Experimental daily NCEP Eta model smoke management forecasts

The Desert Research Institute Program for Climate, Ecosystem and Fire Applications (CEFA) has begun to produce experimental smoke management products using NCEP operational Eta model forecasts. The products include 6-hourly forecasts out to 48 hours of mixing height, mean transport wind speed, mean transport wind direction and variance indicators of the wind field. The intent of these products is to provide smoke managers with guidance tools to aid in the planning and decision-making process. The advantage of these products over current traditional methods is that mixing height information is made available within the same grid domain as the Eta model (~40km), which is a much finer spatial resolution than available from the upper air observational network. Also, the Eta model output provides the necessary information to produce mixing height forecasts. CEFA is currently evaluating these products from both forecast and user perspectives. This paper will describe the methodology used in producing the forecasts, and discuss the utility of the products in smoke management planning and decision-making.