Timescales of soil moisture anomalies: results from two GCMs

Soil moisture anomalies dissipate over timescales that may span weeks to months. Characterizing the geographical and seasonal variations in these timescales can have important practical benefit; significant soil moisture "memory" allows long-lead forecasts of soil moisture, which have been found in recent studies to be essential for useful long-lead forecasts of precipitation in many regions. In this talk, we will present and compare the soil moisture timescales derived in two separate general circulation model (GCM) studies. Both studies employ multiple ensembles of short-term climate simulations. Timescales at a given point are effectively estimated by determining how quickly the soil moisture distribution generated in one ensemble of simulations (characterized by a unique set of initial soil moisture conditions) approaches that produced by another ensemble (characterized by a different set of initial soil moisture conditions). The talk will include a discussion of why the timescales produced by the two GCMs differ in some regions, and it will also describe the impact of soil moisture memory on simulated precipitation.