On the impacts of weather and climate variability and change in agricultural production and prices: cold surges and their impact on the coffee growing industry in Southern and southeastern Brazil

Abstract:

It has been observed that wintertime surges of polar outbreaks reach air subtropical and tropical latitudes of South America, and in few occasions these surges of cold air have been associated with freezing conditions on the coffee growing areas of the southern and southeastern states of Brazil. Since Brazil is the world largest coffee producer and exporter, such weather related hazards have had in the past, and still have a great impact on the volumes of total production on the regions, and on the international prices at the main stock exchanges of the world. The best documented cases are the freezes of July 1975 and June and July 1994, and together with drought as in June 1981, they have reduced significantly the volumes of production by more than 50% and increased the international coffee prices in more than 40%. Impacts of this cooling have been identified since the end of the XIX century, by statistics of coffee production in the growing areas of southern Brazil. On long-term climate variability in the region, it has been observed that: (a) the number of cold surges have diminished in time, but this does not prevent that anytime a strong cold surge can affect this region, regardless if few cold fronts passed, and (b) wintertime temperatures in the region exhibit an upward trend.

The present paper represents an assessment of the climatic impacts of wintertime cold fronts on the coffee growing areas of southern and southeaster Brazil, with emphasis on the general weather characteristics, the interannual and long term climatic tendencies of cold surges on the region, and their impacts on production and prices of coffee, documented since 1892 to the present. Also, some comments are made on the possible impacts of global warming and climate change on the agricultural activities on the region.