Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Projections of Future Climate Change

ms.Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate states. Some of these model results have already been seen in observations, including a greater number of extreme warm days and extreme heat stress events with a fewer number of extreme cold days associated with a warmer mean climate, a decrease in diurnal temperature range associated with higher night-time temperatures, and increased precipitation intensity. Other model projections include northern midcontinent summer drying, decreasing daily variability of temperature in winter, and increasing variability of northern midlatitude summer temperatures. Though models are becoming increasingly sophisticated, they still are not consistent with respect to possible future changes in tropical cyclones, El Nino effects, and extratropical stor