11th Symposium on Global Change Studies

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- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Sunday, 9 January 2000

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 9 January 2000


Short Course Registration

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 9 January 2000


Conference Registration

Monday, 10 January 2000

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 10 January 2000


Conference Registration Continues through Friday, 14 January

9:00 AM-1:30 PM: Monday, 10 January 2000


Session 1
Agency Research Programs in the 21st Century
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
Organizer: Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC
9:00 AM
1.1
Status, progress, and plans for the USGCRP
Robert W. Corell, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA

9:30 AM
1.2
Status, progress, and future plans for NOAA's Global Change related programs
J. Michael Hall, NOAA, Office of Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD

10:00 AM
1.3
NASA's Studies of Global Change: Progress,Opportunities, and Challenges
Jack A. Kaye, NASA, Office of Earth Systems, Washington, DC

10:30 AM
1.4
Status, progress, and future plans for DOE's Global Change related programs
Aristides A. Patrinos, U.S. Department of Energy, Germantown, MD

11:00 AM
1.5
11:30 AM
1.2a
Coffee Break

12:00 PM
1.5a
Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 10 January 2000


Session 2
IPCC TAR: Long-term Climate Variability and Change: Part 1 (Parallel with Session 3)
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
Organizer: Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC
1:30 PM
2.1
Impact of CO2-induced warming on hurricane intensities as simulated in a hurricane model with ocean coupling
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya, W. Shen, and I. Ginis

1:45 PM
2.2
Simulated climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries
Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Arblaster

2:30 PM
2.5
Uncertainties in climate system properties and anthropogenic aerosol forcings based on climate change detection methods
Chris E. Forest, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. R. Allen, P. H. Stone, and A. P. Sokolov

2:45 PM
2.6
A regional climate change projection over East Asia
Seita Emori, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nozawa, A. Numaguti, and I. Uno


Session 3
Societal Impacts and Climate Assessments (Co-Sponsored by the Committee on Societal Impacts) (Parallel with Session 2)
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
Organizer: David Easterling, NOAA/NCDC
1:30 PM
3.1
Long-term fluctuations in hail incidences in the United States
David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and S. A. Changnon

1:45 PM
3.2
Regional impacts and adaptation: new challenges for climate change reporting and synthesis
Stewart J. Cohen, Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada

2:00 PM
3.3
Development of an index to monitor extreme weather-climate impacts in the United States
Stanley A. Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL; and G. J. D. Hewings and R. A. Pielke Jr.

2:15 PM
3.4
Ten-year U.S. regional climate simulations for impact assessments
Zaitao Pan, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and J. H. Christensen, R. W. Arritt, W. J. Gutowski Jr., and E. S. Takle

2:30 PM
3.5
Combining Paleoclimatic Evidence and GCMS by Means of Data Assimilation Through Upscaling and Nudging (Datun)
Hans von Storch, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany; and U. Cubasch, J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco, J. M. Jones, R. Voss, M. Widmann, and E. Zorita

2:45 PM
3.6
Overlooked issues in the U.S. national climate and IPCC assessments
Roger A. Pielke, Sr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 10 January 2000


1
Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 10 January 2000


Session 4
U. S. National Assessment
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
Organizer: Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC
3:30 PM
4.1
The U.S. National Assessment: An Overview
Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC

3:45 PM
4.2
Statistical and dynamical downscaling of global model output for U.S. National Assessment hydrological analyses
William J. Gutowski Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. Wilby, L. E. Hay, C. J. Anderson, R. W. Arritt, M. P. Clark, G. H. Leavesley, Z. Pan, R. Silva, and E. S. Takle

4:00 PM
4.3
The issue of spatial scale in integrated assessments: an example of agriculture in the Southeastern U.S
Linda O. Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Carbone, W. Gao, L. McDaniel, E. Tsvetsinskaya, B. McCarl, and R. Adams

4:15 PM
4.4
Comparison of GCM-projected daily maximum and minimum temperature for the Great Lakes Region
Julie A. Winkler, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and J. A. Andresen, G. Guentchev, J. A. Picardy, and E. A. Waller

4:45 PM
4.6
Gauging impacts of climate change on the Pacific Northwest using observed climate variations
Philip W. Mote, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. Hamlet, N. Mantua, and E. Miles

5:00 PM
4.7
Assessment of Potential Effects of Climate Change on Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms Near Lake Erie
Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and N. E. Westcott and D. A. R. Kristovich

5:15 PM
4.8
Trends in spring snow cover retreat over the U.S. and the effect of observation time bias
Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and B. Sun and R. R. Heim Jr.

