Program: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)/20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes)

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Session 1

Meso to Subseasonal Scale Meteorological Phenomena I

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Daniel James Lloveras; Thomas Galarneau

8:30 AM

1.1

Forecasting the Forecast Skill: GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Victor A. Gensini, PhD, CCM, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL

1.2

Where'd That Come From? A Deeper Dive into Marginal U.S. Tornado Environments

9:00 AM

1.3

Rapid-Scan, Mobile Radar Observations of Tornadogenesis: Warning and Forecasting Implications

Jana B. Houser, PhD, The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and H. B. Bluestein, Z. B. Wienhoff, K. Thiem, and J. C. Snyder

9:15 AM

1.4

An Environment and Regime Based Approach to Large Hail Predictors

John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., MOUNT PLEASANT, MI; and C. J. Nixon, M. Kumjian, and M. Taszarek

9:30 AM

1.5

27-Year Climatology of Severe Wind-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States

Andrew Wade, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. J. Squitieri and I. L. Jirak

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Virtual Poster Session

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

V1

Simulations of Rising Thermals Using a Lagrangian Stochastic Closure for the Subgrid Turbulent Fluxes

Valerian Jewtoukoff, Univ. of Warsaw, Faculty of Physics, Poland, Warsaw, Poland; and G. C. Abade and M. Wacławczyk

V3

Climatological Characteristics of Hydrometeors in Precipitating Clouds over Eastern China and Their Relationship with Precipitation Based on ERA5 Reanalysis

Wenhua Gao, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 11, China

V4

Diurnal Off-Mountain Propagation of Rainfall and Low-Level Vertical Velocity over the Leeside of the Yungui Plateau: A Gravity Wave Mechanism

V5

The Generation of Two Episodes of High Winds by a Long-Lived Quasi-Linear Convection System in South China

Xin Xu, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, 32, China

Handout (565.9 kB)

V6

Study of the Dynamics and Upstream Track Deflection Associated with Typhoon Nepartak (2016) Passing over Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range

Richarde Graham II, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and S. M. S. KARIM and Y. L. Lin

V7

Intercomparison of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Mesoscale Kinetic Energy Resolved by the High-Resolution Global Reanalysis Datasets

Li Ziyi, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Zhuhai, Guangdong, China; and J. Wei, PhD, B. Xinghua, and Y. Q. Sun

Handout (2.4 MB)

V8

The Role of Precipitation and Convective Features on Tropical Cyclone Intensification Derived from 16-yr TRMM Observations

Xinxi Wang, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. Jiang and O. F. Guzman

Manuscript (86.1 kB)

Handout (966.2 kB) Handout (965.8 kB)

V9

Examining the Rainfall Asymmetries during the Landfalling Process of Tropical Cyclones Using 20-Year NASA IMERG Satellite Data

Oscar Fernando Guzman Rey, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

V10

Improving the Anticipation of Potential Tornado Intensity Across Different Time Scales

Michael Sessa, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and R. J. Trapp

Handout (249.3 kB)

V11

Hyperspectral IR Data Inversion from IASI and CrIS over the Arctic: Assimilating Retrievals in Clear Sky and Cloudy Conditions in Numerical Weather Models

V12

Extended Range Predictability of Severe Convective Storm Environments in Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12 Reforecasts

Andrew Berrington, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), Norman, OK; and K. A. Hoogewind and A. J. Clark

Handout (3.2 MB)

V14

Jua Vilhelm: A Novel End-to-End AI System for Global Weather Prediction

Marvin Vincent Gabler, Jua.ai AG, Pfäffikon, Switzerland; and J. Wuilloud, H. Taheri Shahraiyni, D. Neupert, A. Grigoryev, R. Almeida, G. Martin Hernandez, J. D. Daubinet, N. Ekhtiari, R. J. Song, P. Dudbridge, and E. Tarakci

Handout (8.5 MB)

V15

The Effect of Surface Roughness on Storm-Relative Helicity

Timothy A. Coleman, Severe Weather Institute - Radar and Lightning Laboratories, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

V16

Comparison of Arctic Cyclones in CESM2 Large Ensemble and ERA5

Madeline Clark Frank, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

V17

Implementation of Organized Convection Parameterization in the Met Office Unified Model

Zhixiao Zhang, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom; and M. Muetzelfeldt, H. Christensen, T. Woollings, R. Plant, A. Stirling, M. Whitall, and M. Moncrieff

V18

RaXPol Doppler-Radar Observations of Mesoscale Structures in Winter Storms in the Northeastern U. S. During IMPACTS 2022 and 2023

Howard B. Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Schvartzman, S. Emmerson, H. W. Hsu, G. Heymsfield, B. L. Cheong, T. Y. Yu, D. Sexton, and D. Feland

Handout (1.3 MB)

Queer Gatherings (QG) @ Madison

Location: Fair Trade Coffee House

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

AM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

NOAA Testbeds & Proving Grounds: Who We Are and How to Engage

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Cochairs: Louisa Bogar Nance; Stephanie J. Avey; Curtis R. Alexander

Session 2

Meso to Subseasonal Scale Meteorological Phenomena II

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Victor A. Gensini, PhD, CCM, CIMMS; Alexandra Anderson-Frey

11:15 AM

2.1

Climatology and Typologies of Mesoscale Windstorms Associated with High-Intensity Pressure Fall Phenomena

Anton Seimon, Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY; and J. H. Ruppert Jr. and L. F. Bosart

11:30 AM

2.2

An Investigation of Easterly Wind Lake-Effect and Lake-Enhanced Precipitation Events over the Western Lake Superior Region

Nicholas D. Metz, Hobart & William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and J. D. Sandstrom, J. M. Cordeira, and E. G. Hoffman

11:45 AM

2.3

Serial Clustering of Atmospheric Rivers: Climatology, Relevance for Precipitation, and Synoptic–Dynamic Characteristics

Benjamin J. Moore, NOAA, Boulder, CO

12:00 PM

2.4

Winter Extreme Precipitation Regimes (EPRs) in Eastern North America: Teleconnections, Rossby Wave Characteristics, and Case Study

Yeechian Low, McGill Univ., Montreal, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum

12:15 PM

2.5

Analysis of Amplified Northern Hemisphere Persistent Flow Regimes

Tyler C. Leicht, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

J3

Winter Storms: Advances in Forecasting I (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction)

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Sarah Perfater, NWS; Jason M. Cordeira

2:00 PM

J3.1

Innovations in Winter Storm Forecasting and Decision Support Services

David R. Novak, NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and S. Perfater

2:15 PM

J3.2

3D Characteristics of Snow Bands and Implications for Surface Snowfall in Northeast Winter Storms

Laura M Tomkins, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter and M. A. Miller

2:30 PM

J3.3

The Once-in-a-Generation Buffalo Blizzard and Lake Effect Event of December 23-26 2022

David A Zaff, NWS, Buffalo, NY

2:45 PM

J3.4

Regime-Dependent Predictability of Cold Season Precipitation Events in the St. Lawrence River Valley

Andrew C. Winters, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and N. P. Bassill, J. R. Gyakum, and J. R. Minder

