5.8 The Effects of Daily and Interannual Climate Variability on Peanut Crop Production in Córdoba, Argentina

Tuesday, 11 January 2000: 4:30 PM
Marta G. Vinocur, Univ. of Rio Cuarto, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina; and L. O. Mearns

We investigate the effect of changes in the mean and in the daily and interannual variability of temperature on peanut yields simulated by CROPGRO V3.5 model at one location in the Córdoba province, Argentina, under irrigated and rainfed conditions. By applying an stochastic weather generator to 28 years of observed weather data, series of 99 years of simulated weather which include changes in the mean (no mean change, mean + 1.5°C, and mean + 3.5°C) and changes in the variance of temperature from 0.5 to 2.0 in 0.25 increments were generated. Temperature increase alone resulted in shortened crop cycle, slight decreased in yield in the irrigated experiment and decreased yield in the rainfed experiment. Increased variability produced yield decreases and increased crop failure in both experiments. Some complex interactions resulting from the combined mean and variance changes were found.
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