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 10 January 2000


Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 10 January 2000


Sessions end for the day

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 10 January 2000


Fujita Banquet

Tuesday, 11 January 2000

8:15 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 11 January 2000


Session 5
IPCC TAR: Long-term Climate Variability and Change: Part 2 (Parallel with Session 6)
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
Organizer: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NCDC
8:15 AM
5.1
Variations in the snow melt onset date derived from passive microwave data
Sheldon D. Drobot, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. R. Anderson

8:30 AM
5.2
Spaceborne climate change monitoring by GNSS occultation sensors
Gottfried Kirchengast, Univ. of Graz, Graz, Austria; and A. K. Steiner, U. Foelsche, L. Kornblueh, E. Manzini, and L. Bengtsson

8:45 AM
5.3
Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes
Susanna Corti, CINECA, Casalecchio di Reno, Bologna, Italy; and F. Molteni and T. N. Palmer

9:00 AM
5.4
Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Global Warming Using Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent
Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock, R. J. Stouffer, J. E. Walsh, C. L. Parkinson, D. J. Cavalieri, J. F. B. Mitchell, D. Garrett, and V. F. Zakharov

9:15 AM
5.5
Global Warming Potentials Modified for Water Interference in the Atmosphere
W. F. J. Evans, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada; and E. Puckrin and T. Ogawa

9:30 AM
5.6
On the Morphology of Cloud Absorption: Preferential Attenuation of Near Infrared Solar Radiation
L. C. McCormick, Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON, Canada; and E. Puckrin and W. F. J. Evans

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 11 January 2000


Session 6
8:45 AM
6.1
Winners and Losers: The Impacts of El Niño 1997-98
Stanley A. Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL

9:00 AM
6.2
Media Coverage of El Nino: The Rise of a Signal Event
Lee Wilkins, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO

9:30 AM
6.4
Who Used and Benefitted From the El Niño Forecasts?
David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL

9:45 AM
6.5
The Scientific Issues Arising from El Niño 1997-98
Stanley A. Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 11 January 2000


1
Coffee Break (Exhibit Hours 10:00 a.m.-2:15 p.m.)

10:30 AM-11:15 AM: Tuesday, 11 January 2000


1
WALTER ORR ROBERTS LECTURE IN INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE (Special President's Symposium on Environmental Applications) Speaker: R. E. (Ted) Munn, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Title: Emerging Environmental Issues: A Global Perspective

11:15 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2000


1
WMO PRESENTATION (Special President's Symposium on Environmental Applications) Title: Meteorology and the Environment-The WMO Perspective Speaker: John W. Zillman, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland

12:15 PM-2:15 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2000


1
Conference Luncheon (Speaker: D. James Baker, Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, Administrator for NOAA, Silver Spring, MD)

2:15 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2000


Session 7
Weather and Climate Extremes
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
Organizer: Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC
2:15 PM
7.1
Climate Extremes: Introductory Remarks
Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC

2:30 PM
7.2
Observed Variability and Trends in Climate Extremes
David R. Easterling, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC

3:30 PM
7.4
Trends in Impacts of Weather and Climate Extremes
Roger A. Pielke Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO

4:00 PM
7.5
Observations of Biotic Response in Wild Species to Current Climate Change
Camille Parmesan, University of Texas, Austin, TX

4:30 PM
7.6
Government Policies Pretaining to Weather and Climate Extremes
Stanley A. Changnon, ISWS, Champaign, IL

