12.1
Evaluating the performance of short-term climate forecasts
Jeffrey A. Shorter, TASC, Inc., Reading, MA; and M. J. Gibbas, R. J. Boucher, J. D. Goldstein, and R. F. Brammer
The economic impacts of weather and climate extremes have generated increased interest in the feasibility of medium to long-range forecasts of weather and climate on the scale of weeks, months and seasons. The TASC Center for Atmospheric, Space, and Oceanographic Modeling and Forecasting has established a climate modeling capability and is currently evaluating the accuracy and skill of climate forecasts on these time scales.
We will present recent results of inter-model comparisons and comparisons between observed weather data and forecasts of variable lead times. Keys areas of focus will be: 1) What are the best time averages to forecast (i.e., weekly, bi-weekly, monthly, or seasonal means); 2) What is the greatest forecast lead time for a given time average; 3) Are certain years more accurately forecasted (i.e., El Nino vs. La Nina); and 4) What are the most effective means for downscaling global gridded climate forecasts to specific point locations.
Session 12, Advancing Our Understanding of Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability: Part 3 (Parallel with Sessions 11, 13, JP3, JP4, J5, and J6)
Thursday, 13 January 2000, 8:00 AM-1:45 PM
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