Session 11 Science and Prediction of Extreme Rainfall

Wednesday, 19 July 2023: 2:00 PM-3:30 PM
Madison Ballroom CD (Monona Terrace)
Host: 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes
Submitters:
Angela Rowe and Michael M. Bell, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO
Cochairs:
Angela Rowe and Ian Cornejo, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Libertyville, IL

Extreme rainfall is a global high-impact phenomenon that remains a prediction challenge. Whether this precipitation is produced from mesoscale convective systems, tropical cyclones, frontal, diurnal, or orographic origins, advancements in prediction of extreme rainfall events require improved understanding and representation of the ingredients and processes leading to a spectrum of rain events. Which dynamic, thermodynamic, kinematic, and microphysical factors are more important to improve predictive skill and what model improvements or assimilation of observations result in the most significant forecast improvements? How does complex terrain enhance the intensity and duration of mesoscale drafts in promoting more intense, sustained heavy rainfall?  

In this session, we invite submissions addressing this topic from both the observational and prediction perspectives. Insights from recent field campaigns and high-impact rainfall events are especially encouraged. We welcome presentations focusing on extreme rainfall events covering 1) Recent field campaigns, 2) Recent high-impact rainfall events, 3) Mesoscale Convective Systems, 4) Tropical Cyclones, 5) Complex terrain, 6) Multi-scale interactions, 7) Data Assimilation, 8) Model Verification, 9) Prediction Improvements. We enthusiastically welcome submissions from a variety of institutions, career levels, and backgrounds.

Papers:
2:15 PM
11.2
Evaluation and Assimilation of Low-Level Moisture from the MPD during the
Yunji Zhang, PhD, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and X. Chen

2:30 PM
11.3
2:45 PM
11.4
Recent Observed Trends and Interannual Variability of Summertime Extreme Convective Rainfall Events in the Central and Eastern United States
Jason Chiappa, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. B. Parsons, A. Shapiro, and J. C. Furtado

3:15 PM
11.6
Sources of Forecast Errors for Extreme-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Hill

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