5:00 PM
7.3a
Coffee Break

5:15 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2000


Oral Sessions end for the day

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 11 January 2000


Poster Session 1
Global Change
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
P1.1
Data rescue at the National Climatic Data Center
Stephen R. Doty, Doty Data Services under contract with the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Asheville, NC; and J. D. Elms

P1.2
Cloud Type Radiative Effects from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project
Ting Chen, Columbia University, New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow and Y. Zhang

P1.3
Investigation of the sensitivity of global oceans to continental runoff using the PCM parallel climate model
Marcia L. Branstetter, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and J. S. Famiglietti, A. P. Craig, and W. M. Washington

P1.4
Micrometeorological conditions at the Forest-Atmosphere Carbon Transfer and Storage (FACTS-II) Aspen FACE facility in northern Wisconsin
Warren E. Heilman, USDA Forest Service, East Lansing, MI; and R. M. Teclaw and J. E. Eenigenburg

P1.6
Carbon budget at tropical forest in the Amazon region
Gilberto Fisch, Centro Tecnico Aeroespacial, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil; and R. Ferreira da Costa, A. R. Pereira, A. D. Culf, Y. Malhi, C. A. Nobre, and A. D. Nobre

P1.7
Multiple AGCM Hindcasts of 1969-1998
Kathryn P. Shah, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and D. Rind

P1.8
The seasonal and interannual variability of Atlantic Basin hurricane activity
Grant Johnston, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo

P1.9
A Study of the Effect of La Niña on the Weather of U.S. Cities
Susan F. Wood, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith and A. M. Siegrist

P1.10
A Study of the Effect of El Niño on the Weather of U.S. Cities
Susan F. Wood, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith and M. J. Ledridge

P1.11
Development of latitudinal land and sea temperature indices for climate monitoring
Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and A. Basist and R. G. Quayle

P1.12
Development of a new U.S. Climate Atlas
Marc S. Plantico, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and L. A. Goss, C. Daly, and G. Taylor

P1.13
International Station Meteorological Summary (ISMCS) Windows, Version 1.0
M. Lawrence Nicodemus, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and O. Brass

P1.14
Standard climatic Normals and supplemental Normals development
Greg Hammer, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Cram

P1.15
The impact of climate change on Peak Electicity Demand In the Great Lakes Region
George M. Albercook, Center for Environmental Policy, Economics and Science, Ann Arbor, MI; and A. Khotanzad

P1.16
Seasonal changes and yearly budgets of CH4 and CO2 fluxes at lotus field in Japan (Formerly Paper 9.14)
Yoshinobu Harazono, National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and A. Miyata, N. Ota, K. Takagi, and M. Komine

P1.17
Detection and correction of temperature inhomogeneities in the radiosonde data
Robert E. Eskridge, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Luers, A. Holbrooks, and D. Parker

Wednesday, 12 January 2000

8:00 AM-4:59 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2000


Joint Session 1
Surface/Atmosphere Interactions: Invited Session (Joint with the 15th Conference on Hydrology and 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Conference on Hydrology; and the 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies )
Organizer: Yongkang Xue, University of Maryland
8:00 AM
J1.1
Soil Dust Modeling-Feedbacks of Dust and Climate
Ina Tegen, Columbia Univ. and NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and R. Miller and J. Perlwitz

8:15 AM
J1.2
Incorporating vegetation as a dynamic element in the Hadley Centre GCM
Peter M. Cox, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom

8:45 AM
J1.3
The roles of subgrid topography on land-atmosphere interactions
L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and M. S. Wigmosta

9:00 AM
J1.4
Investigating the Effect of Seasonal Crop Growth on the Climate of NCAR Regional Climate Model
Elena Tsvetsinskaya, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. O. Mearns and W. E. Easterling

9:15 AM
J1.6
A mechanism for the low-frequency variability of the Sahel rainfall
Guiling Wang, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and E. A. B. Eltahir

9:30 AM
J1.7
Role of natural vegetation dynamics in the Sahel drought
Guiling Wang, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and E. A. B. Eltahir

9:45 AM
J1.8
Modelling the impact of land surface degradation on the climate of tropical North Africa
Douglas B. Clark, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; and Y. Xue

