Session 15 Model Development and Application: Stochastic Physics

Thursday, 20 July 2023: 2:00 PM-3:30 PM
Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)
Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:
Daryl T. Kleist and Michelle A. Harrold, NCAR, Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO

Papers:
2:00 PM
15.1
Testing Stochastic Physics Perturbation Methods in an Experimental Next-Generation 1-km Warn-on-Forecast System
Derek R. Stratman, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, C. A. Kerr, B. C. Matilla, and Y. Wang

2:15 PM
15.2
Stochastic Physics in the FV3-LAM/SRW App: Implementation, Testing, and Transition to Operations in the RRFS
Jeff Beck, NOAA/GSL, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Wolff, W. Mayfield, M. A. Harrold, W. Li, J. Berner, P. Pegion, C. Zhou, D. Dowell, C. R. Alexander, and J. R. Carley

2:30 PM
15.3
Evaluating Stochastic Parameter Perturbations in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of Lake-Effect Snow
W. Massey Bartolini, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and J. R. Minder

2:45 PM
15.4
Impact of Ensemble Design in the Rapid Refresh Forecast System Using Initial Condition and Stochastic Physics Perturbations
Will Mayfield, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Beck, G. Ketefian, M. A. Harrold, B. Nelson, C. P. Kalb, and C. Schwartz

3:00 PM
15.5
Evaluation of Real-time Convection-Allowing FV3 Ensemble Forecasts from the 2022 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment to Inform RRFS Ensemble Design
Nathan A. Snook, CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, J. Park, X. M. Hu, M. R. Johnson, and K. A. Brewster

3:15 PM
15.6
The Development and Evaluation of Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) Multiphysics Ensemble Prototype
Jili Dong, SAIC, College Park, MD; SAIC, College Park, MD; EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, M. E. Pyle, F. Yang, M. Xue, T. A. Supinie, D. Dowell, C. Zhou, J. Beck, E. Mansell, D. R. Stratman, Y. Wang, and J. Han

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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