Evaluation of Real-Time WRF Forecasting Simulations during Escape

The Experiment of Sea breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) field campaign took place around the Houston metropolitan area in June 2022. During the campaign, 24-h real-time 1-km forecasting simulations were run daily at 06Z and 12Z with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The simulations were conducted with varying initial forcings, microphysics, planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, and aerosol loadings, creating an ensemble of 48 simulations for each initialization. The objectives were to assist the forecast team to identify convection initiation and timing to deploy ground and airborne instrumentations and build a large modeling ensemble database focused on the ESCAPE field operations to study model sensitivities and errors. This presentation will give a brief background of the simulation framework and focus on the model evaluation and validation based on convection observed on 16 June 2022. This day is selected owing to large spread in the ensemble predictions of the location and timing of convective initiation as well as the evolution of convective storms. Specifically, we will discuss the large role of planetary boundary layer parameterizations and large-scale forcing on the forecasted convection.