11:15 AM
J1.12
Land-atmosphere Interactions: Successes, Problems and Prospects
Y. C. Sud, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. M. Mocko

11:45 AM
J1.13
Simulations with the coupled Eta/SSiB Model over South America
Sin Chan Chou, INPE/CPTEC, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and C. A. S. Tanajura, Y. K. Xue, and C. A. Nobre

12:15 PM
J1.15
Impacts of deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region as simulated by the MPI model
Lydia Dumenil Gates, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and S. Liess

12:30 PM
J1.16
Diurnal cycle the coupled Eta/SSiB Model for El Nino and La Nina conditions over South America
Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Laboratorio Nacional de Computacao Cientifica, Petropolis, RJ, Brazil; and S. C. Chou, Y. K. Xue, and C. A. Nobre

12:45 PM
J1.17
Climate drift in the coupled land-atmosphere system
Paul A. Dirmeyer, COLA, Calverton, MD

1:00 PM
J1.18
Timescales of soil moisture anomalies: results from two GCMs
Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. C. D. Milly, C. A. Schlosser, and M. J. Suarez

1:30 PM
J1.19
Impacts of Surface Processes over Land and Ocean on Summer Precipitation and Subtropical High
Guoxiong Wu, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Liu, H. Liu, P. Liu, and W. Li

1:45 PM
J1.20
Vegetation-climate interaction and Sahel climate variability
Ning Zeng, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin and W. K. M. Lau

2:00 PM
J1.21
Sensitivity of GCM simulations to land surface processes
Yongkang Xue, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. H. Juang, S. Y. Hong, M. Kanamitsu, and Y. Sud

2:15 PM
J1.5A
GLOBAL CLIMATE EFFECTS OF HEATING ANOMALIES RESULTING FROM TROPICAL LANDCOVER CHANGE
Thomas N. Chase, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Pielke Sr., M. Zhao, A. J. Pitman, T. G. F. Kittel, R. R. Nemani, and S. W. Running

2:30 PM
J1.7a
Coffee Break

3:00 PM
J1.11a
Lunch Break

4:30 PM
J1.16a
Coffee Break

8:15 AM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2000


Session 8
Advancing Our Understanding of Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability: Part 1 (Parallel with Joint Session J1)
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
Organizer: Henry F. Diaz, NOAA/ERL
8:15 AM
8.1
The World Climate Programme
Michael J. Coughlan, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland

8:30 AM
8.2
Astronomical Effects on the Winter Climate of the Midwest
John C. Freeman, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX; and J. F. Hasling

8:45 AM
8.3
The Little Summer Drought (Veranico) During the Rainy Season in the Amazon Basin. General Characteristics and Variability
Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoiera Paulista, SP, Brazil; and D. Mendes and L. Calvetti

9:00 AM
8.4
Interdecadal and long-term variability of precipitation in the Brazilian Amazon basin
Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and G. Sampaio, H. Camargo, C. Castro, and M. Sanches

9:15 AM
8.5
Impact of the phenomenon El-Niño on the regime of precipitation in the area of the medium amazon
David Mendes, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and J. Cohen

9:30 AM
8.6
Atmospheric characteristics of the Sahel summer rains and links to global SSTs
Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. D. Bell

9:45 AM
8.7
Variability of All India Monsoon Rainfall
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS

10:00 AM
8.8
Pacific-East Asian teleconnections: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate?
Bin Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Wu and X. Fu

10:15 AM
8.9
The climatology and interannual variability of the North American Monsoon as revealed by the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis
Christopher L. Castro, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. B. McKee and R. A. Pielke Sr.

