the concurrent Friends and Partners in Aviation Weather (FPAW) meeting, the AWT staff will lead focus group discussions with a variety of users and aviation stakeholders to gain insight on their understanding and potential utilization of probabilistic guidance and graphics. The focus groups will look at the IDSS graphics produced by the AWT participants (i.e. meteorologist-in-the-loop), as well as current AviationWeather.gov products that directly portray probabilistic information.

With the help of the FAA’s Aviation Weather Demonstration and Evaluation Services (AWDE), a group of social scientists and meteorologists that focus on user interpretation of aviation specific products, the AWT will gather feedback and recommendations on how to advance the use of probabilistic data for aviation decision making. This information will then be used to help develop new techniques, and identify guidance needs specific to aviation.

This presentation will discuss the experiment design, highlight some early results, and discuss the potential for future probabilistic products at the Aviation Weather Center.