Real-Time Mesoscale Model Forecasts for Fire and Smoke Management: An Update

The Pacific Northwest Regional Modeling Consortium (comprised of numerous state and federal agencies) have made advances in the use of the MM5 meteorological model for real-time forecasting applications to fire and smoke management since the introduction of our work at the Second Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology (AMS, January 1998, p.161-164). These advances include improved model physics to better simulate surface winds, improved graphics that allow non-scientists to review and interpret the data, and a real-time link to the smoke dispersion model, NFSpuff. Also, output products include forecasts of vertical sounding data and plots of potential ventilation indices that are being used by state air quality regulators. MM5 forecasts were used to help anticipate smoke problems from the burning oil tanker, New Carissa and have been used on a number of prescribed fires in wildland biomass to help make management decisions (both before and during burns). On-going work to improve model resolution, model physics, output graphics, and links to the air quality models of Calpuff and Models3 continue. In addition, plans to calculate the National Fire Danger Rating Index and Haines Index from the MM5 output data are underway.