Session 15 Forecasting High-Impact Weather with Artificial Intelligence: Applications for Severe Weather

Thursday, 20 July 2023: 2:00 PM-3:30 PM
Madison Ballroom A (Monona Terrace)
Host: 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Cochairs:
Aaron J. Hill, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO and Eric P. James

Papers:
2:00 PM
15.1
Building Real-Time Machine Learning Forecast and Visualization Systems
David John Gagne II, Ph.D., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Becker, G. Gantos, R. A. Sobash, D. A. Ahijevych, N. A. Snook, R. Chase, L. K. Spychalla, M. Shotande, A. McGovern, C. D. Wirz, C. K. Potvin, and M. G. Cains

2:15 PM
15.2
Applying Dense and Convolutional Neural Networks to the HRRR and RRFS to Generate Reliable, Skillful 1-48 Hour Predictions of Severe Weather Reports, Warnings, and Lightning
Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, Y. Sha, C. S. Schwartz, D. J. Gagne II, Ph.D., D. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, and S. Benjamin

2:30 PM
15.3
Producing Machine Learning-Based Severe Weather Guidance at Watch-to-Warning Lead Times
Sam Varga, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. L. Flora and C. K. Potvin

2:45 PM
15.4
Evaluation of the Warn-on-Forecast Machine Learning System in the 2022 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
Montgomery L. Flora, CIWRO; NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, P. S. Skinner, A. McGovern, B. T. Gallo, K. A. Wilson, and A. J. Clark

3:00 PM
15.5
Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions of Lightning Generated with a Neural Network and HRRR Forecasts
David A. Ahijevych, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Sobash

3:15 PM
15.6
Making Sense of Random Forest-Based Severe Weather Forecasts Using Tree Interpreter
Alexandra Mazurek, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Hill and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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