Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses

P2.4

The contribution of orographic rainfall to the extreme precipitation in Southeastern Africa in Spring 2000

Chris C. Funk, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and R. F. MacCracken

Extreme rainfall occurs when sufficient atmospheric moisture accompanies significant vertical motion. There are many sources of vertical motion in the atmosphere - frontal lifting, convergence near the surface coupled with divergence aloft, and orographic forcing, to name a few. When multiple sources of vertical motion converge, extreme precipitation may result. We examine the contribution of terrain-induced rainfall to the extreme precipitation events in Mozambique, Madagascar and South Africa during the Jan - Mar 2000 rainy season, by comparing the results of a diagnostic model of orographic rainfall to the observed patterns of precipitation, which were analyzed using the CPC/FEWS blended satellite rainfall estimation method. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data is used to drive the orographic model. We also test the potential of using the orographic model to improve current CPC/FEWS rainfall estimation techniques.

Poster Session 2, Summer Storms (Poster session)
Tuesday, 16 January 2001, 2:30 PM-5:30 PM

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