3:00 PM

J3.5

Improving Cool-Season Snowfall Forecasts from Operational Modeling Systems over the Western Continental United States

Peter Veals, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh, M. Wessler, and M. D. Pletcher

3:15 PM

J3.6

Validation of Cool-Season Precipitation Forecasts at a High-Elevation Site in Utah's Little Cottonwood Canyon

Michael David Pletcher, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and P. Veals, M. Wessler, D. Church, K. J. Harnos, J. Correia Jr., R. Chase, and J. Steenburgh

AMS Student Engagement Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Session 4

Forecasting Tools and Techniques Across Weather Scales: Precipitation and Flooding

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Nicholas D. Metz; Jonathan J. Rutz, NWS

4:15 PM

4.1

Evaluation of Freezing Rain Local Storm Reports as a Verification Source

Adam David Werkema, Cooperative Institue for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO) at NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves and D. D. Tripp

4:30 PM

4.2

Utilizing Climatologies to Aid in the Issuance of the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook

Erica Bower, NOAA/NWS/WPC, College Park, MD; and J. A. Nelson Jr., M. Klein, M. Chenard, and M. J. Erickson

4:45 PM

4.3

Comparison of Hybrid 4DEnVar and 3DEnVar for the Prediction of Atmospheric Rivers

Minghua Zheng, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and B. Cornuelle, A. C. Subramanian, L. Delle Monache, and M. M. Ralph

5:00 PM

4.4

Ensemble Selection Strategies to Improve Precipitation Forecasts

Meng-Tze Lee, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. K. Yau, D. Jacques, F. Fabry, and I. zawadzki

5:15 PM

4.5

Use of the National Water Model Retrospective Analysis to Provide Context for Real-time Flood Forecasts Issued by the National Weather Service

Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan Univ., Mt. Pleasant, MI; and T. Turnage and A. Dixon

J4

Predictability Involving Multi-Scale Processes and Interactions

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Cochairs: Thomas Galarneau; Alexander Lojko

4:15 PM

JointJ4.1

Multi-Scale Interaction and Predictability of the Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Masashi Minamide, Univ. of Tokyo / JPL, Tokyo, Japan; and D. J. Posselt, PhD

4:30 PM

JointJ4.2

Error-Growth Dynamics in Idealized Midlatitude Cyclones with Different Moist Baroclinic Life Cycles

Daniel James Lloveras, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. R. Durran and J. D. Doyle

Handout (18.5 MB)

4:45 PM

JointJ4.3

An Object-Based Approach to Atmospheric Predictability

Falko Judt, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO

5:00 PM

JointJ4.4

An Analysis of the Predictability of Warm-Season Progressive Derechos Using Synoptic-Scale Composites and Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

Bruno Ribeiro, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and S. J. Weiss

5:15 PM

JointJ4.5

Investigating the Model Representation of Cloud Tops: Toward a Better Understanding of Overshoot Dynamics

Devin Bissell, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and G. L. Mullendore and C. J. Nowotarski

Welcome Reception

Location: Rooftop Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Session 5

Forecasting Tools and Techniques across Weather Scales: Probabilities and Bias

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Stephanie J. Avey; Daniel James Lloveras

8:30 AM

5.1

Forecast Products Based on the 200-Member West-WRF Ensemble: A CW3E and NWS Western Region Collaborative Effort

Jonathan J. Rutz, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and B. Kawzenuk, L. Delle Monache, D. F. Steinhoff, M. Simpson, J. F. Kalansky, M. E. Jeglum, and J. Suk

Handout (12.6 MB)

8:45 AM

5.2

Dynamic Ensemble-Based Scenarios for IDSS (DESI): A New Decision Support Tool for Fast and Meaningful Interrogation of Ensemble-Based Numerical Weather Data

Travis Wilson, GSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Q. Stewart, D. D. Nietfeld, R. Howlett, C. Kahler, J. T. Radford, K. J. Harnos, K. Anderson, and C. Vaughn

9:00 AM

5.3

An Introduction to the "Ken's 10" NWS Initiative: Probabilistic Impact-based Decision Support Services

Kathryn K. Gilbert, NWS, College Park, MD; and R. Bandy, G. Cooper, PhD, S. B. Smith, J. S. Waldstreicher, A. Boxell, A. Foster, J. J. Brost, J. Fox, M. E. Jeglum, J. S. Lee, D. E. Levin, G. Mann, M. J. Moreland, S. Perfater, K. Scharfenberg, B. Smith, D. C. Strom, and D. R. Vallee

9:15 AM

5.4

Assessing Training and Competency Requirements in the Probabilistic Forecasting Era

Kevin Scharfenberg, NWS, Boulder, CO; and B. Smith, J. K. Jordan, B. Motta, B. Rozumalski, and A. Boxell

9:30 AM

5.5

The Use of METplus to Inform Forecasters of Model Biases and Forecast Consistencies for Phenomena at Different Scales

Tara L. Jensen, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and T. J. Hertneky, M. R. Green, M. J. Erickson, B. Veenhuis, J. Opatz, J. Hicks, and C. P. Kalb

Poster Viewing and Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Tuesday Poster Session

Location: Hall of Ideas (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

1

Mesoscale Convective System Parameterization for Global Climate Models

Mitchell William Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Richter and C. C. Chen

2

Utilization of Novel Observational Platforms and Numerical Weather Prediction Tools to Facilitate Prediction, Detection, and Warning Strategies for Meteotsunami Events within the Laurentian Great Lakes

Bryan Mroczka, NOAA, Ann Arbor, MI

3

Intraseasonal Variability of Recurving EPAC Tropical Cyclones

Alexander Kyle Mitchell, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

4

Causes of Differences in Depiction of Convective Lines in 1-km and 3-km CM1 Simulations

Samuel Luthi, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA

5

The Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information Project (AQPI)

Jonathan J. Rutz, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and D. Roberts, V. Chandra, R. Cifelli, J. F. Kalansky, and J. Jasperse

Handout (2.1 MB)

6

The Total Water Uniform PDF in Ice Nucleation

Ruiyu Sun, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Ellicott City, MD; IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Ellicott City, MD; and F. Yang

7

Impacts of Moisture on the Organizational Modes of Mesoscale Convective Systems Associated with Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall

Zhiyong Meng, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and S. Li

8

The Marshall Fire of 30 December 2021: The Operational Utility of HRRR Forecasts for a Wildfire Resulting from a Perfect Storm of Climate, Mesoscale and Urban/Open Space Factor

Edward J. Szoke, CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, E. P. James, P. T. Schlatter, and J. M. Brown

9

Linear Mountain Waves Past a Mountain Range with Concavity and Convexity

Kazuo Saito, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Univ. of Tokyo, kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan

Handout (1.7 MB)

10

A Multi-Scale Study of the 23 October 2022 Southern England QLCS

Kenneth L. Pryor, PhD, NESDIS, College Park, MD; and D. Smart, D. Flack, and M. Clark

Manuscript (6.4 MB)

Handout (23.9 MB) Handout (4.0 MB)

11

The Vertical and Horizontal Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems on a Temporal Scale

Michell Tinoco-Morales, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

Handout (2.0 MB)

