2.2 Evaluation of heat/health watch-warning systems: implications for practical development and application

Monday, 10 January 2000: 4:00 PM
Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. S. Kalkstein

Several competing approaches for use as the basis for heat/health watch-warning systems for U.S. metropolitan areas were rigorously tested and compared. Results are presented to illustrate the feasibility of operational watch-warning systems, the importance of mortality data for effective development of the systems, and the seasonal and regional sensitivity of heat/health relationships. Implications of the results for application to "heads-up" probability forecasts in the context of an integrated suite of climate predictions extending beyond Day 2 or 3 to encompass periods out to a season or more in advance will be examined.
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