Session 5 Forecasting Tools and Techniques across Weather Scales: Probabilities and Bias

Tuesday, 18 July 2023: 8:30 AM-9:45 AM
Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)
Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Cochairs:
Stephanie J. Avey and Daniel James Lloveras

  • Topic-specific forecast techniques (aviation, fire weather, etc)
  • Observational and NWP tools to facilitate decision support services, including social media

Papers:
8:30 AM
5.1
Forecast Products Based on the 200-Member West-WRF Ensemble: A CW3E and NWS Western Region Collaborative Effort
Jonathan J. Rutz, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and B. Kawzenuk, L. Delle Monache, D. F. Steinhoff, M. Simpson, J. F. Kalansky, M. E. Jeglum, and J. Suk

Handout (12.6 MB)

8:45 AM
5.2
Dynamic Ensemble-Based Scenarios for IDSS (DESI): A New Decision Support Tool for Fast and Meaningful Interrogation of Ensemble-Based Numerical Weather Data
Travis Wilson, GSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Q. Stewart, D. D. Nietfeld, R. Howlett, C. Kahler, J. T. Radford, K. J. Harnos, K. Anderson, and C. Vaughn

9:00 AM
5.3
An Introduction to the "Ken's 10" NWS Initiative: Probabilistic Impact-based Decision Support Services
Kathryn K. Gilbert, NWS, College Park, MD; and R. Bandy, G. Cooper, PhD, S. B. Smith, J. S. Waldstreicher, A. Boxell, A. Foster, J. J. Brost, J. Fox, M. E. Jeglum, J. S. Lee, D. E. Levin, G. Mann, M. J. Moreland, S. Perfater, K. Scharfenberg, B. Smith, D. C. Strom, and D. R. Vallee

9:15 AM
5.4
Assessing Training and Competency Requirements in the Probabilistic Forecasting Era
Kevin Scharfenberg, NWS, Boulder, CO; and B. Smith, J. K. Jordan, B. Motta, B. Rozumalski, and A. Boxell

9:30 AM
5.5
The Use of METplus to Inform Forecasters of Model Biases and Forecast Consistencies for Phenomena at Different Scales
Tara L. Jensen, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and T. J. Hertneky, M. R. Green, M. J. Erickson, B. Veenhuis, J. Opatz, J. Hicks, and C. P. Kalb

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
See more of: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
<< Previous Session | Next Session >>