12

The Role of North American Convective Storms on Jet Stream Dynamics: A Negative Potential Vorticity Perspective

Alexander Lojko, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and A. C. Winters, C. Jablonowski, and A. E. Payne

Handout (2.6 MB)

13

Changes in Seasonal Occurrence and Interannual Variability of Tornado Outbreaks

Matthew Graber, Univ. of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL; and R. J. Trapp and Z. Wang

14

Numerical Simulations of Three Downslope Windstorm Cases in Korea under the Different Synoptic-Scale Conditions

Yewon Shin, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, South korea; and J. H. Kim

15

Cold-Season Embedded Orographic Convection and Its Impact on Precipitation: An Observational and Modeling Case Study

Bart nmn Geerts, Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY

16

Identification of Mesovortexgenesis Mechanisms in QLCSs using PERiLS Radar Data

Sean Donald Melanson, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker, K. A. Kosiba, S. W. Nesbitt, R. J. Trapp, and J. Wurman

Handout (1.7 MB)

17

Evaluating the CAPE-Shear Parameter Space of Southeastern US QLCS Environments

Zachary Andrew Chalmers, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker, K. A. Kosiba, S. W. Nesbitt, R. J. Trapp, and J. Wurman

18

Dynamics of Orographic and Thermal Forcing on the Environment Conducive to the Formation of the Tubbs Fire (2017)

Jackson Tyler Wiles, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and M. L. Kaplan and Y. L. Lin

19

Examining the Sensitivity of Simulated Midlatitude and Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems to Horizontal Grid Spacing

Manda B. Chasteen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. F. Prein, D. Wang, and M. Ge

20

Characteristics of Observed Surface Pressure Waves (Gravity Waves) in the Contexts of Storm Structure and Reflectivity Features

Luke Robert Allen, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter, M. A. Miller, and L. M. Tomkins

21

Size Spectra and Controls on Mesoscale Convective Systems: Evidence from East Atlantic NASA CPEX-CV Program

Edward J. Zipser, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. Rajagopal, A. K. Rowe, N. Sakaeda, and R. Rios-Berrios

22

C³IEL, The Cluster for Cloud Evolution Climate and Lightning Mission to Study Convective Clouds at High Spatial And Temporal Resolution

Céline Cornet, Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique, CNRS/Université de Lille, Villeneuve d'Ascq, 59, France; and D. Rosenfeld, E. Defer, A. Deschamps, C. Price, and D. Ricard

23

Structures of Cold Pools from PERiLS 2022 & 2023

Miranda Kaylene Silcott, North Carolina State Univ., Garner, NC; North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker, K. A. Kosiba, S. W. Nesbitt, R. J. Trapp, and J. Wurman

24

Environmental Conditions Controlling the Morphology of Shallow Orographic Convection

Jialin Liu, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. J. Kirshbaum

Handout (873.1 kB)

25

Numerical Simulations of Near-Cloud Turbulence in the Upper-Level Outflows of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Juheon Lee, Seoul National Univ., Seoul , 41, South korea; and J. H. Kim

26

MCS:PRIME - Environmental Precursors to Mesoscale Convective Systems

Mark Robert Muetzelfeldt, Univ. of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and R. S. Plant, Z. Zhang, H. Christensen, and T. Woollings

28

Dynamical Processes Perturbing Right-Moving Supercell Storm Motions

Nicholas Goldacker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC

29

Lifetimes of Overshooting Convective Events Using High-Frequency Gridded Radar Composites

Daniel Jellis, Texas A&M Univ., Bryan, TX; and K. Bowman and A. D. Rapp

30

Modeling Study of Serve Downslope Winds during the Grassland Fire of Marshall, Colorado

Nicholas Golden, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and J. Zhang

31

Evaluation of the Evolution of Severe Storm Environments through Use of the Lapse Rate Tendency Equation

Alan Garcia Rosales, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and J. T. Allen

32

Observations of Convectively Generated Gravity Waves within the Stratiform Region of Mesoscale Convective Systems

Hannah Vagasky, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA; and R. D. Adams-Selin, C. Evans, and D. V. Blount

Handout (3.7 MB)

33

Entrainment Makes Pollution More Likely to Weaken Deep Convective Updrafts Than Invigorate Them

John M Peters, Penn State Univ., State College, PA; and Z. Lebo, D. R. Chavas, and C. Y. Su

34

Vertically-Pointing Radar Observations of Convective Updrafts and Downdrafts Associated with Cool-Season QLCSs over Northern Alabama

Melissa Gonzalez-Fuentes, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL

Handout (5.6 MB)

35

An Empirical Examination of the Environmental Factors That Regulated Thunderstorm Longevity on 22 May 2019 in Oklahoma

Kyle Pittman, Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

36

The Rain-Induced Boundary Layer Transition in Quasi-Linear Convective Systems

Matthew Starke, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

37

On the Detection of Averaged Intensity for Wave Patterns/Tropical Cyclones Under Different ISO Propagation Routes over the East Asian Monsoon Region

Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan

38

Linking Stratospheric Polar Vortex Geometries with S2S Forecasting

Elena Fernandez, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. A. L. Lang

Session 6

Forecasting Tools and Techniques Across Weather Scales: Severe/Fire

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Stephanie J. Avey; Jack Lind, CIRA/AWC

11:15 AM

6.1

Elevated Convection: Radar Signatures and Observations Associated with Gravity Wave-Breaking Damaging Winds

Brett Borchardt, NOAA/NWS, Romeoville, IL; and K. Sherburn and R. S. Schumacher

11:30 AM

6.2

Extension of WoFs-Smoke to Ingest GOES-R Fire Radiative Power Retrievals

Thomas A. Jones, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High Impact Weather Research and Operations, Norman, OK; and R. Ahmadov and E. P. James

11:45 AM

6.3

A High-Impact Weather Identification and Visualization Product for the Operational and Client Service Meteorologists in Canada

Quanzhen Geng, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. Mo and D. Brown

12:00 PM

6.4

An Hourly Wildfire Potential Index for Predicting Short-Range Fire Activity Based on Rapidly-Updating Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts

Eric P. James, GSD, Boulder, CO; and R. Ahmadov, J. Romero-Alvarez, G. A. Grell, and I. A. Csiszar

12:15 PM

6.5

Conditional Intensity Estimation of Tornadoes using Environmental Parameters

Israel L. Jirak, SPC, Norman, OK; and J. Vancil, J. Picca, R. S. Schneider, P. T. Marsh, and W. Bunting

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

J7

Winter Storms: Advances in Forecasting II (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction)

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Andrew C. Winters; Peter Veals

2:00 PM

JointJ7.1

High-impact Observations for Enhancing Great Lakes Snowfall Forecasting

Claire Pettersen, University of Michigan, MADISON, WI; and S. W. Nesbitt, M. S. Kulie, J. Lenters, J. R. Richter, and M. R. Peters

2:15 PM

JointJ7.2

Challenges with Winter Weather Products in the National Weather Service National Blend of Models

Adam D. Schnapp, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack, R. James, S. Perfater, and G. Manikin