10:30 AM
8.10
Dominant factors influencing the seasonal predictability of United States precipitation and surface air temperature
Wayne Higgins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Leetmaa, Y. Xue, and A. Barnston

10:45 AM
8.11
Interannual Variations of Summer Precipitation and Temperature in the Central United States
Qi Hu, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and J. W. Lee and C. J. Hays

11:00 AM
8.12
The current decade-scale precipitation fluctuation in the Southern Great Plains
Jurgen D. Garbrecht, USDA/ARS, El Reno, Oklahoma; and F. E. Rossel

11:15 AM
8.13
11:30 AM
8.7a
Coffee Break

12:00 PM
8.13a
Lunch Break

1:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2000


Session 9
Advancing Our Understanding of Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability: Part 2 (Parallel with Joint Session J1)
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
Organizer: Mike Crowe, NOAA/NCDC
1:30 PM
9.1
1:45 PM
9.2
The New 20-year Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Merged Satellite and Raingauge Monthly Analysis
Robert Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Huffman, P. P. Xie, B. Rudolf, A. Gruber, M. O. A. with GPCP, and J. Janowiak

2:00 PM
9.3
Multi-year Variability of Tropospheric Water Vapor
Rebecca J. Ross, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and J. X. L. Wang

2:15 PM
9.4
Upper tropospheric water vapor observations and modeling-a summary of recent progress
John J. Bates, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and Z. Bergen and D. Jackson

2:30 PM
9.5
The sensitivity of ocean responses to wind forcing in the tropical Pacific
Xiaosu Xie, California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Lab., Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu

2:45 PM
9.6
On the detection of the 1 to 2 week subtropical jets over the South Pacific during November 1986-April 1987
Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan

3:00 PM
9.7
World Weather Research Program
Frederic Delsol, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland

3:15 PM
9.8
Is El Nino changing?
D. E. Harrison, PMEL, Seattle, WA; and N. K. Larkin

3:30 PM
9.9
Localized North Pacific decadal variability
Mathew A. Barlow, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY

4:00 PM
9.11
Changes in Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Internal Variability Associated with ENSO
Arun Kumar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Barnston, P. Peng, M. P. Hoerling, and L. Goddard

4:15 PM
9.12
The heat sources and sinks of the 1986-87 El Nino
De-Zheng Sun, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO

4:30 PM
9.13
The interannual variability of blocking on a global scale
Jason M. Wiedenmann, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo

5:00 PM
9.6a
Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2000


Session 10
IPCC TAR: Long-term Climate Variability and Change: Part 3 (Parallel with Joint Session J1)
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
Organizer: David Easterling, NOAA/NCDC
3:30 PM
10.1
Upper Air Temperature Variations and Change
John R. Christy, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL

3:45 PM
10.2
Multi-decadal Changes in the Vertical Temperature Structure of the Tropical Troposphere
Dian J. Gaffen, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and B. D. Santer, J. S. Boyle, J. R. Christy, N. E. Graham, and R. J. Ross

4:00 PM
10.3
Tropical atmospheric and oceanic temperature variations (1979)
John R. Christy, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. E. Parker, S. J. Brown, I. Macadam, and M. Stendel

4:15 PM
10.4
The Relationship Between Surface and the Lower Troposphere Anomalies
Alan Basist, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. R. Christy

4:30 PM
10.6
Pan Evaporation Trends in Dry and Humid Regions of the U.S
Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. C. Peterson and P. Y. Groisman

4:45 PM
10.7
A centennial-scale climate-change anomaly over a small region
Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

5:00 PM
10.5a

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2000


Sessions end for the day

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2000


Reception (Cash Bar)

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 12 January 2000


AMS Annual Awards Banquet

Thursday, 13 January 2000

8:00 AM-1:29 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2000


Session 11
IPCC TAR: Long-term Climate Variability and Change: Part 4 (Parallel with Sessions 12, JP3, and J4)
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
Organizer: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NCDC
8:00 AM
11.1
Heavy rainfall and convective cloudiness changes as indicators of intensification of the hydrological cycle
Pavel Ya. Groisman, UCAR Project Scientist at NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and B. Sun

8:15 AM
11.2
Trends in temperature, humidity, and summertime extreme heat in China
Julian X. L. Wang, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and D. J. Gaffen

8:30 AM
11.3
A Preliminary Examination of Regional Climate Trends in Atlantic Canada
Cindy N. Vallis, Environment Canada, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and N. Frigault

8:45 AM
11.4
Spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme temperatures over Canada
B. R. Bonsal, AES, Downsview, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang, L. A. Vincent, and W. D. Hogg

9:00 AM
11.5
Climate Change Indices Derived from Daily In Situ Data
Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and P. Y. Groisman, B. E. Gleason, and D. R. Easterling

9:30 AM
11.7
9:45 AM
11.9
River discharge in a doubled carbon dioxide climate
Lydia Dumenil Gates, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and S. Hagemann

10:00 AM
11.10
Impact of a climate change on the hydrology of the French Rhône river
Pierre Etchevers V, Météo-France, Saint Martin d'Hères, France; and J. Noilhan, C. Golaz, E. Ledoux, E. Leblois, and C. Ottlé

10:30 AM
11.12
On the relation between complex and simple climate models
Arthur C. Petersen, Utrecht Univ., Utrecht, Netherlands

10:45 AM
11.13
11:00 AM
11.14
11:15 AM
11.8a
Contribution of North Atlantic Intermediate and Deep water Masses to the Earth’s Heat Balance
Sydney Levitus, NODC/NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, and C. Stephens

11:30 AM
11.14a
Lunch Break

1:00 PM
11.8b
Coffee Break

8:00 AM-1:45 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2000


Session 12
8:00 AM
12.1
Evaluating the performance of short-term climate forecasts
Jeffrey A. Shorter, TASC, Inc., Reading, MA; and M. J. Gibbas, R. J. Boucher, J. D. Goldstein, and R. F. Brammer

8:15 AM
12.2
Interdecadal Changes in the Structure and Frequency of ENSO Mode
Soon-Il An, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang and F. F. Jin

8:45 AM
12.4
Teleconnections and local response to tropical SST anomalies
Hui Su, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin, C. Chou, and N. Zeng

9:00 AM
12.5
9:15 AM
12.6
9:30 AM
12.7
An assessment of the association between the Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere temperature
Anthony J. Broccoli, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth and N. C. Lau

9:45 AM
12.8
Anomaly Forcing in an Ensemble Regional Climate Model Simulation
Jan F. Dutton, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and E. J. Barron

10:00 AM
12.9
Assessment of the Utility of the Regional Climate Simulations in the Prediction of Drought
Ana P. Barros, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and G. S. Jenkins and R. Bindlish

10:15 AM
12.10
Regional climate simulation of the anomalous U.S. Climate events with a variable resolution stretched grid GCM
Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. Takacs and M. J. Suarez

11:15 AM
12.14
Non-modal growth in ENSO and its interdecadal change
Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

11:30 AM
12.15
The SST Anomalies Dipole in the Extratropical Pacific and Its Relationships with the ENSO Cycle
Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and W. T. Liu and C. R. Mechoso

11:45 AM
12.16
Ocean-atmosphere-land feedbacks in an idealized monsoon
Chia Chou, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin, H. Su, and N. Zeng

12:00 PM
12.17
Effects of a stochastic convective parameterization on tropical intraseasonal variability
Johnny Wei-Bing Lin, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin

12:15 PM
12.18
A study of initializations for ENSO forecast models
Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Leetmaa and M. Cane

12:30 PM
12.19
12:45 PM
12.8a
Coffee Break

1:15 PM
12.14a
Lunch Break

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 13 January 2000


Joint Session 4
Climatology and Long-Term Satellite Data Studies: Part I (Invited Oral Presentations) (Joint Session with 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies)
Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies )
Organizers: Tracy Diliberty, Univ. of Delaware; Michael Goodman, NASA/MSFC; David Easterling, NOAA/NCDC
8:30 AM
J4.1
Can the current satellite systems observe a change in the Earth's hydrologic cycle?
David L. Randel, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO

9:00 AM
J4.3
Overview of Regional To Global Scale Satellite Remote Sensing of Snow Cover
Richard L. Armstrong, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO

9:15 AM
J4.4
New Results from CERES/TRMM on Tropical Radiative Fluxes
Bruce Wielicki, NASA/LARC, Langley, VA

