11th Symposium on Global Change Studies

6.5

The Scientific Issues Arising from El Ni�o 1997-98

Stanley A. Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL

The development of this record large El Ni�o event and its ensuing major effects on the nation's weather over an 8-month period created a scientific event of major proportions. Key science-related questions that developed during El Ni�o 97-98 included:

  • Who was issuing El Ni�o-based climate predictions and for what conditions?
  • What kinds of weather conditions were caused by El Ni�o?
  • What types of impacts were being projected as a result of the El Ni�o weather?
  • How accurate and useful were the El Ni�o-based climate predictions?
  • How accurate were the oceanic predictions relating to the development, intensification, and dissipation of El Ni�o 97-98?
  • Was the record sized event caused by global warming?

    Answers to such questions define the scientific information transmitted to the public, scientific community, and decision makers during the event. This assessment focused on the scientific information that appeared during the period from May 1997 to June 1998, but it also included information appearing a few months after El Ni�o ended (into early 1999) since these issuances reflect the thoughts and findings being generated by scientists during the event.

    The scientific issues garnering the most attention were 1) attribution of various weather events on El Ni�o, 2) the relationship between El Ni�o and global warming, and 3) the projected impacts expected from the climate forecasted conditions. All threee issues were filled with debate, got major media attention, and all created a confusing perspective amongst the public. This paper addresses the various viewpoints expressed on these issues and the sources of the views.

  • Session 6, Policy Responses to the 1997/1998 El Nino: Implications for Forecast Value (Co-Sponsored by the Committee on Societal Impacts)(Parallel with Session 5)
    Tuesday, 11 January 2000, 8:45 AM-10:00 AM

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