6.4
Who Used and Benefitted From the El Niņo Forecasts?
David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL
Eighty-seven weather-sensitive decision makers in agribusiness, power utilities, water resources and other sectors were questioned to determine whether the 1997/98 El Niņo-derived seasonal forecasts were used and if their use provided any benefit. Nearly 47% of the individuals interviewed indicated that they used the forecasts in one or more decisions, another 29 individuals said they examined, evaluated, and/or considered implementing the forecasts before finally choosing not to use them; and 17 said that although they were aware of the El Niņo-based forecasts they did not use them. Of the 41 who used the forecasts, 27 (or 66%) responded that the decisions based on the forecasts had led to beneficial outcomes, and only two individuals reported a negative outcome. The survey=s findings indicated that: 1) inconsistent and/or differing forecast information often leads to non-use, 2) many potential users of seasonal forecasts still require convincing of its accuracy, 3) power utilities are most willing to explore the use of seasonal forecasts because they can link a financial benefit to it, and 4) NOAA and the applied climatology community need to actively work with users to inform and assist them to understand the forecast information and uncertainty. Continued improvements in seasonal forecasts should be associated with further use and benefit both in public and private sectors.
Session 6, Policy Responses to the 1997/1998 El Nino: Implications for Forecast Value (Co-Sponsored by the Committee on Societal Impacts)(Parallel with Session 5)
Tuesday, 11 January 2000, 8:45 AM-10:00 AM
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