Forecasting Hurricane Rainfall Using Numerical Guidance

This paper reviews the physical mechanisms involved in the production and distribution of hurricane rainfall over land. It examines how the rainfall may be forecast using numerical models and remotely sensed data. Results of observational and modeling studies are used to analyze the moisture budgets of hurricanes, their variability, and the factors that govern the total storm rainfall rate as well as the pattern and duration of the rainfall. Examples from numerical forecasts of recent landfalling Atlantic hurricanes will be compared to verification data and used to analyze the overall predictability of hurricane rainfall.