2:30 PM

JointJ7.3

Combining Radar and NWP to Build a Snow Rate AI Algorithm

Andrew A. Rosenow, PhD, CIWRO - Cooperative Institute for Severe and High Impact Weather Research and Operations, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves

2:45 PM

JointJ7.4

Unifying and Simplifying Winter Precipitation Accumulations in NCEP Models

Geoffrey Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. J. Levit, H. Y. Chuang, E. A. Aligo, M. J. Barlage, F. Yang, and J. Meng

3:00 PM

JointJ7.5

Simulating the Transition From Freezing Rain to Ice Pellets: The Role of Secondary Ice Production During WINTRE-MIX IOP4

Bin Han, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. R. Minder

3:15 PM

JointJ7.6

P-type Processes and Predictability: A Case Study from the Winter Precipitation Type Research Multiscale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX)

Justin R Minder, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and N. P. Bassill, F. Fabry, J. R. French, K. Friedrich, I. Gultepe, J. R. Gyakum, K. A. Kosiba, M. Lachapelle, D. Michelson, L. Nichman, C. Nguyen, J. M. Thériault, A. C. Winters, M. Wolde, and J. Wurman

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Session 8

Advances Facilitated By New Observational Platforms and Capabilities

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Chair: Clark Evans, UW-Milwaukee

CoChair: Matthew R. Beitscher, MS, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center

4:15 PM

8.1

MAPNet (Mobile Atmospheric Profiling Network): Updates and Research Applications

Kevin Knupp, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and L. D. Carey, R. A. Wade, P. Pangle, and D. Phillips

4:30 PM

8.2

Optimizing Numerical Weather Prediction Utility of the Maryland Mesonet with Observing System Simulation Experiments

Joshua Eric McCurry, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, Gaithersburg, MD; and J. Poterjoy, M. J. Molina, and A. Ruiz-Barradas

4:45 PM

8.3

Using WSR-88D Observations to Detect Convective Boundary Layer Depth

David J. Stensrud, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. L. Comer, B. Stouffer, M. Kumjian, and Y. Zhang, PhD

5:00 PM

8.4

A Targeted Sounding and LiDAR Retrieved Wind Analysis of the 26 February 2023 Norman, OK Tornado

Madeline Diedrichsen, CIWRO, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio, E. Rasmussen, and S. M. Waugh

8.5

An Explicit Microphysical and Electrical Charging Model to Study the Effects of Changing Aerosol Composition on the Electric Field and Lightning Distribution

Coriolis EDIB Reception

Location: Rooftop Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

J9

Predictability of Arctic Cyclones I

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

CoChair: Steven Cavallo, University of Oklahoma

8:30 AM

JointJ9.1

Sensitivity and Predictability of Mesoscale Polar Lows

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. A. Biernat

Handout (7.5 MB)

8:45 AM

JointJ9.2

Sensitivity of an August 2022 Arctic Cyclone to Sea Ice and Ocean Representation in Polar WRF

Kyle K. Ahern, SUNY, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

9:00 AM

JointJ9.3

Coupled Simulations of a Wintertime Arctic Cyclone with Significant Surface Impacts Observed During MOSAiC

Ola Persson, CIRES and NSIDC, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. B. Solomon, J. Hutchings, D. Watkins, J. Haapala, G. Svensson, and T. Stanton

9:15 AM

JointJ9.4

Comparing the Predictability of Arctic and Atlantic Basin Cyclones Using Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis of MPAS Forecasts

Peyton K. Capute, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

9:30 AM

JointJ9.5

Investigating Arctic Cyclone-Tropopause Polar Vortex Interactions with Observing System Simulation Experiments

Matthew Bray, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo

Session 9

Other Topics on Weather Analysis and Forecasting: Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Tomer Burg; Jeffrey D. Duda

9:00 AM

9.3

Quantifying Impacts of Environmental Moisture Spatial Patterns on Tropical Cyclones Via Observational Datasets

Kimberly M. Wood, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS; and K. Berislavich, S. E. Zick, K. Addington, and C. J. Matyas

9:15 AM

9.5

Assessing Model Guidance for Hurricane Ian

Logan C. Dawson, EMC, College Park, MD; and A. M. Bentley and G. S. Manikin

9.1

Thermodynamics of Overland Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in Weakly/Non-Baroclinic Environments

9.2

Predictability of the Overland Reintensification of North Atlantic Tropical Storm Erin (2007)

9.4

Evaluation of GFDL and Thompson microphysics using the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) model

Poster Viewing and Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Wednesday Poster Session

Location: Hall of Ideas (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

39

The Plan for the All-Sky Radiance Assimilation over Land in the NCEP Global Model

Azadeh Gholoubi, EMC, College Park, MD; and H. E. Liu, A. Collard, and D. T. Kleist

40

Physically Explainable Deep Learning for Convection Initiation Nowcasts

Da Fan, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. J. Greybush and D. J. Gagne II, Ph.D.

41

A Deep Learning Approach to Severe Weather Subseasonal Forecasting Over the United States

Maria M. Madsen, AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES), Norman, OK

Handout (2.6 MB)

42

Extended Range Machine-Learning Severe Weather Guidance Based on the Operational GEFS

Adam J. Clark, NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Hill, K. A. Hoogewind, A. Berrington, and E. D. Loken

43

An Evaluation of a Convolutional Neural Network for Classifying Images from In-situ Cloud Probes

Marwa Majdi, Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and D. Delene and C. Nairy

Handout (527.0 kB)

44

Objectively Assessing Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Organization in an Operational Convection Permitting Model

Ewan Short, Univ. of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; and T. Lane

Handout (3.3 MB)

45

Preliminary Evaluation of Real-Time, 8-Day, Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts over the Conterminous United States

Craig Schwartz, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Sobash, L. M. Harris, K. Y. Cheng, M. Morin, and L. Zhou

46

Comparing Storm Environments and Forecast Performance in the HRRR, RRFS, and the NSSL MPAS Models

Corey K. Potvin, NSSL, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, M. G. Duda, T. A. Jones, K. H. Knopfmeier, E. Mansell, L. J. Reames, W. Skamarock, Y. Wang, L. J. Wicker, and N. Yussouf

Handout (1.9 MB)

47

The Impact on Simulated Bow Echoes of Changing Grid Spacing from 3 km to 1 km in WRF

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ., AMES, IA; and D. J. Dodson

48

Validation of Offshore Winds in the ERA5 Reanalysis and HRRR Model Using Two Floating LIDARS South of Long Island, NY

Christopher Fragano, SUNY at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and J. M. Freedman

Handout (1.6 MB)

49

Examination of False Alarm and Missed Mesoscale Convective Systems Predicted by the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model

Sam Ritter, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and N. Sonntag and W. A. Gallus Jr.

