Assessment of RRFS Based Cloud Forecasts at the Aviation Weather Testbed

Accurate forecast depiction of restrictions related to ceiling and visibility due to clouds is crucial for aviation operations. Assessment of such cloud forecasts was a key piece of the 2023 Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT) Spring Experiment, held May 15-19, 2023. During the experiment, participants developed short-term aviation focused ceiling and visibility forecasts utilizing 3D cloud information from the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS), a modeling system currently in development as part of the FV3 model-based Short-Range Weather (SRW) application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The RRFS is slated to become operational in late 2024, replacing current short term models utilized for cloud forecasts such as the Rapid Refresh (RAP), High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), and High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF).

Overall findings of the evaluation will be presented including specifics on RRFS cloud forecast performance, differences in forecast characteristics between the RRFS and current suite of operational short-term models, and subjective assessments from experiment participants.