NOAA Regional Models Consolidation and Retirement Plan: Rapid Refresh Forecast System

In response to the UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP (UCAN) Model Advisory Committee’s recommendations, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is making efforts to reduce the complexity of the NCEP production suite and transition to a unified modeling system based on the Unified Forecast System (UFS). UFS can be configured flexibly to support different forecast requirements such as air quality, hurricane, short-range weather (SRW)/convection-allowing model (CAM), etc. These are called applications. Within the NOAA model unification efforts, the number of operational models will be reduced from 24 to 10 in the next few years.

For the SRW/CAM application, the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) is under development to provide regional deterministic and ensemble forecast products. The initial operational implementation of RRFSv1 is planned for 2024. RRFS will lead to the retirement of a number of modeling systems in operations. Those to be retired by RRFS include HiRes Windows, NAM Nests/Fire Wx, HRRR, and HREF. This process is complicated by internal and external dependencies and requires close coordination among NOAA Line Offices to ensure all stakeholders’ needs are taken into consideration. This presentation will provide an overarching plan and timeline for the consolidation of all regional numerical weather forecast products in operations for RRFS and the timely retirement of legacy systems.