50

Regime Dependence of Predictability of Springtime Medium-Range Severe Weather over CONUS within Two GEFS Reforecast Ensembles

51

Towards Defining the Elevated Convection Problem

52

Census of Valley and Mountain Profiling Radar Characteristics during Winter Storms along Utah's Wasatch Front

Ashley Nicole Evans, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and P. Veals, M. L. Wasserstein, and J. Steenburgh

53

Impact of Assimilating WSR-88D Radar Observations on Snowband Prediction within the Comma Head of Northeast U.S. Cyclone

Keenan Fryer, Spire Global, Boulder, CO; and B. A. Colle

54

Examining Vertical Velocities in the Dendritic Growth Zones of WRF Simulations of High Impact East Coast Winter Storms

Jacob D. Hair, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. J. Greybush, Y. Zhang, PhD, and M. Kumjian

Handout (6.6 MB)

55

Characteristics of Lake-Effect Precipitation over the Black River Valley and Western Adirondack Mountains

Jim Steenburgh, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. A. Cunningham, P. Bergmaier, B. N. Geerts, and P. Veals

56

Observations of Arctic Cyclones and their Interactions with Clouds and Sea Ice during THINICE

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and G. Riviere, J. Delanoë, and J. Methven

Handout (7.3 MB)

57

Using Airborne Measurements to Evaluate HRRR Forecasts of Freezing Drizzle Aloft: Results from the WINTRE-MIX Field Campaign

Megan Rebecca Schiede, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and J. R. Minder

58

Synoptic-Scale Predictability of Two Near-Freezing Precipitation Events during the WINTRE-MIX Field Campaign

Clairisse Alison Reiher, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. C. Winters

59

Contributing Factors to Simulated Vertical Structure of Microscale Features in the Snake River Plain

Joseph Edward Wermter, SRNL= Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC; and S. R. Chiswell

60

The Development and Testing of a Bias Correction Algorithm for Mesonet Wind Observations in 3D-RTMA

Matthew Thomas Morris, SAIC @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and R. J. Purser, M. Pondeca, E. Colon, G. Zhao, A. M. Gibbs, and J. R. Carley

61

Impact of Assimilating New York Stat MesoNet and Two Offshore LiDARs on Modeling the New York Bight Jet

Nicholas M. Leonardo, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, MA; and B. A. Colle and J. M. Freedman

62

A Review and Analysis of the Addition of TAC and High Resolution BUFR Format Sonde Data and GPS Information to EMC's Observations Processing

Nicholas R. Esposito, SAIC @ NOAA NWS NCEP EMC, College Park, MD; NOAA, College Park, MD; and A. Collard, I. Genkova, C. Hill, D. T. Kleist, and D. Merkova

63

The Possible Wind Effect on the Travelling Speed and Collisional Breakup of Raindrops in the Near-Surface of Landfalling Typhoons

64

The Use of METplus in Testbeds for Research to Operations Activities

Tara L. Jensen, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and J. Opatz, T. J. Hertneky, M. A. Harrold, K. M. Newman, W. Mayfield, C. P. Kalb, J. Beck, W. Li, L. Pan, M. Zhang, L. B. Nance, M. B. Ek, M. Smith, and J. L. Vigh

65

Assessment of RRFS Based Cloud Forecasts at the Aviation Weather Testbed

Robert M. Hepper, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and A. E. Cross, S. J. Avey, T. A. Higginbotham, and A. P. Korner

Handout (5.6 MB)

66

FV3-LAM Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts and Ensemble Consensus Products for the 13th HMT Winter Weather Experiment

Phillip Spencer, CAPS, Norman, OK; and K. A. Brewster

Handout (2.0 MB)

67

Formulation and Evaluation of a Calibrated Tornado Forecast Guidance Ensemble

David E. Jahn, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations and Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. T. Smith, I. L. Jirak, C. Karstens, E. D. Loken, B. T. Gallo, and T. A. Supinie

Manuscript (878.6 kB)

68

An Initial Assessment of Environmental Influences on QLCS-tornadogenesis from PERiLS Field Campaign Datasets and High-Resolution Simulations

Aaron J. Hill, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. Dowell and C. C. Weiss

69

Quase-Linear Convective Systems Over Complex Terrain in South of Brazil

William Coelho, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil; and D. L. HERDIES and L. Nolasco

70

The Impacts of Assimilating Aeolus Horizontal Line-of-Sight Winds on Numerical Predictions of Hurricane Ida (2021) and a Mesoscale Convective System over the Atlantic Ocean

Chengfeng Feng, The Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

71

Resolved Convection Improves the Representation of Equatorial Waves and Tropical Rainfall Variability in a Global Nonhydrostatic Model

Falko Judt, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO

Climate and Covid 19 challenges on rice farming in Ikwo, Ebonyi state Nigeria

72

Application of Adjoint-Derived Ensemble for Tropical Cyclones Rapid Intensification

Zoe A. Zibton, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

73

Rainfall Distribution And Extreme Flash Floods in Semi-Arid Region of El Paso, Texas

Nakul Nitin Karle, PhD, NCAS-M, Beltsville, MD; Howard Univ., Washington, DC; and S. Chiao, J. Laney, J. Barham, and G. Lundeen

74

The Mesoscale Meteorology of the June 2021 Northwest Heatwave

Clifford F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Ovens

75

Update on the Use of WRF TKE Profiles in SCIPUFF Dipole Pride 26 Field Test Comparison

David R. Stauffer, Xator Corporation, a Parsons Company, State College, PA

76

Got Code ? Join the UFS Community !

Hendrik L. Tolman, Dr. Ir., NOAA, Silver Spring, MD

Session 10

R2O and R2O2R Activities and Testing (e.g., testbeds)

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Jack Lind, CIRA/AWC; Austin A. Coleman, Texas Tech University

11:15 AM

10.1

An Overview of the 1st Hybrid NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment in 2023

Adam J. Clark, NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, T. A. Supinie, J. Vancil, D. E. Jahn, K. H. Knopfmeier, P. Heinselman, P. Skinner, P. C. Burke, K. A. Hoogewind, J. Martin, M. L. Flora, B. C. Matilla, M. Krocak, A. L. Brannan, C. Karstens, E. D. Loken, N. A. Dahl, D. R. Harrison, D. A. Imy, A. Wade, J. Milne, and J. Picca

11:30 AM

10.2

Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System during the 2023 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Jacob Vancil, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak

Manuscript (989.0 kB)

11:45 AM

10.3

Exploring Probabilistic Guidance for Aviation Decision Making through the Aviation Weather Testbed

Stephanie J. Avey, ; and A. E. Cross, A. Korner, and J. Lind

12:00 PM

10.4

Better Utilization of Ensembles in Operations Through Clustering: An R2O Success Story

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. A. Nelson Jr., A. A. Coleman, W. Lamberson, and T. Wilson

12:15 PM

10.5

Updates and Additions to the Prototype NWS Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) Travel

Dana Tobin, CU/CIRES and NOAA/NWS/WPC, College Park, MD; and J. Kastman and J. A. Nelson Jr.

