Evaluation of heat/health watch-warning systems: implications for practical development and application

Several competing approaches for use as the basis for heat/health watch-warning systems for U.S. metropolitan areas were rigorously tested and compared. Results are presented to illustrate the feasibility of operational watch-warning systems, the importance of mortality data for effective development of the systems, and the seasonal and regional sensitivity of heat/health relationships. Implications of the results for application to "heads-up" probability forecasts in the context of an integrated suite of climate predictions extending beyond Day 2 or 3 to encompass periods out to a season or more in advance will be examined.