Evaluation and Utilization of Scripps ECPC Fire Weather Forecasts

The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) is currently producing experimental global (200 km resolution) and regional (25 km resolution) daily forecast products out to 7 days every day; every weekend these daily forecasts are extended out to 4 weeks. Many of the ECPC products are potentially important for fire weather and climate predictions in the California and Nevada Region. ECPC products include near surface temperature, relative humidity and wind speed as well as traditional meteorological variables such as precipitation and 500 mb heights. However, we are still uncertain about the quality of these experimental forecasts and have therefore begun a systematic evaluation of the ECPC forecasts at a number of Remote Automatic Weather Station (RAWS) sites, where we have extensive historical archives of quality controlled observations. RAWS data are commonly used by fire weather forecasters and fire managers. Our goals, therefore, are to understand ECPC forecast biases and skill at these sites for various forecast lags and to determine the utility of these forecasts for fire weather forecasts as an augmentation of RAWS observations. Results of the site specific verification analysis will be presented in this talk. There are some systematic regional biases in the relative humidity and precipitation that can be empirically corrected. With these corrections, useful forecast skill for at least the first part of the month can be demonstrated.