Session 4 Improvements in Tropical Convection Forecasts

Monday, 17 July 2023: 4:15 PM-5:30 PM
Madison Ballroom B (Monona Terrace)
Host: 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:
Vijay S. Tallapragada, NWS, NCEP/EMC/MDAB, College Park, MD and Kimberly Wood, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS

The quality of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the Tropics is important not only because of the local impact of tropical convection, but also because forecasts of convective activity in the Tropics can impact forecast skill in Mid-latitudes several days later. In particular, representation of large scale convective phenomena such as convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can have a large impact on remote model skill.

We welcome abstracts on model improvements in the representation of tropical convection with impacts on CCEWs or MJO skill and tropical precipitation skill in general. Model improvements of interest include, but are not limited to, deterministic convective parameterizations, coupling between convection and dynamics, coupling between moisture and dynamics, stochastic convection parameterizations, data assimilation techniques that impact tropical convection and precipitation forecasts, and improvements to the representation of air-sea coupling.

Papers:
4:15 PM
4.1
4:45 PM
4.3
GFS 3km Cloud Resolving Simulations for Hurricane Forecasts
Jiayi Peng, AXIOM at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Moorthi, F. Yang, and J. J. Levit

5:00 PM
4.4
Evaluation of Unified Forecast System Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
Kathryn M. Newman, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Nelson, E. Grell, L. Pan, M. K. Biswas, and W. Li

5:15 PM
4.5
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner