The impact of climate change on Peak Electicity Demand In the Great Lakes Region

.In the Northeastern US during the July 1999 heat wave the increased demand for electricity drove the wholesale price of 1 megawatt hour of power from $25 to $1000! Electric utilities struggled to find enough electricity to run residential and commercial air conditioners.

General circulation models predict an increase in climate variability including heat waves like this one.

The intermediate and peak power generating facilities, that are needed during these times, are the least efficient and most polluting. Sophisticated load forecasting can enable and encourage demand side management and investments in infrastructure that can maximize efficiency and minimize emissions.

This study presents a new methodology that is suitable for evaluating the impact of climate change on energy demand. In this methodology site specific data, provided by stakeholder utilities, can be combined with state-of-the art climate model outputs and demographic projections to produce potential demand scenarios. Climate model outputs are converted to heating and cooling degree days. Demographic models provide projections for population. Coefficients for energy demand per degree day per person can either be taken from the literature or from the records of a particular utility