9:30 AM
J4.5
Discussion

10:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2000


Joint Poster Session 3
Climatology and Long-Term Satellite Data Studies: Part II (Joint with the 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies)
Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies )
Organizers: Tracy DeLiberty, Univ. of Delaware; Michael Goodman, NASA/MSFC/GHCC
JP3.0
Student Poster Contest

JP3.1
GPCP Global Pentad Precipitation Analysis: A 20-Year data Set Based on Gauge Observations and Satellite Estimates
Pingping Xie, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. R. Ferraro, J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, G. J. Huffman, R. F. Adler, and A. Gruber

JP3.2
A global precipitation perspective on persistent extratropical flow anomalies
George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC and SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler and D. T. Bolvin

JP3.3
TRMM-based merged precipitation analyses
Robert F. Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Huffman, D. T. Bolvin, E. Nelkin, and S. Curtis

JP3.4
SSM/I-derived global rainfall statistics and their application
Qihang Li, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. R. Ferraro

JP3.5
Evaluation of the GPCP Rainfall Product via the Surface Reference Data Center
J. Brad McGavock, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Greene, B. A. Gibson, and M. L. Morrissey

JP3.6
JP3.7
Interannual variability of tropical precipitation as represented in satellite-based data sets
Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and D. Fitzjarrald, J. Roads, and E. McCaul

JP3.8
Variability of Convective Precipitation from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI)
Ye Hong, Caelum Research Corp., Rockville, MD; and C. D. Kummerow and W. S. Olson

JP3.9
JP3.10
Large-scale Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions in the Tropics from SSM/I and TRMM TMI/PR
William S. Olson, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and Y. Hong, S. Yang, Z. S. Haddad, C. D. Kummerow, and W. K. Tao

JP3.11
Evaluation of a new technique to combined microwave and infrared satellite data for estimation of small-scale rainfall over the global tropics and subtropics
Martin C. Todd, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and C. K. Kidd, D. R. Kniveton, T. J. Bellerby, and D. Kilham

JP3.12
A combined infrared and microwave technique for studying the diurnal variation of rainfall over Amazonia
Andrew J. Negri, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Xu, R. F. Adler, E. Anagnostou, and T. M. Rickenbach

JP3.13
Identifying the relationship of a satellite derived surface wetness with precipitation and river discharge
Alan Basist, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. Williams, A. Chang, R. R. Ferraro, N. Grody, and T. Ross

JP3.14
JP3.15
Typical evolution of cold cloud patterns associated with wet and dry spells over Central America during the wet season
Malaquias Pena, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. W. Douglas

JP3.16
High-Resolution Space/Time Variations of Cloud Conditions from the CHANCES Data Set
Thomas H. Vonder Haar, Science and Technology Corp. and CIRA/ Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. A. Ringerud and D. L. Reinke

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2000


Joint Session 5
Climatology and Long-Term Satellite Data Studies: Part III (Invited Oral Presentations) (Joint with 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography and 11th Symposium on Climate Change Studies)
Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies )
1:30 PM
J5.1
Calculating global atmospheric temperatures from the MSU, A Never Ending Story?
John R. Christy, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. W. Spencer and W. D. Braswell

1:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2000


Session 13
IPCC TAR: Long-term Climate Variability and Change: Part 5 (Parallel with Sessions 12, JP4, and J5)
Host: 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies
Organizer: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NCDC
1:45 PM
13.2
Simulations of aerosol indirect effect for IPCC emission scenarios
Catherine C. Chuang, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and J. E. Penner and Y. Zhang

2:00 PM
13.3
Cirrus cloud infrared scattering and absorption in a GCM radiative model
Everette Joseph, Howard University, Washington, DC

2:15 PM
13.4
Evaluation of cloud-radiation sensitivities to alternative cloud and convection schemes
Sam F. Iacobellis, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville and D. E. Lane

2:30 PM
13.5
Climate Simulation over Japan in Summer with an MRI regional climate model: Present Day and 2xCO2 Experiments
Kazuyo Adachi, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and Y. Sato, H. Sasaki, A. Noda, and S. Yukimoto

