Incorporating smoldering into fire growth modelling

This paper discusses a method to incorporate smoldering fire conditions into fire growth modelling. Based upon the work of Frandsen and Hartford, equations for the probability of fire survival have been built for the Canadian forest fuel types. These are then combined with the moisture conditions as defined by the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) system and incorporated into a simple fire growth model. Such models will be useful to predict the locations of potential hot spots on large fires as well as predict the likelihood of holdover lightning-caused fires.