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Session 11

Forecasting of Extreme Precipitation Events: Atmospheric Rivers

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Joe Koval, Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques Research Group; Jason M. Cordeira

2:00 PM

11.1

Atmospheric River Reconnaissance in Water Year 2023 – A Research and Operations Partnership

Anna M. Wilson, SIO, Durham, NC; and M. M. Ralph, V. S. Tallapragada, C. Davis, L. Delle Monache, J. D. Doyle, F. Pappenberger, C. A. Reynolds, A. C. Subramanian, D. Lavers, L. Centurioni, J. S. Haase, B. Cao, J. M. Cordeira, B. Kawzenuk, E. Knappe, A. Lundry, A. C. Michaelis, R. Rickert, S. C. Roj, J. J. Rutz, R. D. Torn, X. Wu, and M. Zheng

2:15 PM

11.2

Near-Real-Time Data Impact Studies for Extreme Precipitation Events during Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Program using NCEP Operational Global Forecast System

Vijay S. Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD; and X. Wu and M. M. Ralph

2:30 PM

11.3

Application of Ensemble Sensitivity during the 2022/2023 AR-Recon Season

Ryan D. Torn, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

2:45 PM

11.4

Evaluation of Weather Forecast Errors during Major Atmospheric River Sequences Impacting California during Winter 2022-2023

Rachel R. Weihs, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, San Diego, CA; and S. C. Roj, L. DeHaan, N. R. Mascioli, D. Reynolds, J. M. Cordeira, C. Grudzien, D. F. Steinhoff, L. Delle Monache, and M. M. Ralph

3:00 PM

11.5

Drought-Alleviating Heavy Precipitation in California During Winter 2022–2023

Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

3:15 PM

11.6

An Overview of a Heavy Precipitation Event over California in October 2021: Roles of an Extreme Atmospheric River and Explosive Extratropical Cyclone

Clinton Alden, Univ. of California San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA; and M. Zheng, M. M. Ralph, Z. Zhang, and L. Delle Monache

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Session 12

Forecasting of Extreme Precipitation Events II

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Nicholas D. Metz; Anna M. Wilson

4:15 PM

12.1

The NOAA Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge: Advancing Predictions of Extreme Rainfall

David R. Novak, NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD

4:30 PM

12.2

Characterizing Warm-Season Extreme Precipitation in the HREF Means

Diana Rose Stovern, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Bytheway, K. M. Mahoney, B. J. Moore, S. M. Trojniak, J. Correia Jr., and M. R. Abel

4:45 PM

12.3

Characterizing Extreme Precipitation in HREF Individual Ensemble Members

Janice L. Bytheway, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and D. R. Stovern, K. M. Mahoney, J. Correia Jr., S. M. Trojniak, B. J. Moore, and M. R. Abel

5:00 PM

12.4

Evaluation of Model Guidance for Two High-Impact Flooding Events in July 2022

Marcel G. Caron, SAIC, College Park, MD; and L. C. Dawson and G. Manikin

12.5

Interconnections between SST and Extreme Rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea

Session

AMS Student Engagement Social Hour

Location: Rooftop Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

J13

Winter Storms: Effects of Extreme Temperature Outbreaks

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Andrew A. Rosenow, PhD; Steven J. Greybush

8:30 AM

JointJ13.1

An Analysis of the Predictability of the February 2021 Cold Air Outbreak at S2S Timescales

Grace Elizabeth Dines, SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY

8:45 AM

JointJ13.2

A Space-Based Analysis of North Atlantic Snowfall and Clouds during Marine Cold-Air Outbreaks

Marian Mateling, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, MADISON, WI; Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and C. Pettersen, M. S. Kulie, and T. S. L'Ecuyer

9:00 AM

JointJ13.3

Direct and Indirect Relationships Between Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in Colorado

Xun Zou, Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and J. M. Cordeira, S. B. BATTULA, J. J. Rutz, and Z. Zhang

9:15 AM

JointJ13.4

Climatological Perspective and Synoptic Analysis of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in California During December 2022 and January 2023

Jason M. Cordeira, UCSD/SIO/CW3E, La Jolla, CA; and S. M. Bartlett, L. F. Bosart, C. Castellano, A. Cobb, C. W. Hecht, T. Y. HSU, J. F. Kalansky, B. Kawzenuk, T. C. Leicht, A. K. Mitchell, B. J. Moore, D. L. Nash, M. M. Ralph, and X. zou

9:30 AM

JointJ13.5

Cold-Season Subtropical Air Mass Intrusions into North American Extratropical Latitudes: Dynamic and Thermodynamic Impacts on Extreme Precipitation

John Richard Gyakum, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada

Poster Viewing and Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Thursday Poster Session

Location: Hall of Ideas (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes )

77

A Numerical Study of Hurricane Maria 2017 Using a Fast Version Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Jiali Wang, ANL, Lemont, IL; and G. Sever, C. Jung, W. J. Pringle, and R. Kotamarthi

78

Development of an Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Metric for Tropical Cyclone Hazard Forecasts

Melissa Piper, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

79

Effect of Northward Ageostrophic Winds Associated with a Tropical Cyclone on PRE Rainfall Enhancement

Kazuo Saito, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Univ. of Tokyo, kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; and T. Matsunobu and T. Oizumi

Handout (2.2 MB)

80

Analysis on the Track Deflection of Hurricane Florence (2018) Using HWRF Modeling and Vorticity Budget Analysis

Lela Shumpert, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and L. Liu and Y. L. Lin

Manuscript (3.0 MB)

81

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Onset Using an Adjoint Model

Zoe A. Zibton, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

82

Examining Tropical Cyclone Rainbands as Detected by Ground- and Space-Based Radars

Corene J. Matyas, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and Z. S. Ali, K. Wood, and S. E. Zick

Manuscript (922.4 kB)

83

Evaluation of the GPM IMERG Precipitation Products Using Rain Gauge Network Dataset over the Tibetan Plateau

Yuanchun Zhang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, Beijing, Beijing, China; and Y. Huang and J. Sun

84

Impact of Frontal Boundaries on Tornadogenesis Associated with Landfalling Hurricanes

85

Kinematic Modeling Study of the Re-Organization of Snowfall Beneath Cloud-Top Generating Cells in Midlatitude Cyclones

Andrew Janiszeski, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and R. M. Rauber, B. Jewett, G. M. McFarquhar, T. J. Zaremba, and J. E. Yorks

86

A Preliminary Assessment of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model’s Ability to Predict the Great Lakes Lake-Breeze Front and Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Collin DeYoung, Univ. of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

87

Simulation of Surface Mesovortices Formation and Maintenance in the St. Louis Metropolitan Area

88

Examining Multi-Scale Atmospheric Processes and Land-Atmosphere Interactions Associated with Drought over the Western U.S. in 2021-2022

Michael John Pye, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

89

Idealized Simulations of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Response to Varying Coastal Land Surface Properties

Peter M Finocchio, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. A. Biernat and J. D. Doyle

90

Effects of Land Surface Type on Sea-Breeze Convection in the Houston Area

Benjamin David Ascher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. M. Saleeby, P. J. Marinescu, and S. C. Van Den Heever

91

Environmental Conditions, Evolution and Mechanisms of the EF4 Tornado in Kaiyuan of Liaoning Province on 3 July 2019

Yongguang Zheng Sr., National Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, Beijing, China; and Y. Lan

Manuscript (1.0 MB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

92

Satellite Radiance Data Assimilation in the NOAA’s Next Generation Regional Model - Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS)

Xiaoyan Zhang, EMC, College Park, MD; SAIC @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and T. lei, S. Liu, H. Lin, and J. R. Carley

93

Evolution of Multiband Structures Within the 16 February 2023 Midwest Cyclone During the IMPACTS Field Campaign