2:45 PM
13.6
Validation of a stochastic radiative transfer model
Dana E. Lane, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville and S. F. Iacobellis

3:00 PM
13.7
Analysis of forcing methods for single-column models
Sam F. Iacobellis, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville and D. E. Lane

3:15 PM
13.8
On detecting the signature of regional aerosol radiative forcing in eastern China
Shaocai Yu, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and V. K. Saxena and Z. Zhao

3:30 PM
13.9
Evaluating the climatic response to changes in CO2 and solar luminosity
Zavareh Kothavala, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and R. J. Oglesby and B. Saltzman

3:45 PM
13.10
GCM experiments to test a proposed dynamical stabilizing mechanism in the climate system
Vladimir Alexeev, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; and J. R. Bates

4:00 PM
13.11
Analysis of CGCM control runs from CMIP-II
Krishna AchutaRao, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and C. Covey

4:15 PM
13.12
Coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments of future climate change based on IPCC SRES scenarios
Toru Nozawa, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and S. Emori, T. Takemura, T. Nakajima, A. Numaguti, A. Abe-Ouchi, and M. Kimoto

4:30 PM
13.6a
Coffee Break

2:00 PM-2:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2000


Joint Session 6
Panel Discussion: NRC sub-committee report "Reconciling Temperature Observations" (Joint with 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography and 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies)
Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies )

3:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2000


Joint Poster Session 4
Climatology and Long-Term Satellite Data Studies: Part IV (Joint 1th Symposium on Global Change Studies)
Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies )
JP4.1
Calibration of the geostationary satellite water vapor channels
Francois-Marie Breon, CIRES and NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Bates and W. Rossow

JP4.2
Passive microwave observations of water vapor profiles during two ENSO events
Clay B. Blankenship, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and T. T. Wilheit

JP4.3
Water vapor winds and their application to climate change studies
Gary J. Jedlovec, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and J. A. Lerner

JP4.4
Satellite-Derived Poleward Moisture Transport Over the Southern Oceans
Cheng-Zhi Zou, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and M. L. Van Woert

JP4.5
Characterization and Validation of the Heat Storage Variability from TOPEX/POSEIDON at Four Oceanographic Sites
Paulo S. Polito, JPL, California Inst. of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and O. T. Sato and W. T. Liu

JP4.6
A Regional-Scale Assessment of Satellite-Derived Precipitable Water in the Amazon Basin
Tracy L. DeLiberty, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and J. A. Callahan, A. R. Guillory, and G. J. Jedlovec

JP4.7
Comparison of Daily Total Precipitable Water from Satellite and Model Reanalysis Fields
Gary J. Jedlovec, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and R. J. Suggs and S. Haines

JP4.8
Diurnal Variation of Outgoing Longwave Radiation: Preliminary Results Based on Harmonic Analysis of the ERBS Observations
Pingping Xie, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and S. K. Yang

JP4.9
ERBE-like and ISCCP-like Outgoing Longwave Radiation from Scanner for Radiation Budget Project
Ting Chen, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow and Y. Zhang

JP4.10
ERBE Scene Identification as seen by ISCCP: Results from ScaRaB Data
Ting Chen, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow

JP4.11
A 20-yr TOVS radiance Pathfinder data set for climate analysis
Darren L. Jackson, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Bates

JP4.12
EOF Analysis of Zonally Averaged MSU Radiances (1979-1998)
Grant W. Petty, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN

JP4.13
Reconciling Surface and Satellite Temperature Measurements
Brian Soden, NOAA/GFDL and Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ

JP4.14
A New Look at the McCann Study of the Enhanced-V Signature
Steven J. Caruso, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and R. Rabin, D. Zaras, and J. LaDue

JP4.15
JP4.16
The Use of Satellite Data in an Optimal Interpolation Assimilation Scheme
Randall J. Alliss, Litton-TASC, Chantilly, VA; and M. E. Loftus, D. Apling, and J. Lefever

JP4.17
SUPPRESSED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN 1998
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki-ken, Japan

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 13 January 2000


Conference Ends