Numerical weather prediction for fire hazards on Oahu/Hawaii

Brush fires, especially during the summer months, are hazards that occasionally threaten the leeward (Waianae) coast of Oahu in Hawaii. The prediction of future surface wind patterns is crucial for determining whether brush fires are to become a hazard to life and property. We use the mesoscale spectral model (MSM) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Weather Service (NWS), with horizontal resolution of 2 km, to address the problem of forecasting the vulnerability of fire-prone regions under various weather conditions.

In the complex terrain of Oahu, the MSM provides a prognosis of surface parameters which can then be used as input to predict the spread of brush fires. High temperature and low humidity are indicative of areas which are prone to fire. Wind direction and speed information suggest areas where fire is likely to propagate once it starts. Accurate prediction of precipitation, if viable, would greatly aid mitigation efforts. The relative strengths of local trade winds and the diurnally varying sea breeze -- land breeze circulations are likely to signicantly influence evolving fire hazards.