Policy responses to the 1997/1998 El Niño: Implications for forecast value and the future of climate services

The 1997/1998 El Nino event will be remembered as one of the strongest ever recorded. For the first time, climate anomalies associated the event were anticipated by scientists and this information was communicated to the public to prepare for the "meteorological mayhem that climatologists are predicting will beset the entire globe this winter. The source of coming chaos is El Nino . . ." (Brownlee and Tangley 1997, 17). This paper discusses the use of climate forecasts by decision makers, drawing on experiences from the 1997/1998 El Nino, which replaced the 1982/1983 event as the "climate event of the century." The purpose of the paper is to draw lessons from the use of El Nino forecasts in the 1997/1998 event in order to improve the future production, delivery, and use of climate prediction. The Chapter focuses on examples of federal, state, and local responses in California, Florida, and Colorado. A full accounting of the use, misuse, costs, and benefits of the recent event awaits full documentation. Nonetheless, it is not too early to begin consideration of the implications of the 1997/1998 event for how we think about value of climate forecasts and the future of climate services.As the scientific community begins to move towards "operational forecasting" it will be important for the nation to develop a robust program of climate services. That is, for societal to realize benefits related to climate predictions, attention will have to be paid to both the production of forecasts and the use of forecasts by decision makers. This paper focuses on how we might begin to evaluate a program of climate forecasts with the goal of improving the use, and ultimately, their benefits to society.

Brownlee, S. and L. Tangley, 1997. The wrath of El Nino, Newsweek, 6 October, pp. 17ff.