Phillip Yeh, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

94

Precipitation Growth Processes in the Comma Head Region of the 7 February 2020 Northeast Snowstorm: Results from IMPACTS

Troy Justin Zaremba, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Varcie, R. M. Rauber, G. M. McFarquhar, J. Finlon, L. McMurdie, A. V. Ryzhkov, M. Schnaiter, E. Järvinen, F. Waitz, D. J. Delene, M. Poellot, and A. Janiszeski

96

A Multi-Probe Automated Classification of Ice Crystal Habits During the IMPACTS Campaign

Julian Christopher Schima, CIWRO, Norman, OK; and G. M. McFarquhar, D. Delene, A. J. Heymsfield, A. Bansemer, M. Schnaiter, J. Finlon, E. Järvinen, and F. Waitz

97

Mesoscale Processes Leading to Warm Sector Convection Initiation During the 27 April 2011 Afternoon Supercell Outbreak

Manda B. Chasteen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno, S. E. Koch, and G. S. Romine

98

An Examination of Tornadogenesis during the 01 January 2022 Triana, Alabama Tornado

Zebulon W. Leffler, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL

99

Using Machine Learning to Predict Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Skill: Evaluation with the NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System

Corey K. Potvin, NSSL, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Flora, P. S. Skinner, A. E. Reinhart, and B. C. Matilla

Handout (1.4 MB)

100

Analysis of Uncertainty in Location and Motion Information in Tornado Warnings

Kevin Ash, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. M. Feemster, C. L. Williams, J. Boehnert, J. L. Demuth, D. J. Gagne II, Ph.D., R. E. Morss, O. Wilhelmi, F. Bowser, M. Bunkers, C. Karstens, J. G. LaDue, and D. D. Nietfeld

101

Geospatial Analysis of Tornado Path Locations within and Near Storm-Based Tornado Warnings

Caley Feemster, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL

102

Effects of Terrain and Land Cover on Radar-Observed 3-Dimensional Tornado Wind Fields

Jana B. Houser, PhD, The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and B. Price, H. B. Bluestein, K. A. Kosiba, Z. B. Wienhoff, and J. Wurman

103

A Virtual Workshop Involving College Students to Explore the Relative Role of Visualization and Stakeholder Interaction on Risk Perception

Josef Moses, Stony Brook Univ., North Babylon, NY; Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, J. R. Hathaway, E. Bojsza, S. S. Davis, K. E. Rowan, A. Hills, E. C. Duesterhoeft, S. Boorboor, A. E. Kaufman, and S. E. Brennan

Poster 104 is now Paper 17.5A

105

Factors Contributing to the Offshore Propagation of Coastal Rainfall over Western Africa As Deduced from CPEX-CV Observations

Rosimar Rios-Berrios, ; and K. M. Nunez-Ocasio, S. N. Wu, N. Sakaeda, and E. R. Martin

106

Towards an Updated Climatology of Overland Tropical Cyclone Maintenance and Intensification in Non-/Weakly Baroclinic Environments

Andrew O. Hickok, Univ. of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and M. P. Vossen and C. Evans

107

A Climatology of Mesoscale Airmasses with High Theta-e Across the Continental United States

Charles Kropiewnicki, Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln, Mullica Hill, NJ; Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston and J. M. Keeler

108

Understanding the Clustering of Proximity Sounding Profiles and Sounding Derived Parameters for Near-Storm Environments

Zhanxiang Hua, Univ. of Washington Seattle, Seattle, WA; and A. Anderson-Frey

109

Synoptic Control on the Initiation and Upscale Growth of Warm-season MCSs over the South China Coast

Chenli Wang, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and X. Chen, K. zhao, and C. H. Peng

Handout (571.4 kB)

110

Using an Ensemble Prediction System to Evaluate the Factors Influencing the Stationary Behavior of a Landfalling Atmospheric River over Central California

Ivan Leonel Fontanez, SUNY, Aguas Buenas, PR; and R. D. Torn

111

Contribution of Atmospheric Rivers to Seasonal Precipitation in the US Intermountain West

Divya Rea, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL; and R. M. Rauber

113

Spatiotemporal Variability in Convective Cells and their Thermodynamic and Aerosol Environments during TRACER

Milind Sharma, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and C. Nowotarski, A. D. Rapp, S. D. Brooks, S. Thompson, and B. Chen

114

Sensitivity of Weather Forecasts to Soil Moisture Perturbations in Coastal Regions

Kevin A. Biernat, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Finocchio and J. D. Doyle

115

Sensitivity Experiments of Gravity Wave Drag Parameterizations for Unified Forecast Systems (UFS)

Song You Hong, NOAA/PSL and Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and M. D. Toy, J. W. Bao, J. B. Olson, and F. Yang

Phenomenological Analyses of Alternate Energy Sources

Using Machine Learning Techniques to Switch Between Distributions to Improve Data Assimilation

J14

Winter Storms: Results from NASA IMPACTS Field Campaign (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction)

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; and the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Claire Pettersen; Marian Mateling

11:15 AM

JointJ14.1

Micro- and Mesoscale Structures within Snowbands in Winter Storms: Preliminary Results from the Inestigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) Field Campaign

Lynn McMurdie, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. Heymsfield, J. E. Yorks, and J. Finlon

11:30 AM

JointJ14.2

Assessing Predictability of Winter Storms during the NASA IMPACTS Field Campaign

Steven J. Greybush, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. Seibert, S. Zhang, J. D. Hair, E. Myskowski, Y. Zhang, PhD, and M. Kumjian

11:45 AM

JointJ14.3

Passive Microwave Observations of Mesoscale Snow Bands from NASA IMPACTS

Matthew A. Miller, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter and L. M. Tomkins

12:00 PM

JointJ14.4

Multimodal Ice Crystal Size Distributions in Atlantic Coast Snowstorms: Results from IMPACTS 2020

Peter Anthony Brechner, MS, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. M. McFarquhar, J. Schima, D. J. Delene, C. Nairy, K. L. Thornhill, J. Finlon, D. W. Toohey, A. J. Heymsfield, A. Bansemer, R. M. Rauber, E. Järvinen, and M. Schnaiter

12:15 PM

JointJ14.5

Variability of Cool Season Precipitation Structures Within the Cyclone Comma Head

Phillip Yeh, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; SUNY Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, L. M. Tomkins, and S. E. Yuter

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Session 15

Forecasting High-Impact Weather with Artificial Intelligence: Applications for Severe Weather

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Aaron J. Hill, Colorado State University; Eric P. James

2:00 PM

15.1

Building Real-Time Machine Learning Forecast and Visualization Systems

David John Gagne II, Ph.D., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Becker, G. Gantos, R. A. Sobash, D. A. Ahijevych, N. A. Snook, R. Chase, L. K. Spychalla, M. Shotande, A. McGovern, C. D. Wirz, C. K. Potvin, and M. G. Cains

2:15 PM

15.2

Applying Dense and Convolutional Neural Networks to the HRRR and RRFS to Generate Reliable, Skillful 1-48 Hour Predictions of Severe Weather Reports, Warnings, and Lightning

Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, Y. Sha, C. S. Schwartz, D. J. Gagne II, Ph.D., D. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, and S. Benjamin

