An Index for Assessing the Potential Escape of a Prescribed Burn

During the spring of 1999, several prescribed burns in northern California escaped their planned burn areas and became larger fires than intended. Though wind conditions at the time may be blamed for the initial escape, several weather related factors that were building up throughout the spring season were important contributors. These factors include precipitation, wind, temperature and relative humidity anomalies along with dead fuel moisture. The monitoring of these variables over time could provide useful information as to the potential of a prescribed burn escape. An index is being developed based on statistical methods which incorporates the variables noted above, and provides an indication of the potential for a prescribed burn escape. This paper will describe the development of the index, and demonstrate its utility in prescribed burn planning.