2:30 PM

15.3

Producing Machine Learning-Based Severe Weather Guidance at Watch-to-Warning Lead Times

Sam Varga, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. L. Flora and C. K. Potvin

2:45 PM

15.4

Evaluation of the Warn-on-Forecast Machine Learning System in the 2022 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Montgomery L. Flora, CIWRO; NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, P. S. Skinner, A. McGovern, B. T. Gallo, K. A. Wilson, and A. J. Clark

3:00 PM

15.5

Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions of Lightning Generated with a Neural Network and HRRR Forecasts

David A. Ahijevych, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Sobash

3:15 PM

15.6

Making Sense of Random Forest-Based Severe Weather Forecasts Using Tree Interpreter

Alexandra Mazurek, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Hill and R. S. Schumacher

J15

Predictability of Arctic Cyclones II

Location: Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Chair: Ola Persson

2:00 PM

JointJ15.1

Investigating the Relationship between Tropopause Polar Vortices and Arctic Cyclone Longevity

Steven M. Cavallo, Univ. of Oklahoma, Oklahoma City, OK

2:15 PM

JointJ15.2

Characteristics and Lifecycles of Anticyclonic Tropopause Polar Vortices

Joseph Burzdak, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo and D. B. Parsons

2:30 PM

JointJ15.3

Sensitivity of the February 2021 U.S. Cold-Air Outbreak to Tropopause Polar Vortex Intensity

Tomer Burg, CIRES @ NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD; and S. Cavallo

2:45 PM

JointJ15.4

Impact of Assimilating the THINICE2022 Continuous Windborne Observations inside a TPV on the Predictability of an Arctic Cyclone

ZHIHONG CHEN, The Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. T. Johnson, X. Wang, J. Creus-Costa, and T. Hutchinson

3:00 PM

JointJ15.5

Impact of Windborne Observation Assimilation on Prediction of a TPV Merger and Arctic Cyclogenesis Case Study from THINICE

Aaron T. Johnson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, J. Creus-Costa, and T. Hutchinson

3:15 PM

JointJ15.6

The Impact of Assimilated Clear-Sky and Cloudy Retrievals on Arctic Prediction During THINICE 2022

Steven Businger, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and T. Dunn, P. Antonelli, T. Cherubini, P. Scaccia, A. Valletti, and T. Corrigan

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Session 16

Forecasting High-Impact Weather with Artificial Intelligence: Applications for Precipitation and Global Weather

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Clark Evans, UW-Milwaukee; Kathryn Newman, NCAR

4:15 PM

16.1

How Far into the Medium Range Can Probabilistic Excessive Rainfall Forecasts be Extended?

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Hill and M. Klein

4:30 PM

16.2

How Long of an Observational Record Is Needed for Skillful ML-Based Forecasts of Excessive Rainfall?

Aaron J. Hill, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

4:45 PM

16.3

Testing Random Forests for Prediction of Excessive Rainfall Based on the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)

Eric P. James, GSD, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Schumacher and A. J. Hill

5:00 PM

16.4

Development of a Convolutional Neural Network to Predict Wintertime Orographic Precipitation Gradients of the Western US

Savanna Wolvin, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. Strong, S. Brewer, J. Steenburgh, and S. Rupper

5:15 PM

16.5

Impacts of Machine Learning for Targeted Observation Thinning in Satellite Data Assimilation

Kirana Olympia Bergstrom, CIRES, Boulder, CO; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and C. E. Kumler, I. Jankov, and J. Q. Stewart

Speaker Ready Room

Location: Hall of Ideas G (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Registration

Location: Counter 2 (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Session 17

Other Topics on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Tomer Burg; Stephanie J. Avey

8:30 AM

17.1

Forecast Verification at The Weather Company/IBM

Joseph P. Koval, IBM/Weather Company, Atlanta, GA; and L. C. Gaudet, J. K. Williams, P. P. Neilley, and T. Hamill

8:45 AM

17.2

Extreme GFS Temperature Forecasts During the Summer of 2022

Geoffrey Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. M. Bentley and S. R. Shields

9:00 AM

17.3

Environmental Conditions and Forecast Error Evolution Associated with Synoptic Progressiveness Errors in GFS Forecasts

Kevin M. Lupo, NCAR, 3090 Center Green Dr., CO; and C. S. Schwartz

9:15 AM

17.4

Calibration of Parameters of the Multigrid Beta Filter (MGBF) and its Performance within the Three-Dimensional Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (3D RTMA) Project

Miodrag Rancic, Lynker, College Park, MD

9:30 AM

17.5

Continual Optimization and Refactoring of GSI for Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS): Current Status and Prospect from the EMC Perspective

Ting lei, Lynker, Leesburg, VA; NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, college park, MD; and S. Liu, E. Rogers, X. Zhang, M. Rancic, M. Pondeca, M. E. Pyle, J. R. Carley, and D. T. Kleist

Manuscript (700.2 kB)

9:45 AM

17.6

A Damaging-Wind Based MCS Classification System and Formal Definition of a Derecho

Brian J. Squitieri, SPC, Norman, OK; and A. Wade and I. L. Jirak

AM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Session 18

Other Topics on Weather Analysis and Forecasting: Weather Around the World

Location: Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)

Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Jeffrey D. Duda; Matthew R. Beitscher, MS, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center

10:45 AM

18.1

Investigating Hail Melt Using Airbourne Observations and Concurrent Surface Observations of Hail

Hannah Vagasky, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA; and R. D. Adams-Selin

11:00 AM

18.2

Environments Associated with Hail Production in Organized Multicellular Systems in Subtropical South America

Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, Verisk AER, Offutt AFB, NE

11:15 AM

18.3

Examining Multi-Scale Interactions Associated with Offshore Rainfall Near the West Coast of Sumatra with Satellite Multi-Sensor Data, Reanalysis, and WRF Numerical Solutions

Johnathan Stoddard, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

11:30 AM

18.4

A Comparison between the only Two Tornado Outbreak Events in China: Tropical Cyclone vs. Extratropical Cyclone Environments

Jingyi Wen, Beijing, Beijing, 11, China; and Z. Meng

11:45 AM

18.5

Development of a Very Short-Range Forecast of Precipitation System in Vietnam

Kazuo Saito, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Univ. of Tokyo, kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan; and K. H. Mai and T. D. Du

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

PM Coffee Break

Location: Grand Terrace (Monona Terrace)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes; the 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Sunday, 16 July 2023

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 16 July 2023

Monday, 17 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

10:15 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Tuesday, 18 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Wednesday, 19 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

9:00 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Thursday, 20 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 20 July 2023

Friday, 21 July 2023

8:00 AM-3:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

8:00 AM-4:00 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 21 July 2023

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Friday, 21 July 2023

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

2:45 PM-3:30 PM: Friday, 21 July 2023

Sunday, 16 July 2023

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 16 July 2023

Monday, 17 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

10:15 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 17 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 17 July 2023

Tuesday, 18 July 2023

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

9:45 AM-11:15 AM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

11:15 AM-12:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

12:30 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

3:30 PM-4:15 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

4:15 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Wednesday, 19 July 2023